The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has fined The City Bank, its fund manager, and five individuals for manipulating the shares of Agni Systems over a five-month trading period in 2024.

According to the regulator's monthly enforcement action report for January, City Bank has been fined Tk1 lakh despite incurring a capital loss of Tk1.55 crore from trades conducted during the investigation period.

Sanowar Khan, the bank's portfolio manager at the time, has been fined Tk1.51 crore against a capital gain of Tk1.53 crore.

His wife, Asmaul Husna, who earned Tk15 lakh, has been fined Tk1 lakh, while his brother, Anwer Parvez Khan, has been fined Tk2 lakh against a gain of Tk2.46 lakh.

Among the other individuals penalised, Abu Taher Shikder has been fined Tk62 lakh against a gain of Tk65.46 lakh. Umma Salma Nipa, who incurred a loss of Tk11.43 lakh, has been fined Tk2 lakh, and Biplob Sheikh has been fined Tk4.30 lakh against a gain of Tk4.77 lakh.

The BSEC said the manipulation took place between 25 June and 18 November 2024. During the 68 trading sessions under review, the total buy volume stood at 4.61 crore shares, while the sell volume amounted to 3.87 crore shares. Over the period, Agni Systems' share price rose sharply from Tk24.5 on 25 June to Tk41.2 on 10 October, marking a 68% increase. The price later declined to Tk28.8 by 18 November.

After reviewing trade monitoring data from the surveillance department of the Dhaka Stock Exchange, the regulator found that the accused parties were heavily involved in trading Agni Systems shares and conducted a series of transactions that influenced the share price on multiple dates.

According to the commission, the individuals violated the Securities and Exchange Ordinance, 1969 by directly and indirectly executing a series of transactions that created an artificial appearance of active trading and drove up the price of the shares.

In its response to the BSEC's show-cause notice, City Bank stated that its capital market portfolio had previously been managed by City Bank Capital Resources Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary.

Sanowar Khan was appointed as capital market fund manager with effect from 10 June 2024 and was granted authority to oversee stock market trading activities, making him solely responsible for share trading and securities analysis.

The bank claimed that Sanowar did not disclose his personal trading activities or those conducted by his relatives. It said it only became aware of these transactions following the commission's show-cause notice dated 18 August 2025. Monitoring independent personal or institutional trading activities falls outside the scope of the bank's capital market portfolio oversight, the bank added, asserting that it had no knowledge of or influence over the trades executed in the accounts of Khan or his relatives.

City Bank further noted that while it incurred a realised loss of Tk1.55 crore from Agni Systems trades during the investigation period, the fund manager and his family members made a combined realised gain of Tk1.70 crore.

Following receipt of the BSEC's enquiry letters, the bank said it removed Sanowar from the fund manager position with effect from 19 August 2025. It also reviewed its investment policy and introduced stricter ethical guidelines governing personal or associated trading activities.

The enforcement action comes amid the regulator's continued efforts to curb market manipulation and restore investor confidence through closer surveillance and stricter penalties for violations in the capital market.

The government’s development expenditure in the first seven months of the current fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26) has slumped to its lowest level in at least 16 years amid fiscal restraints and political disruptions.

Ministries and divisions spent just Tk 50,556 crore – a mere 21.18 percent of the total Annual Development Programme (ADP) outlay – during the period, shows Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation Division (IMED) data published yesterday.

During the same period in FY25, when operations were disrupted by a mass uprising and administrative instability, the ADP implementation rate stood at 21.52 percent. The rates were 27.11 percent and 28.16 percent in FY24 and FY23, respectively.

The slowdown is particularly acute in the health sector, which has recorded dismal implementation rates despite growing concerns about healthcare accessibility.

The Medical Education and Family Welfare Division has utilised only 2.98 percent of its allocation, while the Health Services Division has managed just 6.59 percent, according to the IMED.

Md Deen Islam, research director at Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID), blamed lackings in “institutional capacity” for the slow spending.

“The underperformance in the health sector reflects deeper governance challenges. In many cases, those in charge hesitate to take bold decisions, particularly when procurement-related scrutiny creates a climate of fear. That affects implementation,” he added.

The underperformance comes as Bangladesh continues to grapple with one of the world’s highest rates of out-of-pocket health expenditure.

This has led to a “structural vulnerability that demands urgent policy attention,” Islam said.

“A single chronic or terminal illness can push a non-poor family into poverty,” he warned, citing data from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey showing stagnation in key health indicators.

He emphasised that without immediate increases in health investment and execution, Bangladesh risks falling further behind on crucial development metrics.

The broader spending slump reflects multiple headwinds. For the current fiscal year, the government allocated Tk 238,695 crore for the ADP, including funds from autonomous bodies.

However, during the July-January period, utilisation of both state funds and foreign loans has declined sharply.

Foreign fund spending fell to approximately Tk 18,668 crore, while government funds amounted to Tk 28,052 crore, down from Tk 30,096 crore in FY25.

This deceleration comes as the interim government implemented a reduced, austerity-focused ADP that slowed or postponed certain projects initiated by the previous administration.

Planning ministry officials note that several contractors fled the country before completing their work following the mid-2024 political changeover, further hampering implementation.

RAPID’s Islam largely agreed, noting that smaller projects may have received less attention as larger initiatives were prioritised.

Infrastructure sectors have fared considerably better than social services.

Among the top 15 recipients of allocations, the Ministry of Water Resources achieved the highest implementation rate at 41.10 percent, followed by the Energy and Mineral Resources Division with 40.66 percent, and the Local Government Division with 36.91 percent.

For Islam, the health shortfall is particularly worrying given Bangladesh’s demographic outlook.

He warned, “Within 15 to 20 years, Bangladesh will gradually transition into an ageing society. Without adequate investment in health infrastructure and human resources, fiscal pressure will intensify.”

He urged authorities to view health spending through an economic lens, noting that Bangladesh maintains a low ratio of nurses and support staff compared to doctors.

“Expanding this workforce would improve service delivery while generating jobs. Health investment is not just social spending, it is also an economic strategy,” he said.

However, Islam said ADP implementation may accelerate under the newly elected political government.

A modest uptick in January offered limited encouragement. The month recorded 3.64 percent implementation of the revised ADP, marginally up from 3.55 percent in January 2024.

“As an elected party, the BNP will have to deliver on its pledges, including job creation, expanding health services, and reducing out-of-pocket costs,” Islam said.

Ashikur Rahman, principal economist at the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh, concurred that a full-fledged political government could help strengthen ADP spending by accelerating countrywide development activities.

Dhaka division remained the largest recipient of remittances in December, receiving nearly half of the total inflows, as migrant earnings continued to strengthen foreign currency reserves and support millions of households, according to a report by Bangladesh Bank (BB).

In December 2025, the Dhaka division received $1.60 billion, accounting for 49.93 percent of the country’s total remittances.

