Stocks fell and the US dollar strengthened on Friday as uncertainty over the Iran war continued to disrupt energy supplies, heightening concerns over fuel prices and interest rates.

The price of oil crossed $100 per barrel even as an Indian tanker sailed out of the Strait of Hormuz and the US put forth measures to try to ease supply concerns.

All three major US stock indexes logged daily and weekly declines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished Friday down 0.25%, the S&P 500 fell 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.9%.

European shares extended their declines as well, with Europe's STOXX 600 down 0.5% on Friday. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe fell 0.9%.

The dollar has become the safe haven of choice during the tumult, putting most other currencies under pressure. The US currency gained for the second consecutive week, up 0.8% on the day against a basket of currencies.

Oil price driving market

President Donald Trump said the US was going to be hitting Iran "very hard over the next week," shortly after issuing a partial 30-day waiver for purchases of sanctioned Russian oil, hoping to ease prices.

Front-month WTI crude futures settled at $98.71 per barrel, up 3.11%. Brent rose 2.67% to $103.14, settling above $100 per barrel for the first time since August 2022.

Traders are trying to predict how long the disruption to oil supplies will last.

"Headlines are coming at the market like water from a fire hose, which is impacting the price of oil, and consequently, financial markets," said Mitch Reznick, group head of fixed income at Federated Hermes.

With Iran stepping up attacks across the Middle East as its new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane closed, investors are bracing for a prolonged conflict and higher oil prices.

The spectre of rising inflation has led markets to rapidly reprice what they expect from central banks this year, with traders now anticipating just 20 basis points of easing from the Federal Reserve compared to 50 bps of cuts priced in last month.

Two-year Treasury yields, which typically move in step with Fed interest rate expectations, hit a six-month high on Thursday.

Elsewhere, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.3% in January on a monthly basis, in line with economists' estimates.

At the same time, US economic growth slowed more sharply than initially thought in the fourth quarter amid downward revisions to consumer spending and business investment, government data showed on Friday.

"With markets laser-focused on oil prices and geopolitics, today's numbers may mostly fly under the radar," Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said in an email.

"Despite signs of economic softening, more sticky inflation data simply strengthens the idea that the Fed will remain on the sidelines."

Shifting rates outlook

Interest rate futures that had been priced for two quarter-point cuts by the end of the year before the conflict began are now barely pricing in one.

For US government bond trading on Friday, the two-year note yield fell 3.3 bps to 3.73% after hitting its highest level since August 22 on Thursday. US 10-year notes ticked up to 4.283%.

Investor focus will switch to a slate of policy meetings next week, with the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England all due to meet, with most expected to keep rates unchanged.

In currencies, the euro fell 0.8% to $1.1417, while the yen hit its weakest since July 2024 at 159.66 per US dollar on Friday as Japan warned it was ready to take action to protect against yen declines.

Analysts said the bar for intervention is higher this time around, as any action now could prove futile in the face of relentless dollar buying.

Gold was 1.27% lower at $5,014 per ounce on Friday, capping a drop on the week.

The benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSEX) rebounded this week, paring some of the previous week's steep losses as bargain hunters returned to scoop up undervalued blue-chip stocks, even though overall sentiment remained cautious amid escalating Middle East conflict.

The week began in turmoil on Sunday, with the DSEX plummeting 232 points, or 4.42 per cent, marking its largest single-day decline in six years. The sharp sell-off was triggered by intensifying conflict in the Middle East.

Despite the bearish start, the market demonstrated resilience over the subsequent four trading sessions of the week. Buoyed by signs of a potential de-escalation in the conflict and easing local concerns regarding immediate fuel shortages in Bangladesh, investor confidence gradually returned.Import/export consultation

At the end of the week, the DSEX had recovered 128 points, or 2.43 percent, to settle at 5,368. This weekly gain provided a partial cushion against the 359-point loss recorded in the previous week.

Market analysts attributed the turnaround to value-seeking behaviour rather than a full restoration of bullish sentiment.

"Many fundamentally strong stocks fell to lucrative price levels after the recent sharp correction, which attracted buyers," said Akramul Alam, head of research at Royal Capital.

He noted that institutional investors also increased exposure to well-performing banking shares as valuations became more attractive.

Market optimism was further bolstered after US President Donald Trump indicated that the conflict involving Iran could be nearing an end, easing fears of potential fuel supply disruptions.

Global oil prices reflected the volatility, with Brent crude falling over 7 per cent to $91.94 per barrel on Tuesday after Monday's three-year peak of $120, before rising again near $100 on Thursday.

Investor confidence also got a boost after Bangladesh Bank raised the prior-approval threshold for foreign capital repatriation from Tk 100 million to Tk 1 billion, aligning rules with international practices and encouraging foreign inflows into undervalued stocks.Import/export consultation

The policy change encouraged foreign investors to channel fresh funds into undervalued stocks, market participants said.

In its weekly market analysis, EBL Securities said, the market witnessed a sustained recovery this week, rebounding from the steepest single-day decline in six years recorded in the opening session, as bargain hunters turned back to accumulate equities at attractive price points amid easing concerns over the potential market impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict.

Still, many investors remained cautious amid geopolitical uncertainty and the absence of a clear ceasefire in the Middle East. Bangladeshi businesses have already expressed deep concerns, saying the intensifying conflict may pose fresh challenges and drive up the cost of doing business.

The blue-chip DS30 index climbed 55 points to close at 2,066, while the Shariah-based DSES index gained 31 points to 1,079.

Price surge of blue-chip stocks, including Islami Bank, LafargeHolcim Bangladesh, City Bank, Square Pharma, Beximco Pharma, Grameenphone and BRAC Bank, largely contributed to the market index surge. These seven stocks accounted for a 54-point gain in the DSEX.

Islami Bank alone accounted for a 16.3 point gain in the DSEX as its share jumped 6.5 per cent after the bank said its board had approved a US firm as a strategic investor in its subsidiary mCash this week.

The proposed strategic investment is expected to strengthen the capital base of mCash and accelerate the expansion of digital financial services under the mobile financial services (MFS) platform, the bank said.

However, market liquidity remained subdued. Total turnover on the DSE dropped to Tk 26.57 billion from Tk 34.82 billion the previous week, with average daily turnover falling 24 per cent to Tk 5.31 billion.

Gainers significantly outnumbered losers, with 324 issues rising, 38 falling and 27 remaining unchanged among the 389 traded securities.

All sectors posted gains, led by cement, which gained 7.6 per cent, followed by telecom, non-bank financial institutions, banking, pharma, power, and engineering.

Orion Infusion was the most-traded stock with Tk 1.43 billion in turnover, followed by City Bank, Olympic Industries, BRAC Bank, and Robi Axiata.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange also rebounded, with the All Shares Price Index (CASPI) rising 155 points to 14,980 and the Selective Categories Index (CSCX) gaining 100 points to 9,160.

The port city bourse traded 43.3 million shares and mutual fund units, with turnover of Tk 1.66 billion.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) is working to introduce a comprehensive framework to define and regulate public interest companies (PICs), aiming to restore regulatory control over capital issuance and prevent misuse in the securities market.

The draft rules, which will be published soon for public opinion, seek to repeal a 2019 exemption that allowed non-listed companies to raise capital without prior BSEC approval.

Under Section 8(1) of the Securities and Exchange Commission Act 1993, the BSEC is tasked with ensuring proper issuance of securities, protecting investor interests, and developing the securities market. But the exemption granted in 2019 removed the need for non-listed companies to seek commission permission for capital raising, a senior BSEC official told The FE.

As a result, the regulator lost oversight over a large segment of capital issuance.

Currently, companies only submit a return of allotment to the Registrar of Joint Stock Companies and Firms (RJSC), which records the filing without examining or regulating the issuance.

According to the official, the absence of regulatory scrutiny created opportunities for misuse. In some cases, companies allegedly inflated their capital structure without adequate asset backing and later entered the market through initial public offerings (IPOs).

Proposed definition of public interest companies

Under the draft framework currently being finalised, the BSEC has outlined specific conditions for classifying companies as PICs and regulating their capital-raising activities.

According to the proposed structure, entities dealing directly with public funds or securities -- such as banks, financial institutions, insurance companies, stockbrokers, stock dealers and merchant banks -- would automatically fall under the PIC category regardless of capital size.

All listed companies would also be classified as PICs.

Financial thresholds for PIC classification

Companies meeting any of the following financial criteria may also be classified as PICs:

- Public limited companies with paid-up capital exceeding Tk 50 million.

- Private limited companies with capital above Tk 150 million.

- Companies with annual revenue exceeding Tk 1 billion.

- Companies borrowing Tk 200 million or more from banks or other public sources

Even privately held companies meeting these thresholds would be considered PICs due to their involvement with public money or stakeholders.

Capital raising rules under consideration

The draft framework introduces specific conditions linking company size with fundraising methods:

-- Companies with capital exceeding around Tk 500 million may be required to raise funds through an IPO, sharing ownership with the public.

-- Firms with capital between Tk 50 million and Tk 500 million could use qualified investor offers.

-- Private placements to outsiders would be limited to a maximum of 20 investors to prevent informal conversion of private offers into public fundraising.

Disclosure and Compliance Requirements

PICs would face mandatory public disclosures even if they do not raise capital via the regulator.

The disclosure standards include maintaining a functional website with details on the company, directors, audited financial statements, annual reports, and contact information.

The website may also be linked with the RJSC database for enhanced transparency.

Digital Approval System

To streamline the process, the commission is also exploring the introduction of a digital platform that would allow companies to apply for capital issuance approvals online.

"This will ensure that companies can apply from anywhere and receive approvals online, making the process faster and more efficient," said the official.

The Commission plans to finalise the proposals after further consultations and the draft rules will be placed for public opinion before implementation.

When asked, Md Abul Kalam, Director and Spokesperson at BSEC, confirmed that the commission is working on the draft rules and will publish them for public feedback.

Struggling under heavy classified loan burdens, several non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) have emerged as top performers in the stock market, posting sharp price increases in February after months of steep declines triggered by liquidation concerns.

According to data from the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), the share prices of eight troubled NBFIs surged between 145% and 224% during the month, even though most of them remain under severe financial distress and face potential liquidation.

The rally came after their share prices had earlier plunged to historic lows amid continuous sell-offs driven by investor fears that shareholders could lose their entire investments if the institutions were wound up.

At one point, the share prices of some NBFIs dropped below Tk1 for the first time in the history of Bangladesh's capital market.

In response, the DSE introduced a new trading rule for such ultra-low-priced stocks. The bourse fixed the minimum price movement (tick size) for shares trading below Tk1 at Tk0.01, while the existing tick size for equities priced above Tk1 remains Tk0.10.

Despite the weak fundamentals, these beaten-down stocks staged an extraordinary rebound in February.

Data show that the share price of Bangladesh Industrial Finance Company soared by 224% during the month to Tk5.50 per share.

Premier Leasing and Finance jumped 216% to Tk1.70 from Tk0.57 at the beginning of February. People's Leasing and Financial Services and FAS Finance and Investment both climbed 174% to Tk1.70 each.

International Leasing and Financial Services rose 171% to Tk1.60, Prime Finance and Investment advanced 167% to Tk4, while Fareast Finance and Investment gained 154% to Tk1.70.

GSP Finance also recorded a sharp increase, rising 145% to Tk4.96 per share.

Market insiders say the rally reflects the long-standing tendency of many investors in Bangladesh's capital market to speculate on junk stocks despite their high risks.

Usually investors here like to bet on weak stocks hoping for quick gains. Sometimes the risk pays off, but often it ends with investors losing their hard-earned money," said market insiders.

They also noted that investor sentiment shifted after the change in the governor of Bangladesh Bank. Many traders appeared to assume that the planned liquidation of troubled NBFIs might not proceed as earlier indicated, prompting renewed speculative buying in these distressed stocks.

Abu Ahmed, chairman of the Investment Corporation of Bangladesh and a capital market analyst, recently told The Business Standard that many investors prefer short-term trading gains rather than long-term.

He said abnormal price surges are often driven by manipulation in junk stocks. Once such stocks start rising sharply, many investors rush to concentrate their investments in them in hopes of quick profits.

The capital market analyst advised investors to focus on fundamentally strong companies instead, although he acknowledged that the number of quality stocks in the market remains limited.

The surge in prices comes against the backdrop of ongoing regulatory actions aimed at reviving or resolving scam-hit NBFIs.

On 5 January, then governor of Bangladesh Bank, Ahsan H Mansur, said at a press briefing that nine NBFIs would be declared non-viable within a week. He also announced that independent auditors would be appointed to assess the actual financial conditions of the institutions.

Following the announcement, panic selling swept through the shares of weak financial institutions as investors feared a complete erosion of shareholder value.

However, many investors were unable to exit their positions because buyers virtually disappeared from the market, leaving large volumes of unexecuted sell orders throughout the trading day.

"The market was flooded with sell orders, but there were practically no buyers," a broker said at the time. "Investors were trying to cut losses, but confidence had completely evaporated."