Chattogram division ranked second, receiving $958.45 million, or 29.73 percent of the total, while the Sylhet division came third with $267.63 million, representing 8.30 percent.

“In the current political and economic situation, marked by inflation, exchange rate fluctuations, and higher import costs, remittances have provided much-needed relief by strengthening foreign currency reserves and supporting millions of households across the country,” the central bank said in its monthly report.

District-level data showed that Dhaka district received the highest remittances at $1.15 billion. Other major recipients included Chattogram district with $360.56 million, Cumilla district with $181.89 million, and Sylhet district with $146.02 million.

Among source countries, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were the top two, sending $489.41 million and $476.04 million, respectively. The United Kingdom ranked third, contributing $404.21 million during the month.

Bangladesh Bank said remittances have been essential for maintaining economic stability amid global uncertainty and domestic challenges. It added that overseas employment plays a key role in reducing poverty and unemployment in a densely populated country like Bangladesh.

Data from the Bureau of Manpower, Employment, and Training showed that 18.07 million people received licences for overseas employment between 1976 and December 2025.

Total remittances reached $3,223.67 million in December 2025, marking a 22.17 percent increase compared to the same month a year earlier.

During the first half of the current fiscal year (July-December 2025-26), remittance inflows rose to $16,261.17 million, which was 46.01 percent higher than in the same period of the previous fiscal year.

Among scheduled banks, Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC received the highest remittances, handling $671.87 million in December. Bangladesh Krishi Bank and Janata Bank PLC ranked second and third, processing $353.52 million and $281.86 million, respectively.

The central bank said that remittance inflows usually increase during religious festivals and towards the end of the calendar and fiscal year.

Import letters of credit (LCs) opened in January climbed to $6.61 billion – the highest in 11 months – as businesses stepped up purchases ahead of the national election and the fasting month of Ramadan.

A senior official of the Bangladesh Bank confirmed the figures, adding that LC openings in January last year stood at $6.85 billion. LC settlements in January this year amounted to $6.16 billion.

Bankers and central bank officials, while talking to TBS, attributed the surge to increased imports of essential commodities ahead of Ramadan and a renewed sense of business confidence surrounding the February elections. Traders also brought in some capital machinery in anticipation of improved economic conditions.

Mohammad Ali, managing director and CEO of Pubali Bank, said LC openings typically rise before Ramadan due to higher imports of consumer goods.

"Rice, pulses, edible oil, and dates are imported in larger quantities ahead of the fasting month. LC openings generally increase during this period compared to other months," he said.

Syed Mahbubur Rahman, managing director and CEO of Mutual Trust Bank, said imports of essential commodities have increased in preparation for Ramadan, while the February elections created some optimism among businesses, prompting limited imports of capital machinery.

"If the overall business environment improves, new investments will follow, which will further boost imports of capital equipment," he said, adding that banks currently have adequate dollar liquidity.

Mahbubur further said, "There is no shortage of dollars, and businesses can access foreign currency to open LCs as needed."

However, a treasury head at a private bank noted that private sector credit growth has slowed since August 2024, reflecting subdued new investment and trade activity.

"Without new business expansion, demand for capital machinery remains limited, which in turn affects LC openings," he said.

Essential food items in high demand during Ramadan include rice, wheat, edible oil, sugar, lentils, onions, garlic, chickpeas and dates.

According to the Ministry of Commerce, demand during Ramadan alone is estimated at 3,00,000 tonnes for soybean oil, 3,00,000 tonnes for sugar, 5,00,000 tonnes for onions, 1,50,000-200,000 tonnes for chickpeas, and 60,000-80,000 tonnes for dates.

Data from the National Board of Revenue show that over the past four months, imports included 2,25,000 tonnes of onions, 3,70,000 tonnes of sugar, 47,000 tonnes of dates, 2,05,000 tonnes of lentils, nearly 4,00,000 tonnes of crude soybean oil and 1,40,000 tonnes of wheat.

The January spike in LC openings suggests a seasonal boost in trade activity, though sustained momentum will depend on broader improvements in investment and business confidence.

Private credit growth below 7%

Bangladesh Bank data shows that private sector credit growth stood at 6.10% at the end of December, remaining below 7% for seven consecutive months. This indicates that businesses are borrowing less for trade and investment.

According to bankers, major conglomerates – including Meghna Group, City Group, Square Group, Edible Oil Limited, Bashundhara Group and TK Group – have already imported most of the goods required for Ramadan.

Data also shows that imports of six essential items that are widely consumed during Ramadan rose sharply in September and October compared with the same period last year.

Soybean oil imports increased by 36%, sugar by 11%, lentils by 87%, chickpeas by 27%, split peas by 294% and dates by 231%.

India is scrambling to defend a new trade deal with the United States that critics have branded as a surrender to Washington, as countries navigate the fallout from President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs.

The deal announced this month has rattled India’s powerful farmers’ unions, who argue that cheap US imports would throttle local producers in a country where agriculture employs more than 700 million people.

Details of the deal remain sparse, limited to a joint statement and a White House factsheet, but New Delhi says an interim pact should be finalised by the end of March.

Analysts warn that other elements of the agreement could also prove volatile.

“In the Trumpian era, there is nothing called certainty,” trade expert Abhijit Das told AFP.

Even if the deal is signed in a few weeks, it would only hold until Trump “decides to impose more tariffs for any perceived inconsistency,” he said.

The most contentious pledge is India’s stated intention to buy $500 billion worth of US goods over five years. India’s annual imports from the US last fiscal year were around $45 billion.

Doubling annual purchases to $100 billion “is unrealistic”, said Ajay Srivastava of the Global Trade Research Initiative, a New Delhi-based think tank.

Aircraft purchases were a major component of this commitment but even a major expansion of Boeing aircraft orders -- decisions made by private airlines -- would fall far short, he said.

“Even if India were to add another 200 Boeing aircraft over the next five years, at an estimated cost of $300 million per aircraft, the total value would be about $60 billion.”

Some economists argue the language around purchases is non‑binding, hence it protects New Delhi if it fails to meet the goal. “Framing the target as an intention, rather than a commitment, reduces the risk of the deal later breaking down,” Shivaan Tandon of Capital Economics said in a note on Friday.

Trump’s unpredictability also continues to loom large.

He recently threatened higher tariffs on South Korea over perceived delays by Seoul in implementing a trade agreement announced last July.

Another flashpoint is Washington’s rollback of a 25 percent duty after what it described as India’s “commitment” to stop buying Russian oil.

This promise finds no mention in the joint statement and has neither been confirmed nor denied by the Indian government. India says its energy policy is driven by national interests and that the country depends on multiple sources for crude oil imports.

New Delhi’s Russian oil imports have dropped from a mid‑2025 peak of more than two million barrels a day to about 1.1 million in January.

Local reports say state-owned refiners have already started purchasing Venezuelan oil for delivery in April.