Later, on 27 January, the central bank decided to liquidate six NBFIs plagued by irregularities, corruption and prolonged mismanagement, while allowing three others an additional three months to improve their financial conditions.

The institutions granted time include Bangladesh Industrial Finance Company, GSP Finance Company and Prime Finance and Investment.

Those set for liquidation include FAS Finance, Premier Leasing, Fareast Finance, Aviva Finance, People's Leasing and International Leasing.

Financial data show that most of these institutions were already in deep distress.

As of September 2025, many had accumulated massive losses and recorded deeply negative net asset values.

International Leasing alone posted accumulated losses exceeding Tk5,100 crore, with its net asset value per share falling to minus Tk219 and a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio approaching 98%.

People's Leasing reported losses of more than Tk4,800 crore with an NPL ratio nearing 99%, while FAS Finance showed an almost 100% NPL ratio along with heavy negative equity.

Similar financial distress is evident at Premier Leasing, Fareast Finance, First Finance, GSP Finance and BIFC, highlighting years of weak governance, reckless lending and capital erosion.

The central bank's decision follows a circular issued on 21 December that brought NBFIs under the Bank Resolution Ordinance 2025, empowering the regulator to take decisive action, including liquidation, against institutions that remain in prolonged distress and fail to protect depositors' funds.

Earlier, on 30 November, the board of Bangladesh Bank had given preliminary approval to liquidate nine NBFIs, including People's Leasing and International Leasing.

Stocks at the Dhaka bourse staged a notable rebound last week as improving investor sentiment and bargain hunting drove the key indices sharply higher amid easing concerns surrounding the ongoing Middle East war and its potential impact on the domestic economy.

The benchmark DSEX index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange surged 127 points, or 2.43%, to close the week at 5,368.

The blue-chip DS30 index also posted a strong gain, advancing 54 points, or 2.72%, to finish at 2,066.

Market breadth remained strongly positive during the week, with 324 issues advancing, 38 declining and 27 remaining unchanged.

Despite the broad-based price appreciation, market activity remained relatively subdued as investors adopted a cautious stance.

Average daily turnover fell by 24% week-on-week to Tk531 crore, reflecting a wait-and-see approach among market participants who preferred to monitor whether the upward momentum would be sustained before making fresh investment decisions.

However, the overall market capitalisation of the Dhaka bourse increased by approximately Tk9,000 crore during the week, indicating a steady return of confidence among investors after the previous week's sharp downturn.

EBL Securities, in its weekly market review, said the capital market experienced a sustained recovery throughout the week, bouncing back from the steepest single-day fall recorded in the past six years during the opening session. The brokerage house noted that the sharp correction at the start of the week created attractive entry points for investors, prompting bargain hunters to accumulate fundamentally strong stocks.

Although the week began under persistent bearish pressure, sentiment gradually improved as signals emerged of a possible de-escalation in the Middle East war.

At the same time, concerns regarding immediate disruptions to the country's fuel supply began to subside, which helped restore confidence among market participants.

A managing director of a leading brokerage firm said the government appeared capable of overcoming any potential fuel shortages stemming from the Middle East tensions.

Bangladesh secured a significant quantity of fuel supplies during the past week, which helped ease investor concerns and contributed to renewed optimism in the stock market.

He also noted that the central bank's recent decision to ease capital repatriation rules for foreign investors was a positive development for the capital market. The move is expected to improve the investment climate and may encourage greater participation from foreign portfolio investors in the coming months.

Additionally, speculation surrounding a possible change in the leadership of the stock market regulator also played a role in drawing investors back to the market, he added.

Sector-wise participation showed that investors were most active in the banking sector, which accounted for 21.3% of total market turnover. The pharmaceutical sector followed with 15.2%, while the textile sector captured 9.5% of the week's trading activity.

Among individual stocks, Islami Bank Bangladesh, LafargeHolcim Cement, City Bank, Square Pharmaceuticals and Beximco Pharmaceuticals were the major contributors to the upward movement of the benchmark index during the week.

In terms of turnover, Orion Infusion emerged as the most traded stock, followed by City Bank, Olympic Industries, BRAC Bank and Robi.

All major sectors posted positive returns during the week. The cement sector led the gains with a 7.6% increase, followed by the information technology sector with 5.3% and life insurance with 4.6%.

Interestingly, many Z-category stocks and loss-making non-bank financial institutions dominated the gainers' list. International Leasing, Peoples Leasing, FAS Finance and Fareast Finance each soared 50%, while Premier Leasing advanced 42.31%.

On the other hand, Saif Powertec was the worst-performing stock of the week, declining 6.94%. It was followed by Green Delta Insurance, Ring Shine Textile, Dula Mia Cotton and Hami Industries, which also posted notable losses.

Foreign investors increased their exposure to several blue-chip stocks in February, particularly in the banking and pharmaceutical sectors, while pulling back from companies including Olympic Industries, Grameenphone (GP) and DBH Finance.

Data from the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) show that foreign portfolio investment rose last month, with overseas investors purchasing shares in a number of top-tier companies led by Square Pharmaceuticals and BRAC Bank.

Square attracted the largest foreign inflow, with overseas investors buying shares worth about Tk160 crore during February. The purchases increased foreign shareholding in the pharmaceutical giant to 15.50% from 14.70% in January.

BRAC Bank ranked second in terms of foreign investment inflow. Foreign investors bought shares worth around Tk110 crore, raising their ownership in the bank to 36.72% from 36.05% a month earlier.

Other companies that recorded smaller increases in foreign investment included United Commercial Bank, Uttara Bank and IDLC Finance.

Overall, foreign investors increased their holdings in 25 listed companies during the month, purchasing shares worth about Tk280 crore. Their stakes also rose in firms such as Marico Bangladesh, Envoy Textiles, Walton Hi-Tech Industries and Unique Hotel and Resorts.

Selling in several large firms

Foreign investors also sold shares in several major companies during the same period, with the biggest outflow recorded in Olympic Industries.

Overseas investors offloaded shares worth about Tk80 crore in Olympic Industries, reducing their stake in the company to 30.26% from 32.83% in January.

Telecom giant Grameenphone also experienced selling, with overseas investors selling shares worth Tk25 crore during the month. Foreign holdings in the company slipped slightly to 0.60% from 0.67%.

Other companies that saw foreign investment outflows included DBH Finance, BSRM Limited and Jamuna Oil Company.

In total, foreign investors reduced their holdings in 16 companies, selling shares worth Tk126.35 crore during February.

Foreign participation still limited

Despite the selective inflows and outflows, foreign participation in Bangladesh's stock market remains relatively limited. According to DSE data, total foreign investment in the market currently stands at around Tk13,000 crore.

Out of roughly 360 listed companies on the Dhaka bourse, only about 132 currently have any level of foreign shareholding, highlighting the narrow base of overseas participation.

Among listed firms, BRAC Bank has the highest level of foreign ownership at around 36%, followed by Olympic Industries with more than 30%.

Other companies with significant foreign shareholding include Beximco Pharmaceuticals, Navana Pharmaceuticals and Renata.

Structural barriers to investment

Market analysts said foreign investors tend to concentrate their investments in a small number of fundamentally strong companies because of the limited availability of high-quality listed firms.

They note that Bangladesh's stock market contains many weak or poorly governed companies, often referred to by investors as "junk stocks", which discourages broader foreign participation.

Analysts also cite several structural barriers that limit overseas investment, including tax complexities such as capital gains tax issues, policy inconsistency and concerns about corporate governance.

Brokerage officials added that a significant portion of the recorded foreign investment actually comes from non-resident Bangladeshis rather than large international funds.

Genuine foreign institutional investors are believed to be actively present in no more than 25 listed companies, primarily large-cap firms with strong financial performance and adequate market liquidity.

Among the global investors active in Bangladesh are institutions linked to Norway's sovereign wealth fund, along with a small number of investment firms based in the United Arab Emirates and Europe, according to market insiders.

A managing director of a leading brokerage firm said foreign investors remain cautious because the market offers limited diversification opportunities.

Bangladesh has a relatively small pool of large-cap stocks that meet the governance, risk and liquidity standards required by global institutional investors, he said.

Policy move to attract foreign funds

In a move aimed at attracting more foreign investment, Bangladesh Bank recently relaxed rules governing capital repatriation by overseas investors.

In a circular issued on 9 March, the central bank raised the threshold for prior approval required for capital repatriation to Tk100 crore from the previous Tk10 crore limit.

The measure is intended to align Bangladesh's regulatory framework with international standards and simplify procedures for foreign investors seeking to repatriate funds.

The Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) signed between Bangladesh and Japan on February 6, in Tokyo is poised to transform the trajectory of bilateral trade between the two countries, said Tareq Rafi Bhuiyan (Jun), president of the Japan-Bangladesh Chamber of Commerce and Industry (JBCCI).

In an interview with The Daily Star, Bhuiyan described the agreement as Bangladesh’s first comprehensive EPA and a landmark shift from a unilateral preference-based arrangement to a structured, rules-based bilateral trade framework.

“This is not just about tariff cuts,” he said. “It institutionalises our trade relationship with Japan. It provides predictability, transparency and legal certainty — all of which are essential for sustainable trade growth.”

He said Japan has long been one of Bangladesh’s key trading partners, particularly as a destination for ready-made garments (RMG) and textile products.

However, he said with Bangladesh set to graduate from least developed country (LDC) status in the near future, concerns had emerged over the possible erosion of preferential market access.

He said under the existing Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) schemes, Bangladeshi exports enjoy duty-free or preferential treatment. After graduation, those benefits would no longer automatically apply.

“Without the EPA, our exporters, especially in garments, could have faced tariffs of 8 percent to 15 percent or more in the Japanese market,” Bhuiyan said. “That would have significantly affected our price competitiveness.”

He noted that the EPA secures duty-free or reduced-tariff access for more than 7,300 Bangladeshi products, including RMG, textiles and a wide range of manufactured goods. This ensures continuity in market access and shields exporters from sudden tariff shocks.

“For our bilateral trade, this continuity is critical. It means buyers in Japan can continue sourcing from Bangladesh without disruption, and our exporters can plan long-term investments with confidence,” he added.

While garments dominate Bangladesh’s exports to Japan, Bhuiyan said the EPA opens opportunities to diversify the trade basket.

The agreement includes provisions on customs facilitation, standards, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, intellectual property and digital trade — all of which reduce non-tariff barriers and enhance transparency.

“Many exporters struggle not just with tariffs but with complex procedures and compliance requirements,” he said. “Clearer rules and improved cooperation between customs authorities will lower transaction costs and reduce uncertainty.”

He believes that sectors such as agro-processing, leather goods, light engineering products, plastics and specialised manufacturing can gradually expand their presence in Japan if supported by quality improvements and compliance with Japanese standards.

However, he acknowledged that some leather and footwear products may not receive full duty benefits under the initial framework, which could create competitive pressure in certain segments.

“Industry stakeholders have raised concerns, particularly in leather. While the overall agreement is positive, sectors that do not receive immediate duty-free access will need to focus more on quality, branding and niche positioning,” he said.

On the import side, the EPA grants Japan preferential access to Bangladesh’s expanding domestic market for more than 1,000 products, including steel, machinery, auto parts and electronics. Some tariff reductions will be phased in over periods extending up to 18 years.

Bhuiyan described the phased approach as balanced and pragmatic.

“It allows Bangladesh to liberalise gradually while giving domestic industries time to adjust,” he said. “At the same time, access to high-quality Japanese machinery and intermediate goods will strengthen our industrial capacity.”

He noted that improved access to advanced machinery and components can raise productivity in Bangladesh’s manufacturing sector, which in turn enhances export competitiveness in third-country markets.

“In bilateral trade, imports are not necessarily a threat. Strategic imports — especially capital goods and technology — can support export expansion,” he said.

Bhuiyan emphasised that the EPA has broader implications for supply chain integration between the two countries.

Japan is actively seeking to diversify and strengthen its supply chains in Asia. Bangladesh, with its competitive labour force, growing industrial zones and strategic location, can position itself as a reliable partner.

“The agreement reduces trade risks by establishing clear dispute settlement mechanisms and regulatory transparency,” he said. “This gives Japanese firms greater confidence in sourcing from and investing in Bangladesh.”

He added that improved customs cooperation and streamlined procedures will reduce delays and enhance reliability — a key factor in modern supply chains.

“As supply chains become more integrated, bilateral trade will not only grow in volume but also in sophistication,” he said.

Bhuiyan stressed that small and medium enterprises (SMEs) must be prepared to take advantage of the EPA’s opportunities.

Export-oriented SMEs in garments are already integrated into global value chains, but other sectors may require capacity building.

“Compliance with rules of origin and technical standards will be crucial,” he said. “Government agencies and business associations must work together to ensure that exporters understand and utilise the agreement effectively.”

He also pointed to the importance of upgrading logistics infrastructure, including ports and cold chain facilities, to support higher trade volumes.

“Trade agreements create opportunities, but implementation determines the outcome,” he added,

While the EPA may not result in an immediate surge in trade volumes, Bhuiyan expressed confidence that it will generate steady and sustainable growth in bilateral trade over the medium to long term.