But it remains unclear if Russian purchases will fall to zero.

The outlook hinges heavily on Mumbai-headquartered Nayara Energy, partly owned by Russia’s Rosneft, which Bloomberg reported plans to keep buying around 400,000 barrels a day.

This will likely remain a bone of contention, given the Trump administration’s stance that it intends to monitor India’s imports.

“New Delhi continues to avoid publicly confirming a full halt and frames energy sourcing as driven by price and availability, which underlines ongoing ambiguity over the oil plank,” Darren Tay of BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, told AFP.

“There is tentative evidence that Indian refiners are reducing spot purchases of Russian crude, implying partial adjustment rather than a formal pledge,” Tay said.

The deal remains “too fragile and politically contested” to justify a growth forecast change for India, he added.

The Finance Division will release Tk2,000 crore to the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) within the next few days to help clear outstanding dues to private power producers amid escalating tensions over unpaid bills and disputed liquidated damages (LD).

Outgoing Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Adviser Muhammad Fouzul Kabir Khan came up with the announcement in Dhaka yesterday.

"Power producers will receive payments very soon," Fouzul said, acknowledging the strain caused by mounting arrears.

The dispute centres on BPDB's decision to calculate and impose liquidated damages for the past 30 months – a move strongly opposed by private producers.

The adviser noted that producers had challenged the decision before the Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission (BERC) but were unsuccessful.

"Power producers went to BERC challenging the decision, but they lost there. BPDB is now working on the issue to determine how to resolve both the LD and the outstanding bills," he said.

BPDB Chairman Md Rezaul Karim confirmed that the state utility has been calculating LDs for the past 30 months. He said outstanding bills would be settled only after the calculations are finalised.

"We will pay the outstanding bills owed to power producers once the LDs are calculated," he said, adding that some claims may not stand scrutiny after adjustments, though certain plants could receive payments following reconciliation.

The Bangladesh Independent Power Producers' Association (BIPPA), however, has warned that prolonged non-payment could force plants to shut down.

At a recent press conference, the association claimed that Tk13,000-14,000 crore in dues to local independent power producers (IPPs) remain unpaid. Including joint-venture plants, total arrears could exceed Tk25,000 crore.

The association warned that if at least 60% of the arrears are not settled immediately, producers may have no option but to shut down their plants.

"We will keep supplying power, but BPDB will not pay us. Who will make such a suicidal decision of spending money to generate electricity when they are not being paid?" said BIPPA President David Hasanat.

Hasanat criticised the retroactive calculation of LDs, calling it "absurd," and said the association has challenged the imposition of LD in the High Court. He alleged that LD rules are being applied in a discriminatory manner, targeting domestic entrepreneurs while foreign and joint-venture producers are treated differently.

Under Clause 13.2(1) of the Power Purchase Agreement, BPDB is required to settle bills within 40 days of submission. BIPPA claims payments are currently delayed by eight to 10 months, severely straining producers' finances.

According to the association, the payment crisis has already caused losses of around Tk8,000 crore due to currency fluctuations and rising borrowing costs. "Our borrowing costs have exploded. Fuel imports, loan servicing, opening LCs – everything," Hasanat said.

Energy analysts have warned that any disruption in oil-fired power generation could worsen electricity shortages, particularly during the peak summer months.

Shafiqul Alam, lead analyst for Bangladesh at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), said oil-fired plants accounted for 10.73% of total generation on average in the last fiscal year. Between March and May, their contribution rose to between 11.27% and 12.5%.

"If power supply from oil-fired power plants stops due to the dispute over outstanding bills, there will be severe load-shedding in the summer season," Alam warned, noting ongoing dollar shortages and logistical constraints in handling liquefied natural gas.

Last summer, oil-fired plants generated between 3,000MW and 3,500MW in peak months. This year, output could exceed 4,000MW, according to Imran Karim, former president of BIPPA.

"If the government wants to settle the dispute between BPDB and power producers, it should move away from vindictiveness and adopt a rational approach," he said.

Consumer inflation in the United States cooled slightly more than expected in January, government data showed Friday, as energy prices dipped.

Analysts say the figure allows the US central bank to cut interest rates again later this year, but warn that policymakers need to see sustained improvement in order to do so -- despite President Donald Trump’s insistence that there is virtually no inflation.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.4 percent year-on-year, the Department of Labor said, down from December’s 2.7 percent and slightly below analysts’ median forecast.

This was the lowest level since May 2025.

Trump lauded the report, telling reporters that inflation was “way down, and we have it back on track.”

Yet, affordability worries have come to the fore in recent months as price increases in areas like food weighed on households, and as Trump’s tariffs flowed through the world’s biggest economy.

Although tariffs have not triggered a broad inflation surge, firms have reported higher business costs. Many companies have tried to soften the blow by stocking up on inventory ahead of planned levy hikes and avoided passing on additional costs in full to consumers.

Late last year, Trump also broadened a slate of tariff exemptions, particularly on agriculture imports, as he came under pressure from voters grappling with soaring costs of living.

For now, CPI was up 0.2 percent on a month-on-month basis in January, inching down from December’s 0.3 percent rise.

This was helped by a 1.5 percent month-on-month slide in overall energy costs, in part due to gasoline.

But food costs remained 0.2 percent higher than in December, and were up 2.9 percent from a year ago.

Still, “this is encouraging news for many American families that have been struggling,” said Navy Federal Credit Union chief economist Heather Long in a note.

US consumers in lower income groups have shown reluctance to spend on non-essentials, the Federal Reserve noted last month.

“The tariffs have had a clear impact on products such as furniture and appliances, but the key items in many family budgets are cooling off,” Long said.

“Gas prices, used cars and medical care all declined in January,” she added.

But Diane Swonk of KPMG warned that disruptions from a recent government shutdown are likely suppressing year-over-year inflation measures.

“What’s important is that goods prices still increased,” she told AFP.

Excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, core inflation was 2.5 percent, a touch below December’s level.

“Even though consumers have seen, on average, the wages outpace inflation in recent years, it takes a long time to regain ground lost from those compounding price levels,” Swonk said.

Swonk noted that despite various tariff threats since the beginning of the year, the Trump administration’s actions have been “going in the other direction to try to mitigate those effects.”

These should bear fruit towards the back half of the year.

“We’ve still got some more bumps in inflation to endure, which is why the Fed will welcome this news, but they’re not likely to cut on it,” she said of Friday’s data. “They need to see more sustained improvement in inflation to feel comfortable about where we’re going.”

Although overall inflation has cooled, underlying price pressures, coupled with a jobs market that has proven more resilient than expected, could allow the Fed to continue holding interest rates steady for a while.

The US central bank made three rate cuts last year but has been holding off further action, seeking to bring inflation back down to officials’ two-percent target.

Despite repeated crackdowns and hefty fines by the Directorate of National Consumer Rights Protection, dishonest business practices are still running rampant in Chattogram Division.