“This agreement marks a transition from a unilateral preference system to a mutually negotiated partnership,” he said. “It creates stability for our exports and enables structured expansion of trade in both directions.”

He emphasised that the success of the EPA will depend on proactive implementation, regulatory strengthening and private sector engagement in both countries.

“The framework is now in place,” Bhuiyan said. “If we utilise it effectively, Bangladesh–Japan bilateral trade can expand in volume, diversify in composition and deepen in value addition.”

Picture this: Dhaka, 9 February 2026. Three days before a national election, in a room sealed from public scrutiny, officials sign the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) with the United States.

No parliamentary debate. No press conference. No disclosure of terms.

Twenty-four hundred kilometres west, in New Delhi, textile exporters scan the leaked fine prints. Their conclusion: Bangladesh has locked itself into buying expensive American cotton in exchange for tariff access. Production costs will rise. Profit margins will shrink.

But the real story runs deeper.

Article 4.3 contains a sleeper clause: if Bangladesh signs any agreement with a "non-market-based country" — Washington's shorthand for China or Russia — the US can cancel all preferences overnight.

Bangladesh commits to supporting US actions to protect American economic security. Dhaka agrees to restrict the unauthorised exports of US-controlled items and develop export control systems with Washington.

This is not a trade agreement. This is a strategic straitjacket, tailored in the 12 days before an election, while the nation looked away.

The missing filter

Hossain Zillur Rahman's six-point memo to the new government is essential reading — a sharp domestic diagnostic on jobless growth, mesoeconomics, and effective compassion. He is right about the internal fractures. But the world outside has fractured too.

The global economy is no longer neutral. It has become a battlefield. Western economic warfare, supply chain decoupling, and the rise of a multipolar world have transformed every major economic decision into a geopolitical choice. A power plant is not just megawatts. A 5G contract is not just bandwidth. A trade deal is not just tariffs.

Bangladesh needs a seventh signal: a dual-filter framework embedded into governance. Every decision on export diversification, energy security, and digital infrastructure must pass two tests.

First, does it advance domestic economic goals? This is Rahman's framework.

Second, does it increase or decrease our strategic vulnerability in a fracturing world? This is the missing framework, and without it, competence alone will not steer us through the storm.

The 9 February deal through both filters

Apply this dual filter to the US-Bangladesh ART agreement.

Through the first lens, the deal offers duty-free access for approximately 2,500 products. Export volumes to the United States could rise from $8.7 billion to $12 billion within two years. On paper, this deal appears to advance national interests.

The second lens reveals a straitjacket. Tariff-rate quota volumes for apparel will be determined by US textile imports. Garments made using Indian, Brazilian or African cotton may not qualify for preferential access. Bangladesh's entire apparel value chain must pivot toward higher-cost US inputs.

Worse, sovereignty clauses restrict future foreign policy. Sign an agreement with Beijing that Washington deems harmful? The deal terminates. Purchase nuclear reactors from Russia or China? Explicitly prohibited. Pursue digital cooperation with non-Western partners? Restricted.

The agreement also locks Dhaka into purchasing $15 billion of American Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) over 15 years, plus commitments to buy 14 Boeing aircraft — a $3-4 billion decision made without consulting Biman's technical committee, which was still evaluating competing proposals from Airbus.

This is not economic policy. It is surrendering fiscal sovereignty.

Bangladesh needs a seventh signal: a dual-filter framework embedded into governance. Every decision on export diversification, energy security and digital infrastructure must pass two tests: first, does it advance domestic economic goals, and second, does it increase or decrease our strategic vulnerability in a fracturing world?

Export diversification beyond the cotton trap

Bangladesh's export basket remains heavily concentrated in a few sectors. Ready-made garments account for over 80% of earnings. Four markets — the European Union, the United States, Canada, and Japan — absorb 68% of exports. This is a single point of failure wrapped in cotton.

The Global South offers alternatives without strategic shackles. In January 2026, Bangladesh Bank announced cash incentives for 43 export categories, including light engineering, halal meat, leather goods, pharmaceuticals, and software-enabled services. The halal economy alone is projected to reach $10 trillion by 2030.

Local currency settlement mechanisms are reducing exposure to dollar volatility across Asia. About 90% of commerce among Brics nations is now settled in local currencies, up from roughly 65% two years ago.

The Brics Pay platform, presented at the October 2024 Kazan Summit, connects national payment systems — China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), India's Unified Payments Interface (UPI), Russia's System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS), and Brazil's instant payment network PIX — enabling local-currency transactions via QR codes without intermediaries.

These are operational frameworks Bangladesh can study and adapt.

Energy security as geopolitical choice

Every power plant tells a story about whose technology a nation trusts. The Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, built with Russian technology, is expected to begin operations this year.

The Matarbari coal plant, developed with Japanese assistance, represents another model. The LNG terminals supplied by US and Qatari partners represent a third. Each carries different strategic implications and different exposure to sanctions.

Bangladesh must prioritise its energy security. The 9 February deal bars Bangladesh from purchasing nuclear reactors, fuel rods or enriched uranium from any country that 'jeopardises essential US interests', offering exceptions only for existing contracts. This is a pre-emptive strike against future energy choices.

In January 2026, the Ministry of Power submitted a 25-year master plan to Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus, focusing on offshore gas exploration, LNG supply security, and hydrogen infrastructure. The plan projects electricity demand rising from 17 to 59 gigawatts by 2050, requiring investments exceeding $177 billion. Bangladesh must ensure its energy future remains its own to decide.

Digital infrastructure and data sovereignty

The twenty-first century's most valuable resource is data. The infrastructure that carries it — undersea cables, data centres and cloud platforms — is increasingly contested terrain.

The draft National AI Policy 2026-2030 explicitly emphasises "digital sovereignty", aiming to safeguard critical data and citizens' rights. A cornerstone is the development of a Bangla-based large language model to preserve cultural heritage and protect intellectual property from foreign exploitation.

The policy warns that automation may threaten up to 60.8% of garment sector jobs, affecting around 2.7 million workers.

Yet the 9 February deal commits Bangladesh to "permit the free transfer of data across trusted borders" and support a permanent moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions at the World Trade Organisation (WTO). These provisions constrain Dhaka's ability to negotiate different data governance frameworks with other partners.

The emerging cooperation among Asean, China, and Gulf states on digital trade platforms offers an alternative model — built on connectivity rather than control. These frameworks do not require choosing against the West. They require building enough relationships that no single partner can dictate terms.