Over the past four and a half years, 14,054 businesses have been penalised, yet "traders continue to flout the rules and exploit consumers", according to officials.

Between the 2021-22 fiscal year and November 2025-26, authorities collected Tk15.78 crore in fines, with Tk14.90 crore going to the government treasury and Tk11.16 lakh handed directly to complainants under the law.

Alongside traditional market issues, digital platforms have emerged as a new avenue for fraud. Many online shopping complaints involve anonymous or fake Facebook pages and webshops, where customers receive substandard goods or nothing at all. Lack of verifiable information often hampers the department's ability to take swift legal action.

Gaps in enforcement and public awareness

At the heart of consumer rights enforcement in Bangladesh is the fight against food adulteration.

Md Foyez Ullah, divisional deputy director of the directorate, told The Business Standard, "We give utmost attention to cases where adulteration is found and take a strict stance against those responsible. We are trying to keep these offences to a minimum."

He noted that adulteration is not always the work of organised syndicates. "It often reflects societal norms and individual mindsets. A chef at a wedding may use fake kewra water, rose water, or artificial colouring without realising the harm. The root cause is a lack of awareness and education among food preparers."

Highlighting the challenge of sustainability, he added, "Even those aware today may slip tomorrow. It's a deep-seated issue of mentality and habit."

Russel Uddin, divisional organiser of the Consumers Association of Bangladesh, told TBS, "Government initiatives are insufficient. Laws aren't properly enforced, and limited staff and a lack of awareness campaigns hinder monitoring. Temporary price drives are symbolic. Volunteers help, but lasting change needs strong pressure groups and a louder public voice."

Severe staff and logistical shortages

The directorate faces severe staff and logistical constraints. Nearly 10 million people across Chattogram district's 14 upazilas rely on just one assistant director and one office assistant for market oversight.

The absence of consumer rights offices at the upazila level hampers monitoring, forcing residents from remote areas like Chandanaish or Satkania to travel to district towns to lodge complaints. Officials note that if such offices existed, government directives on essentials like gas cylinders could be enforced simultaneously across all upazilas, preventing traders elsewhere from exploiting gaps.

"Maintaining market stability with such limited staff is extremely difficult," said Md Anisur Rahman, assistant director of the directorate. "Officials endure extreme hardship in the field. Without official vehicles, we're forced to hire transport for inspections, which often delays urgent operations."

Police support remains a major hurdle. Currently, the department relies on local police; however, jurisdictional limits prevent forces from one police station from conducting immediate operations in neighbouring areas. Securing additional force from the police line also takes time.

Someone who is aware today may lose that awareness tomorrow. Still, we continue our efforts. Legal enforcement and some fear have caused many establishments to refrain from offences."

Market oversight and penalties

Data from 2021-22 to November 2025-26 show 6,939 market inspections across 11 districts of Chattogram Division. Rising scams by unscrupulous traders have also made consumers more vigilant. During this period, 9,246 complaints were received, of which 8,565 were resolved.

Under Section 76(4) of the Consumer Rights Protection Act, 2009, 25% of fines arising from proven complaints are paid to complainants immediately, encouraging people to assert their rights.

Alongside traditional market violations, online fraud has emerged as a growing challenge. Many complaints involve anonymous or fake Facebook pages and online shops, with customers receiving substandard goods or nothing at all. Investigations often fail to locate these businesses, delaying legal action or compensation.

Fines varied across districts. The divisional office collected TK5.27 crore from 2,670 establishments. District-level collections were: Chattogram Tk2.20 crore (1,206 establishments), Cumilla Tk1.57 crore (1,614), Chandpur Tk1.33 crore (2,103), Noakhali Tk1.19 crore (1,188), Cox's Bazar Tk91.81 lakh (1,469), Brahmanbaria Tk84.33 lakh (1,698), Feni Tk78.33 lakh (836), and Lakshmipur Tk57.84 lakh (775).

Hill tract districts recorded lower fines due to fewer businesses: Khagrachhari Tk18.71 lakh (295), Rangamati Tk11.64 lakh (152), and Bandarban Tk2.17 lakh (48).

Although imports of key Ramadan commodities have increased compared to previous years, prices of several essentials are soaring in local markets. Within a span of one week, date prices have jumped by Tk50 to Tk100 per kg, depending on the variety.

Besides, prices of sugar, chickpeas, lentils, onions, and garlic have increased, adding pressure on consumers.

Traders claimed that the prices hiked due to delayed clearance of goods at ports disrupted by recent strikes, and a surge in demand following the national election, insisting that overall stock levels remain higher than demand.

Key Ramadan items include rice, edible oil, sugar, lentils, onions, garlic, chickpeas, and dates. According to sources at the Ministry of Commerce, the demand for soybean oil during Ramadan alone stands around 3,00,000 tonnes. Sugar demand is estimated at 3,00,000 tonnes, onions at 5,00,000 tonnes, chickpeas between 1,50,000 and 2,00,000 tonnes, and dates between 60,000 and 80,000 tonnes.

Data from the National Board of Revenue show that in the past four months, Bangladesh imported 225,000 tonnes of onions, 3,70,000 tonnes of sugar, 47,000 tonnes of dates, 2,05,000 tonnes of lentils, nearly 4,00,000 tonnes of crude soybean oil, and 14 lakh tonnes of wheat.

Officials say imports of these products have nearly doubled compared to the same period last year. Besides, chickpea imports alone exceeded demand by 28%.

A visit to several major markets in Dhaka, including Karwan Bazar, Chawkbazar, and Moulvibazar, as well as Khatunganj in Chattogram, revealed that date prices have increased by Tk50 to Tk100 per kg within a week.

In December, the government reduced import duty on dates from 25% to 15% with a view to keeping its market stable, but apparently the prices have risen.

Currently, loose dates are selling at Tk220 per kg, Zahidi at Tk260 to Tk280, and Dabbas between Tk550 and Tk570. Wholesale prices for these types have increased by at least Tk40 to Tk60 per kg.

Besides, Boroi dates are selling for Tk480 to Tk500 per kg, Kalmi at Tk700, Sukkari at Tk800, Mabroom between Tk850 and Tk1, 200, Maryam between Tk1,100 and Tk1,400, and Medjool between Tk1,200 and Tk1,500.

Arafat Hossain, a wholesale and retail date trader at Karwan Bazar, told The Business Standard that the price of Zahidi dates jumped Tk600 per 10-kg carton almost overnight, while Dabbas rose by Tk400 per carton. Some shipments were stuck at the port, reducing supply temporarily.

Touhidul Alam, general secretary of Chattogram Fruit Traders' Association, said Zahidi dates are currently facing a relative shortage compared to demand, claiming that a recent shipwreck involved a cargo containing dates, contributing to limited availability.

Moreover, some importers had delayed imports in anticipation of reduced duties, which also disrupted supply planning. "Apart from certain varieties, the overall market supply remains normal," he added.

Meanwhile, onion prices have risen by Tk10 per kg, sugar by Tk8 to Tk10, khesari lentils by Tk10, garlic by Tk20, and chickpeas by Tk4 to Tk8 depending on quality. Sugar is currently selling at Tk100 per kg, onions at Tk60, local garlic at Tk120, local lentils at Tk160, and chickpeas at Tk90 to Tk100.

Mohammad Mohiuddin, general secretary of Chaktai-Khatunganj Aratdar General Traders' Welfare Association, said there is no shortage of Ramadan-related products such as chickpeas, peas, and dates.

"Imports of chickpeas have been abundant, and compared to last year, prices are actually lower," he claimed.

Blaming weak monitoring during the recent election period for the price hikes, SM Nazrul Hossain, vice-president of the Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB), said the administrative transition period created an environment where officials appeared disengaged, allowing unscrupulous traders to increase prices without facing regulatory action. As a result, general consumers are bearing the brunt of the instability.

Following the elections, foot traffic in markets has surged. Retailers say markets were relatively empty in the days leading up to voting, but now shoppers are crowding stores to purchase Ramadan essentials all at once.

At Karwan Bazar, Ahmed Ullah said he regularly buys dates, not just during Ramadan. "The price has increased by Tk60 per kg. I had gone to my village to vote, so today I came to buy everything for Ramadan in one trip."

Mamun Hossain, a grocery shop owner at the kitchen market, observed that prices are relatively stable this year compared to previous seasons. Business was slow for a few days due to the national election.

The US dollar was mostly flat against peer currencies on Friday after data showed a less-than-expected increase in inflation in January, suggesting the Federal Reserve could continue to hold rates steady in the near term.

The Japanese yen was set for its strongest weekly gain in about 15 months.

US Labor Department data on Friday showed that the consumer price index rose 0.2 percent last month compared with an estimate of 0.3 percent from economists polled by Reuters.

The euro was 0.02 percent higher at $1.1873 against the dollar, but was set to gain 0.5 percent this week. Against the Swiss franc , the dollar weakened 0.22 percent to 0.76785 and was on course for a weekly loss of 1 percent.

The dollar’s behavior reflects market positioning as it awaits fresh central bank signals on the direction of interest rates, said Olivier Bellemare, senior derivatives trader at Monex Canada in Montreal.

MARKET REACTION IS ‘TIMID’

Earlier this week, data suggested the US labor market was stabilizing with a drop in the US unemployment rate amid strong jobs growth in January and a less-than-expected decrease in the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment.

The European Central Bank said Saturday it will expand access to its euro liquidity backstop to central banks worldwide, in a move aimed at boosting the single currency's global role.

The backstop mechanism, which provides funding at times of extreme financial stress, is currently only available to a handful of central banks.

The new facility will extend this to central banks worldwide, as long as they fulfil certain criteria.

"The ECB needs to be prepared for a more volatile environment," ECB chief Christine Lagarde said in a speech at the Munich Security Conference.

"As industrial policy becomes more assertive, geopolitical tensions rise and supply chains are disrupted, financial market stress is likely to become more frequent."

The ECB wants to prevent these tensions from leading to forced sales of euro-denominated securities, so it plans to guarantee central banks that euro liquidity will be available when needed, she said.

"The availability of a lender of last resort for central banks worldwide boosts confidence to invest, borrow and trade in euros, knowing that access will be there during market disruptions," she said.

With the dollar having steadily lost value since US President Donald Trump returned to office, Lagarde has previously talked up the possibility of boosting the prominence of the euro.

The new system will be introduced from the third quarter of 2026.

The facility, known as "repo lines", was introduced on a temporary basis in 2020 during the coronavirus pandemic.

It was used again after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 to provide euro liquidity to a few central banks outside the eurozone.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) downgraded two companies—Aftab Automobiles and Navana CNG—to the Z category for failing to disburse approved dividends to their shareholders within the stipulated timeframe.

In separate disclosures on its website yesterday, the bourse said it placed the shares of the two companies in the Z category with effect from 15 February.

Following the downgrade decision, the share prices of both companies declined yesterday, DSE data showed.

As per listing rules, a company gets 30 days to pay off dividends to its shareholders after approval of the declared dividends.

A directive, issued by the stock market regulator in May 2024, mandates that if a listed company fails to pay or disburse at least 80% of the declared or approved dividend within the stipulated timeframe, it will be downgraded to the Z category.

Navana CNG

The company's board recommended a 10% cash dividend exclusively for general shareholders, excluding sponsors and directors. Shareholders at its AGM approved the dividend on 29 December.

Despite the expiry of the 30-day mandated timeframe after approval, the engineering sector firm failed to disburse the dividend to its shareholders.

As a result, to comply with the regulator's directive, the bourse downgraded Navana CNG to the Z category.

Following the decision, its share price declined by 0.92% to Tk21.50 on the DSE.

In FY25, the company posted a profit of Tk68 lakh, with earnings per share (EPS) of Tk0.10.

Aftab Auto

After returning to the A category from the Z category two months ago — following the disbursement of its FY24 dividend — Aftab Automobiles has once again been downgraded to the Z category after failing to pay dividends for FY25.

The company recommended a 10% cash dividend for FY25, which was approved at its AGM held on 29 December.

However, it failed to disburse the approved dividend to shareholders, prompting the DSE to downgrade its shares to the Z category.

Aftab Automobiles' share price declined by 1.59% to Tk31 yesterday on the DSE.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) and Impact Investment Exchange (IIX), a global pioneer in sustainable finance, today (15 February) signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to collaborate on introducing and promoting Orange capital instruments in Bangladesh's capital market.

DSE Managing Director Nuzhat Anwar and IIX Founder and Chief Executive Officer Durreen Shahnaz inked the MoU at the DSE board room, marking a significant step toward building an inclusive, gender-smart and climate-aligned market ecosystem.

The partnership combines IIX's global leadership in impact investing and gender-lens finance with DSE's central role in developing the country's capital market.

Symbolising the colour of United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 5 on gender equality, the Orange Movement seeks to mobilise $10 billion at the intersection of gender equality and climate action.

Under the agreement, DSE will explore facilitating the listing of Orange Bonds and Sukuk under a dedicated thematic or sustainable finance category, subject to regulatory approvals.

The collaboration will also focus on strengthening market readiness, raising awareness, and engaging regulators to position Orange instruments as credible thematic debt securities.

"Capital markets play a vital role in channeling long-term finance toward national development priorities," said Nuzhat Anwar, adding that the partnership reflects DSE's commitment to deepening the capital market while promoting sustainable financial instruments that deliver measurable social and environmental impact alongside financial returns.