The seventh signal

Zillur Rahman's six signals provide a strong domestic foundation. But they assume a world that no longer exists. The seventh signal is this: Bangladesh's economic and foreign policy can no longer be separated. Every decision on export markets, energy partners, and digital infrastructure is simultaneously an economic calculation and a geopolitical commitment.

The new government must institutionalise this understanding. Create a National Economic Security Council bringing together trade, finance, energy, and foreign policy officials. Require strategic vulnerability assessments for every major international agreement. Task the central bank with a formal assessment of platforms like Brics Pay — not as alternatives to Western systems, but as complements that ensure the dollar is not the only option.

The choice before the BNP government is not between East and West. The choice is between accepting a straitjacket designed elsewhere and building enough relationships and enough strategic literacy that Bangladesh's future remains Bangladesh's to write.

Hossain Zillur Rahman is right: the start is grounded in optimism. But optimism without strategic clarity is just wishful thinking dressed in the national flag. The seventh signal must come now — before the next agreement is signed in secret, before the next straitjacket is tailored, before the next crossroads becomes a dead end.

Zakir Kibria is a Bangladeshi writer, policy analyst and entrepreneur based in Kathmandu, Nepal.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.

The US dollar rose across the board on Friday, set ​for a second straight weekly gain, as the war in the Middle East drove investors toward safe-haven assets and weighed on ‌energy-sensitive currencies such as the euro.

President Donald Trump said the US was going to be hitting Iran “very hard over the next week”, shortly after issuing a partial 30-day waiver for purchases of sanctioned Russian oil, hoping to ease prices fuelled by the US-Israeli war on Iran.

A sharp and prolonged rise in oil prices would severely hurt the economies of Japan and ​the euro zone, which are heavily reliant on crude imports, while the United States would be relatively insulated, having been a net crude ​exporter for almost a decade.

“Global investors are unwinding cross-border exposures, pushing money into safe havens, and punishing currencies issued by net energy importers,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto.

The euro was 0.6 percent lower against the dollar at $1.14395. The dollar index , ​which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of currencies, was up 0.7 percent at 100.35. The index is up 1.5 percent for the week.

Schamotta, however, warned that ​FX markets face two-way risks.

“As the war drags on, both Tehran and Washington have strong motivations for returning to the negotiating table and there are good reasons to suspect they could strike a face-saving bargain as soon as this weekend,” said Schamotta.

Top US and Chinese economic officials are set to launch a new round of talks in Paris on Sunday to iron out kinks in their trade truce and clear a smooth path for US President Donald Trump's trip to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of March.

The discussions, led by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, are expected to focus on shifting US tariffs, the flow of Chinese-produced rare earth minerals and magnets to US buyers, American high-tech export controls and Chinese purchases of US agricultural products.

The two sides will meet at the Paris headquarters of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, a source familiar with their planning said.

China is not a member of the club of 38 mostly wealthy democracies and considers itself a developing country.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will also join the talks, which continue a string of meetings in European cities last year aimed at easing tensions that threatened a near collapse of trade between the world's two largest economies.

US-China trade analysts said that with little time to prepare and Washington's attention focused on the US-Israeli war with Iran, prospects for a major trade breakthrough are limited, in Paris or at the Beijing summit.

"Both sides, I think, have a minimum goal of having a meeting, which sort of keeps things together and avoids a rupture and re-escalation of tensions," said Scott Kennedy, a China economics expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Trump may want to come away from Beijing with major Chinese commitments to order new Boeing aircraft and buy more US liquefied natural gas and soybeans, but to get that he may need to offer some concession on US export controls, Kennedy added.

Instead, Kennedy said chances were high for a summit that "superficially suggests progress but that really just leaves things about where they've been for the last four months."

Trump and Xi could potentially meet three other times this year, including at a China-hosted APEC summit in November and a US-hosted G20 summit in December that could yield more tangible progress.

Iran war oil concerns

The US-Israeli war on Iran will likely come up at the Paris talks, especially in reference to the spike in oil prices and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which China gets 45% of its oil.

Bessent on Thursday night announced a 30-day waiver of sanctions to allow the sale of Russian oil stranded at sea in tankers, a move to raise supplies.

On Saturday, Trump urged other nations to help protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz after Washington bombed military targets on Iran's Kharg Island oil loading hub and Iran threatened to retaliate.

China's state-run China Daily newspaper in an editorial called for continuity in the US-China dialogue as a "stabilizing anchor" amid the uncertainty of the "ongoing crisis in the Middle East" and the best way to address specific differences on issues including strategic materials, technology, market access and agriculture.

Crisis-hit People's Leasing and Financial Services Ltd (PLFS), a non-bank financial institution (NBFI), has formally sought a financial stimulus of Tk 7.50 billion from the government to complete its restructuring process and resume full-scale operations.

In a letter sent to the Ministry of Finance, the company outlined a comprehensive 'revival plan' aimed at safeguarding depositors' interests and restoring confidence in the troubled NBFI sector, according to sources.

The company said the proposed financial support would help bridge the gap between its recoverable assets and outstanding liabilities, enabling it to complete the court-supervised reconstruction process.

People's Leasing has been embroiled in a severe liquidity crisis and financial irregularities during the 2003-2014 period, which eventually prompted the High Court to order its liquidation.

However, in July 2021, the apex court stayed the liquidation order, and constituted a new board of directors to facilitate the company's restructuring under judicial supervision.

Since then, the new management claims to have made notable progress in stabilising the troubled lender.

According to the company, approximately Tk 2.0 billion has been recovered from defaulting borrowers since July 2021, and around Tk 840 million has already been repaid to nearly 1,900 depositors.

As part of cost-cutting measures, the company shifted its head office to a self-owned floor in Purana Paltan, saving nearly Tk 1.0 million per month in rent

It has also cleared a backlog by holding seven pending annual general meetings covering the years 2019 through 2025 to ensure regulatory compliance.

To complete the turnaround process, People's Leasing has proposed several restructuring measures alongside the government support. The measures include converting existing liabilities into interest-free principal payments over a specified period, exploring the conversion of depositor claims into company equity, and restarting SME and collateral-based lending to generate fresh revenue.

The company has also proposed confiscating shares held by former directors allegedly involved in past financial irregularities, and reissuing them to new investors.

In the letter, PLFS Managing Director Md Sagir Hossain Khan said the primary objective of the revival efforts is to ensure protection of public deposits under the supervision of the High Court and the Bangladesh Bank.Bangladesh market research

"To transform the institution into a profitable and functional entity in the public interest, a financial assistance of approximately Tk 7.50 billion is essential," the letter reads.