Shahnaz said Bangladesh stands at a critical juncture in aligning its financial system with inclusive growth priorities. She voiced confidence that adopting global best practices would help attract international investors while reinforcing trust, transparency, and stronger global linkages.

The MoU also outlines joint advocacy, investor engagement, workshops and policy dialogues with regulators, financial institutions and development partners to advance sustainable finance innovation in Bangladesh.

Chinese tourists are expected to travel overseas in greater numbers during the upcoming Lunar New Year break, with popular destinations including Russia, Australia, Thailand and South Korea, while Japan has started to lose some of its appeal, Reuters reported.

The Lunar New Year—also known as the Spring Festival—is one of China’s longest holidays. In 2026, it will run for nine days from February 15, one day longer than usual, ushering in the Year of the Horse.

Chinese authorities expect a record 9.5 billion passenger trips during the associated 40-day Spring Festival travel rush, up from 9.02 billion last year. Officials hope the longer holiday will encourage more travel both domestically and abroad.

Zhou Weihong of Shanghai-based Spring Tour, the travel arm of budget carrier Spring Airlines, said Thailand has returned to being the top outbound destination because of its warm weather while much of China remains cold.

Against an uncertain economic backdrop, the report noted that many consumers appear to be seeking a brief escape. A prolonged property downturn has eroded household wealth, while uneven post-pandemic growth has fuelled job insecurity.

Studies cited in the report suggest Chinese consumers are placing greater priority on spending on “experiences”. McKinsey has described this as a deeper shift in how China consumes.

For domestic trips, demand is split between warm-weather destinations such as Hainan and snow-focused trips such as Changbai Mountain in Jilin province in northeastern China.

Russia surges on visa waiver; Australia up more than 100%

Bookings to Russia on Spring Tour’s platform have more than doubled from a year earlier, with northern Europe also seeing similar growth. Sienna Parulis-Cook of Dragon Trail Research said Chinese travel to Russia is likely to keep rising this year, helped by Moscow’s move in December to waive visas for visitors from China.

Meanwhile, Trip.com Group said the recovery in long-haul outbound travel has driven the number of Chinese tourists travelling to Australia to rise by more than 100 percent from a year earlier.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange rallied sharply today (15 February), the first trading session after the BNP's landslide victory in the 13th national election, with the benchmark index climbing to a five-month high amid a surge in investor participation.

The benchmark DSEX index advanced 200 points, or 3.71%, to close at 5,600, approaching the five-month peak of 5,636 recorded on 8 September 2025. The blue-chip DS30 index gained 86 points to finish at 2,145.

Market breadth was overwhelmingly positive, with 364 issues advancing, 26 declining and four remaining unchanged.

Trading activity also rebounded strongly. Daily turnover jumped 61% to Tk1,275 crore, nearing the five-month high of Tk1,400 crore recorded on 8 September 2025.

On the other side, the Chittagong Stock Exchange also witnessed a sharp rally. Its general index CSCX jumped 282 points to reach 9,555, while the all-share price index CASPI gained 484 points to close at 15,518. Turnover at the Chattogram bourse jumped 162% to Tk24.65 crore.

The oath-taking of the newly elected members of parliament and the cabinet members of the new government is likely to take place tomorrow.

The Election Commission issued a gazette notification on Friday for the 13th parliamentary election, officially confirming the winners for 297 out of 299 seats where polling had been held.

The BNP secured 209 seats in the 12 February polls while Jamaat-e-Islami secured 68 seats.

Minhaz Mannan Emon, director of the DSE, told TBS that in response to long-standing investor demands, the BNP included a specific roadmap for capital market development in its election manifesto.

"Investors now want to see the successful implementation of that roadmap," he said.

Emon alleged that during the past 15 to 17 years under what he described as a "fascist government," the capital market was subject to widespread plundering and mismanagement.

"The market was pushed to the brink of destruction," he said, adding that thousands of investors were financially devastated during this period.

He noted that affected investors now have high expectations from the new government. "There are strong hopes and aspirations among affected investors. We want to see the successful implementation of the commitments made toward the stock market," Emon said.

In response to long-standing investor demands, the BNP included a specific roadmap for capital market development in its election manifesto. Investors now have high expectations from the new government.
Minhaz Mannan Emon, Director, DSE

Asif Khan, chairman of EDGE AMC Limited and president of CFA Society Bangladesh, said that the DSE gained 3.71% following BNP's victory. Historically, DSE returns had a standard deviation of about 0.8% to 1.1%. By that logic, today's increase is a more than 3 standard deviation move.

If financial markets were normally distributed, such a move would only happen about once a year. Financial markets are, however, not normally distributed and tend to have fat tails. Nevertheless, the move is a big one, he added.

In August 2024, right after the interim government took over, the stock market had a similar euphoric phase. Market returns on 6, 7 and 8 August were 3.77%, 3.04% and 5.44% respectively, Asif said. This did not eventually sustain and the market fell below the levels of 5 August. The key lesson is that eventually fundamentals will drive markets, he said.

Nevertheless, events such as elections are important. Uncertainty is the enemy of financial markets and elections give some stability, Asif said. So from that logic, the reaction of the market is not entirely unwarranted. However, after the initial euphoria, it will be the actions that determine the path, he said.

On the positive side, he noted that valuations remain low, interest rates appear to have peaked and money supply growth could resume, driven by external surpluses and a widening fiscal deficit. Pressure on the government to reduce policy rates is also likely to intensify, factors he described as supportive of equities, Asif said.

Abu Ahmed, chairman of the Investment Corporation of Bangladesh, said that investors have shown strong confidence in the BNP's election manifesto.

As a result, the market has gathered momentum and the DSE's benchmark index has posted a significant gain, he explained. Abu Ahmed expressed optimism that the upward trend will continue in the coming days.

However, he stressed that sustaining this positive momentum will depend on improvements in macroeconomic fundamentals.

Abu Ahmed said these include rationalising interest rates, accelerating export growth, attracting foreign direct investment, improving the ease of doing business ranking, strengthening the domestic investment climate and addressing structural weaknesses in a timely manner.

Overall macroeconomic stability, he noted, will hinge on how effectively and swiftly these challenges are tackled.

The interim government has identified several fundamentally strong local and multinational companies for potential listing on the stock market, he mentioned.

The ICB chairman added that a committee formed for this purpose is already working on the initiative and has held multiple meetings with the companies concerned.

It is expected that a BNP-led government will take this initiative forward in a more effective manner, he said, adding that without the listing of quality companies, investor participation is unlikely to deepen, nor will it be possible to attract meaningful foreign investment.

Therefore, whoever assumes the role of finance minister must prioritise work in this area, Abu Ahmed said. "From our side, we will remain consistently active as a pressure group to ensure these measures are implemented."

BNP-linked stocks lead the rally

City Bank led the turnover chart as its shares worth Tk80 crore were traded with the price jumping by 8.52% to Tk29.30 on the day. Its two directors, Rubel Aziz and Aziz Al Kaiser, are sons of the late Abul Hashem, a former member of parliament from the BNP.

National Bank surged 9.76% to Tk4.50. The lender is associated with businessman Abdul Awal Mintoo, who won the Feni-3 seat as a BNP candidate in the election.

Mintoo's other listed company, Kay & Que, rose 8.74% to Tk470.50. Pragati Insurance gained 6.16% to Tk81, Pragati Life Insurance rose by 5.13% to Tk243.70, while Dulamia Cotton Spinning Mills climbed 4.39% to Tk138.

Dhaka Bank jumped 9.63% to Tk14.8. BNP leader Mirza Abbas, who won from Dhaka-8, is a sponsor shareholder of the bank, and his son serves as a director.

Investors have shown strong confidence in the BNP's election manifesto. As a result, the market has gathered momentum and the DSE's benchmark index has posted a significant gain.
Abu Ahmed, Chairman, ICB

Textile manufacturer Monno Fabrics soared 9.87% to Tk24.5. Its chairman, Afroza Khanom, won from Manikganj as a BNP candidate.

Sister concern Monno Ceramic advanced 9.25% to Tk90.90, while Monno Agro and General Machinery rose 7.35% to Tk397.50.

Other BNP-linked stocks, including ACME Laboratories, Quasem Industries, Saiham Cotton, Saiham Textile and Dacca Dyeing and Manufacturing Company, also posted notable gains during the session.

In contrast, shares of companies perceived to be linked to the Jamaat-e-Islami moved in the opposite direction.

Islami Bank Bangladesh fell 4.99% to Tk49.50, while Ibn Sina Pharmaceutical Industry declined 2.97% to Tk336.

Traders said the election outcome has significantly influenced investor sentiment, with the BNP's sweeping victory boosting buying interest in stocks associated with party leaders and sponsors, while shares tied to rival political affiliations faced selling pressure.

BRAC Bank PLC has recently launched a new sub-branch at Monipuripara in Dhaka.

With this addition, the bank’s sub-branch network now stands at 116, according to a press release.

Tareq Refat Ullah Khan, managing director and CEO of BRAC Bank PLC, inaugurated the sub-branch at JDPC Bhaban, Monipuripara in Tejgaon, Dhaka, as the chief guest, the press release said.

The area is well known for its Monipuri ethnic community, residential neighbourhoods and growing urban establishments, offering BRAC Bank a strong opportunity to serve a diverse customer base with more convenient and enhanced banking services.

The new sub-branch will offer a range of modern banking services, providing convenience to both individual and business customers.

Customers can avail themselves of services such as account opening, cash deposits and withdrawals, deposit pension schemes, fund transfers using EFTN and RTGS, remittance services, utility bill payments, credit cards, student file processing, consumer loans, debit cards and chequebook processing, Astha App enrolment, school banking and savings instruments, among others, except foreign exchange services.

The bank’s expansive network includes 310 branches and sub-branches, 330 ATMs, 446 SME Unit Offices and 1,117 agent banking outlets, making it one of the largest in Bangladesh.

Sheikh Mohammad Ashfaque, deputy managing director and head of the branch distribution network; AKM Tareq, senior zonal head for Dhaka North; and Taher Hasan Al Mamun, senior zonal head for Dhaka South, along with other senior officials of the branch distribution network, were also present.

LafargeHolcim Bangladesh PLC (LHB) has launched a new salinity- and sulphate-resistant cement, branded “Holcim Coastal Guard”, aiming to capture the 30-lakh-tonne market in the country’s south-western and south-eastern coastal regions.

The cement is designed to address the growing environmental challenges in coastal areas, where structures are often exposed to saline and sulphate-rich conditions, according to a press statement issued recently.

The product has been developed through the company’s in-house innovation and manufacturing capabilities in collaboration with the Innovation Center of Holcim Group in Lyon, France, leveraging the group’s Smart Blend Technology.

Bangladesh’s annual cement demand stands at around 4 crore tonnes, of which LafargeHolcim Bangladesh supplies approximately 42 lakh tonnes, said Thuhidul Islam, head of communications, CSR and sustainability at LHB, quoting the company’s technical experts.

“We have launched ‘Holcim Coastal Guard’, targeting an annual demand of three million tonnes across the coastal districts -- Khulna, Satkhira, Bagherhat, Patuakhali, Barguna, Barishal, Jhalakathi, Pirojpur, Chandpur, Bhola, Noakhali, Feni, Lakshmipur, Cox’s Bazar and Chattogram,” he said.

Chemical factories, government sanitation projects, and effluent and sewage treatment plants (ETPs and STPs) also have demand for this type of cement, he added.

He claimed that LHB is the first in Bangladesh to receive approval and introduce cement in this category.

Holcim Coastal Guard is engineered to combat the rapid deterioration of structures exposed to sulphate- and chloride-rich soils, coastal groundwater and chemical attacks in water and effluent treatment plants, ensuring longer-lasting and more resilient construction.

Mohammad Mahfuzul Hoque, commercial and logistics director of LHB, said, “This product has been developed through continuous consumer engagement, research, and a thorough understanding of the saline and sulphate impact on structures.”

Inaugurating the product as the chief guest at a city hotel in Khulna recently, he added, “We believe that Holcim Coastal Guard will help our customers build homes that remain resilient against harsh environmental challenges, providing unmatched protection against coastal erosion and decay.”

Bank Asia PLC has signed an agreement with Chef’s Table to offer Ramadan privileges to its debit and credit cardholders.

Kazi Saiful Islam, general manager for sales and operations at Chef’s Table, and Zishan Ahammad, head of cards, ADC and internet banking at Bank Asia PLC, signed the agreement at the former’s office in Dhaka recently, according to a press release.

Under the agreement, Bank Asia cardholders will enjoy a 10 percent discount at all Chef’s Table outlets throughout the holy month of Ramadan.

This collaboration reflects Bank Asia’s continued commitment to enhancing the customer experience by delivering added value and exclusive lifestyle benefits, especially during Ramadan.

Other senior officials from both organisations were also present at the signing ceremony.

With 209 seats on its own and an expected 212-seat bloc with allies, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has secured a decisive parliamentary majority. Voter turnout stood at 59.44%, and the Election Commission's announcement of results has formally closed a chapter of political uncertainty.

For the business community, that certainty matters.

But economists caution that electoral legitimacy, while necessary, is not sufficient to restore macroeconomic momentum. 

The new government inherits slowing private investment, persistent inflationary pressures, a stressed banking sector and a weak revenue base. The mandate is clear. The economic road ahead is less so.

 Keep updated, follow The Business Standard's Google news channel
From uncertainty to confidence

Professor Mustafizur Rahman, Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), describes the election outcome as a "necessary condition" for recovery — but not a guarantee.