If the proposed stimulus is provided, the company plans to normalise its operations by 2026, including maintaining the mandatory cash reserve ratio (CRR) and statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) with the central bank, signalling a return to regular financial activities.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East and resulting airspace closures have disrupted flights across the region, affecting airlines operating routes between Bangladesh and Gulf countries.

As cancellations continue, carriers say they are losing a large number of passengers each day, leading to mounting revenue losses.

Airlines operating Middle Eastern routes say the cancellations have already translated into steep revenue losses.

Kamrul Islam, general manager (public relations) at US-Bangla Airlines, said the carrier is losing hundreds of return passengers each day due to reduced operations.

"We are losing about 600-700 passengers daily who would normally return from the Middle East," Kamrul told The Business Standard.

With the average one-way airfare at roughly Tk50,000, the airline is losing a substantial amount of revenue each day.

Since the crisis began, about 30 of the airline's Middle East-bound flights have been cancelled. The total financial loss is yet to be calculated as refunds and rescheduling continue.

Before the disruptions, US-Bangla operated multiple flights to Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Sharjah. Flights to Sharjah and Abu Dhabi remain suspended, while services to Qatar have also been halted.

The airline has announced plans to resume Sharjah flights on 13 April and Abu Dhabi flights on 14 April.

Before the crisis, airports in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha served as major global crossroads.

Nearly 300,000 passengers pass through one of these hubs daily, about two-thirds of whom are transit travellers, according to a report published by The Guardian on 7 March.

When airspace closures disrupted flights through these hubs, the effects spread across the global aviation network, stranding travellers and forcing many to cancel trips.

The impact is particularly pronounced for Bangladesh, where a large share of international travellers rely on Gulf carriers such as Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad Airways and Saudia for onward connections.

Bangladesh's fruit imports more than doubled this fiscal year, yet prices have remained stubbornly high this Ramadan, keeping many popular items out of reach for low- and middle-income consumers.

At Chattogram's fruit markets, wholesale prices of fruits are Tk10-Tk30 per kilogram higher than before Ramadan, while retail prices have risen by Tk50-Tk150, limiting the benefits of higher imports.

Traders blame strong demand during Ramadan and excessive duty-tax burdens for soaring fruit prices, while consumers point to market manipulation and weak oversight.

Data from the Plant Quarantine Station at Chattogram Port shows that in the first seven months of FY25, fruit imports stood at 221,327 tonnes. During the same period in FY26, imports rose to 558,020 tonnes. Imported varieties included apples, oranges, grapes, pears, malta, pineapples, pomelo, guava, and dates.

However, enquiries at Chattogram's major wholesale fruit market, Folmondi, reveal that although prices of different imported fruits fluctuate, overall rates remain higher than before Ramadan.

Abdul Hamid, a buyer from Hamzar Bagh, said his children want fruits during Ramadan.

However, buying just one kilogram of good-quality grapes now costs Tk400 to Tk500. Unable to afford all types of fruits together, he buys smaller quantities than before.

Rakib Uddin, a retailer at Riazuddin Bazaar, justified the price difference, saying wholesale prices are already high. He added that transport costs, shop rents, and workers' wages further increase retail prices.

He also noted that fruits cannot be stored for long and carry the risk of spoilage, forcing traders to sell with limited profit margins.

More imports

Fruits are imported from various countries, with the majority entering through Chattogram Port, from where they are distributed across the country. Some imports also arrive via land ports.

Bangladesh imports fruits from India, China, Thailand, Bhutan, Egypt, Brazil, Tunisia, Portugal, New Zealand, Afghanistan, South Africa, and France. Different varieties of dates are imported from Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries.

According to the Plant Quarantine Station, imports of apples, oranges, and grapes through the port totalled 244,055 tonnes in the first seven months of FY26.

During the same period of the previous fiscal year, imports of these three fruits stood at 174,747 tonnes, an increase of nearly 70,000 tonnes within a year.

High fruit prices

A 15-kg carton of malta was selling for Tk3,400 to Tk3,600 at Folmondi. A 20-kg carton of Chinese apples was priced between Tk3,800 and Tk4,000, while local apples sold for Tk5,500 to Tk5,700 per 20-kg carton.

White grapes were being sold at Tk2,500 to Tk2,800 per 10-kg carton, and black grapes at Tk3,800 to Tk4,300 per 10-kg carton. An 8.5-kg carton of oranges fetched Tk1,700 to Tk1,900.

On-site visits show that retail fruit prices in the city have risen significantly compared with pre-Ramadan levels. Pomegranates, once sold at about Tk450 per kilogram, are now Tk550.

Chinese oranges, previously Tk250 to Tk300, now retail around Tk350 per kilogram. Malta, once Tk300, is now about Tk350. Apples, earlier around Tk300 per kilogram, are now Tk350 to Tk400.

Pears have increased from Tk400 to Tk450–Tk500 per kilogram. Black grapes, once Tk400, now cost Tk550 to Tk600 per kilogram.

'Prices rise with demand'

Muhammad Touhidul Alam, general secretary of the Chattogram Fruit Traders' Association, said many traders rush into imports after hearing about profits, but later incur losses and leave the business.

He added that syndicates cannot form in markets dealing with perishable goods. According to him, prices rise when demand exceeds imports and fall when demand is lower.

Other traders said international prices, dollar exchange rates, and the tariff-tax structure directly influence fruit prices. Besides, the exchange rate rose, increasing import costs and affecting market prices.

Duties on fruit import

Total duties on fruit imports were 89.32% in FY22. But, over the past three years, the total tax incidence on fruit imports rose to about 116%.

A report by the Bangladesh Tariff Commission states that under the Essential Commodities Act of 1956, fresh fruits are considered essential goods, not luxury items.

The commission recommended reducing the supplementary duty from 30% to 20%, cutting advance tax from 10% to 2%, and abolishing the 20% regulatory duty and 5% advance income tax. Later, the NBR reduced the supplementary duty from 30% to 25% and fully waived the 5% advance tax at the import stage.

Touhidul Alam said that even after some duty reductions, importers still pay Tk120-Tk136 in duties for fruits valued at Tk100, depending on the type.

Duties should be further reduced to Tk30-Tk40 to bring most fruit prices below Tk200, he said. "This would allow middle- and lower-middle-income people to afford fruits."

SM Nazer Hossain, vice president of the Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB), told TBS that chaos in the fruit market shows no sign of stopping.

"No matter how much fruit is imported or how much duties are reduced, the impact on prices is minimal because the market operates almost entirely without oversight," he said.

He added that Importers bring in goods under lower-duty categories but sell them as higher-duty products, misleading consumers, especially during Ramadan.

"The NBR must clarify which duties apply to which fruits and ensure regular monitoring. Otherwise, it will remain impossible for ordinary people to afford fruit," he said.