 
"A peaceful and credible election has removed uncertainty and marked the beginning of a renewed democratic journey — an undeniably positive signal for the country's trade, commerce and overall economy. This was a necessary condition for boosting investment, as the private sector was reluctant to undertake new investments or expand existing businesses amid prolonged uncertainty," he said. 

"However, a credible election alone is not sufficient to inject dynamism into the economy or to rebuild investor confidence. To translate this political development into tangible investment outcomes, several additional enabling factors must be addressed. Most important among them are improvements in law and order and the assurance of good governance," Mustafizur added. 

 
At the same time, appropriate fiscal policy must be pursued. The ease of doing business needs to be enhanced, and the cost of doing business reduced. Necessary reforms across key economic sectors must be implemented, institutional efficiency strengthened, and overall macroeconomic stability ensured.

 
If these measures are put in place, confidence among both domestic and foreign investors will grow, leading to higher investment flows, the economist noted.

Mustafizur cautioned, "Investment will not surge from day one simply because these steps are initiated. However, they will send a strong positive signal to the market. As confidence gradually strengthens, investment will follow."

 
The emphasis is clear: Political stability must now translate into administrative predictability. For investors, law and order is not merely a security issue — it is a cost variable. Contract enforcement, customs clearance, dispute resolution and regulatory consistency all shape capital allocation decisions.

The first 100 days: Credibility on the line

For Jyoti Rahman, director of International Affairs at the Sydney Policy Analysis Center, the government's early actions will define its economic trajectory.

Ramadan is approaching — historically a period when prices of essential commodities rise. That seasonal inflation will be the administration's first credibility test.

"When a new government takes office, if it fails to immediately build confidence and credibility, that failure will have downstream effects later on."

He added, "Now consider the current moment. If the BNP government comes to power just as Ramadan begins — or right before it, since Ramadan is set to start next Wednesday or Thursday — we face a familiar and unfortunate pattern in Bangladesh: prices of essential commodities tend to rise during Ramadan. It may be onions, eggplants, or other staples. We have seen this before. Sheikh Hasina once even dismissed public concern by suggesting that people could simply avoid eating onions or eggplants. Such remarks damaged public trust.

"If the new government cannot manage the supply chain from day one, the impact on confidence and credibility will be severe. That erosion of trust will hurt the government later when it confronts larger macroeconomic challenges. As a macroeconomist, what I expect from the new government is clear: it must take supply chain management very seriously as an immediate confidence-building measure. In the long run, credibility is everything," Jyoti further said.

Second, he added, the budget is obviously critical. The interim government essentially operated with an interim framework — it did not introduce major new programmes or projects but simply kept things running.

"The new government, however, must now manage the debt legacy left behind by Hasina."  

At the same time, the new government must fulfil its campaign promises — the mandate it received from voters. So it faces a threefold challenge: servicing past debt, delivering on electoral commitments, and maintaining a sustainable fiscal framework. This will be extremely difficult. The budget is not merely a technical exercise; it is a strategic priority that requires strong communication with the public.

"Third, the government must articulate a long-term development plan. We speak of becoming a $3,000-per-capita economy, but sustaining that level requires around 10% growth and structural reform. What is the mission? What is the long-term strategy? These questions must be addressed now," Jyoti Rahman said. "The upcoming budget will therefore be more than a financial statement — it will be a declaration of intent."

The revenue question

That intent, economists argue, must include deep institutional reform — starting with the National Board of Revenue (NBR).

Zaidi Sattar, chairman of the Policy Research Institute (PRI), is blunt in his assessment, "One of the major obstacles to Bangladesh's economic progress is the institution known as the National Board of Revenue. If the new government genuinely wants to advance economic development, this institution must be thoroughly overhauled and restructured."

Reforming the NBR could unlock significant benefits for the economy. In many ways, it is the key to growth and progress. If this key is not turned properly, the entire system remains stuck. This is not a minor issue — it is a serious structural bottleneck.

He said, "In my view, the NBR is one of the most critical institutional stumbling blocks to Bangladesh's economic advancement. It must therefore be treated with the highest level of priority. Comprehensive reform — administrative, structural and governance-related — is essential if the country is to achieve sustained and inclusive economic growth."

Bangladesh's tax-to-GDP ratio remains persistently low. A narrow tax base and complex compliance regime discourage formalisation. Without reform, fiscal space will remain constrained — limiting infrastructure spending, social protection and debt management capacity.

For a government seeking to move the economy towards higher-middle-income status, revenue reform is not optional, he said.

Lessons from the past

Economists also underline what the new administration must avoid. Jyoti Rahman outlined it neatly.

"First, macroeconomic orthodoxy must be restored and protected. Political interference in banking supervision and directed lending under previous administrations weakened financial discipline. Depoliticising the banking sector and strengthening regulatory autonomy are critical," he said.

He added, "Second, fiscal populism carries risks. Large-scale projects without transparent cost-benefit analysis strain public finances and crowd out private investment.

"Third, inequality must be addressed through opportunity creation, not merely redistribution. Expanding transfer programmes without improving labour productivity, education quality and SME access to finance risks entrenching dependency rather than growth," he added.

"Finally, communication matters," he said, "Markets respond not only to policy but to signalling. Transparent engagement with the business community and development partners can anchor expectations and reduce volatility."

A narrow but decisive window

The election has delivered a stable parliamentary arithmetic. But stability must now be converted into reform momentum.

The priorities, economists agree, are immediate supply stabilisation, law and order improvements, credible budgeting, NBR reform and banking sector discipline. None are politically easy. All are economically necessary.

Investment will not surge overnight. Growth will not rebound instantly. But early, coherent steps can reset expectations. The mandate is strong. The structural constraints are real. Whether the new government can bridge the two will define Bangladesh's next economic chapter.

Chinese levies on certain EU dairy products are “unjustified”, Brussels said on Friday after Beijing imposed duties of up to 11.7 percent for five years.

“We consider these measures to be unwarranted and unjustified. We do acknowledge that these duties in the final determination are substantially lower than those proposed at the provisional stage,” EU trade spokesman Olof Gill said.

“Nonetheless, we remain firmly of the view that these investigations should not have happened in the first place, because in our assessment, the applications lacked sufficient evidence to justify the opening of such proceedings,” he added.

Gill said the EU executive would now assess the duties’ implications but vowed Brussels would defend the dairy sector’s interests in line with international trade rules.

“We will look at what our options are from here, including the possibility of taking action at the World Trade Organization,” Gill told reporters in Brussels.

Beijing said on Thursday the “anti-subsidy levies” will be imposed after an investigation found “certain dairy products originating from the EU were subsidised, causing substantial damage to the dairy industry in China.

The rates will be applied from Friday and range from 7.4 percent to 11.7 percent, down from the 21.9 percent to 42.7 percent China imposed in December.

They hit a range of items, including fresh and processed cheese, curd, blue cheese and some milk and cream, the Chinese commerce ministry said.