Gold prices slipped on Friday and were on track for a second ‌consecutive weekly decline, pressured by a stronger dollar and inflation worries driven by the Iran war, which weighed on rate‑cut expectations.

Spot gold fell 0.5 percent to $5,052.15 per ounce, by 1:44 p.m. ET (1744 GMT), ​and was down over 2 percent for the week so far.

US gold futures for ​April delivery settled 1.3 percent lower at $5,061.70.

The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) has opened investigations into the manufacturing sectors of 16 economies, including Bangladesh, over concerns of structural excess capacity and production under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974.

According to a Federal Register notice, Bangladesh faces scrutiny over government-provided cash incentives for export sectors, which the USTR says have contributed to a $6.15 billion bilateral goods trade surplus with the United States.

Bangladesh ships more than $8 billion worth of goods to the US each year, with ready-made garments making up the bulk of exports. The government offers cash incentives across 43 sectors, including textiles and leather products.

The notice also singled out Bangladesh's cement industry, claiming it is operating well below its production capacity. In 2024, national cement consumption fell to 38 million tonnes, less than 40% of production capacity, and is expected to decline further in 2025.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the investigation will examine whether the policies of these economies are "unreasonable or discriminatory" and whether they burden or restrict US commerce. "The United States will no longer sacrifice its industrial base to other countries exporting their problems with excess capacity," Greer added.

Other economies under review include China, the European Union, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia, South Korea, Japan, Mexico, Singapore, Switzerland, Norway, and Taiwan.

Cash incentive payments will no longer be kept pending, governor tells garment exporters

Mahmud Hasan Khan, president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), described Bangladesh's inclusion in the investigation as "uncomfortable" and "without logical basis".

"If such allegations are proven, they may impose additional tariffs," he said.

"Export incentives in Bangladesh are minimal," Mahmud said, adding that while questions might arise about agricultural subsidies, the US itself heavily subsidises its farmers, whereas Bangladesh primarily subsidises fertilisers.

Mostafa Abid Khan, former member of the Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission, told The Business Standard, "The incentives fall within the WTO policy. I do not think the level of support encourages overcapacity, though production levels may be questioned."

The USTR has requested consultations with Bangladesh and other countries under review. A public comment docket opens on 17 March, with a hearing scheduled for 5 May, allowing stakeholders to submit written comments and testify.

Goldman Sachs raised its Brent, WTI crude oil price forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026 to $71/67 per barrel from $66/62 as it sees longer ​disruption to oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz due to ‌the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Brent prices have gained more than 36 percent since the war began on February 28, while WTI has risen about 39 percent. Both benchmarks briefly topped $119 on ​Monday, their highest levels since mid‑2022.

The fighting has effectively shut the ​Strait of Hormuz, leaving tankers stranded for more than a week and forcing producers to suspend output as storage nears capacity.

Goldman analysts in ​a note on Thursday said they now assume 21 days of low Strait ​of Hormuz (SoH) oil flows at 10 percent of normal levels followed by a 30-day gradual recovery, compared with their earlier expectation of a 10-day disruption.

The bank also said that daily ​oil prices are likely to exceed their 2008 peak if SoH flows ​remain depressed through March.

Goldman incorporated a larger policy response in its models, wherein 254 million barrels ‌of ⁠actual global special petroleum reserve (SPR) releases and 31mb of draws in Russian crude would reduce the hit to global commercial oil inventories by nearly 50 percent.

The International Energy Agency on Wednesday agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from ​strategic stockpiles to combat ​a spike in ⁠global crude prices since the start of the war, with the US contributing the bulk of the supply.

In Goldman’s base case ​where Strait of Hormuz flows start recovering March 21 onwards, ​it assumes ⁠IEA member states won’t fully release the 400 million barrels available.

This is because the bank assumes a logistical limit of 3 million barrels per day on draws from ⁠the ​Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) SPR and ​a four-week phase-out of releases through early June when WTI prices are expected to moderate to ​the low $70s.

Bangladesh’s trade deficit, the gap between what it buys and sells abroad, widened by 17.44 percent in the July-January period of fiscal year 2025-26, due mainly to higher imports and weaker export earnings.

The deficit reached $13.79 billion during the seven months, up from $11.74 billion in the same period a year earlier.

According to Bangladesh Bank (BB) data, import bills rose 4.6 percent year-on-year to $39.88 billion. Export earnings, meanwhile, slipped 1.1 percent to $26.09 billion.

The widening gap has raised concerns at a time when the US-Israel war on Iran has rattled global oil markets and disrupted shipping routes. Since tensions escalated in the Middle East, the Bangladeshi currency, the taka, has begun to weaken. A softer currency could raise import costs and place further strain on the trade balance.

At the same time, exports have not shown clear growth, while war-driven inflation may reduce demand in Bangladesh’s major export markets.

Despite the wider trade gap, the country’s current account deficit narrowed.

This measure, which tracks the net flow of money in and out of the country through trade in goods and services as well as income flows, stood at $381 million in July-January of FY26. A year earlier, it was $1.31 billion.

The financial account also strengthened during the period.

Supported by higher net foreign direct investment, the surplus in the account, which records cross-border flows from investment, loans, aid and other financial transactions, climbed to $2 billion from $331 million a year earlier.

Taken together, the changes pushed Bangladesh’s overall balance of payments (BoP) into a surplus of $2.28 billion. In the same period last year, the country posted a deficit of $1.22 billion.

In an article, Sadiq Ahmed, vice chairman of the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh (PRI), said the fall in exports has raised concerns about the country’s BoP outlook.

He added that strong remittance inflows have provided a key support. Remittance earnings rose sharply, bringing in $9 billion more in FY2025 than in FY2022.

However, Ahmed warned that foreign exchange reserves may fall in the second half of FY26 because of weaker exports and rising imports. Still, unless there is a major policy setback or a prolonged Iran war, reserves are expected to stabilise at around $30 billion.

He added that declining exports, rising external debt and debt servicing, and the Iran war raise questions about the sustainability of the current BoP position.

To address these risks, Ahmed recommended diversifying exports, saying double-digit export growth will not be possible without it.

“One key requirement is flexible exchange rate management that avoids appreciation of the real effective exchange rate,” he added.

His second priority was removing anti-export biases in trade policy and improving the country’s investment climate.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) has granted FIX certification to 11 more brokerage houses, allowing them to launch their own Order Management Systems (OMS) through API connectivity.

The firms receiving certification are NF Management Company, Akij Capital Management, Amar Securities, Commerce Bank Securities and Investment, Mona Financial Consultancy and Securities, Premier Bank Securities, Prilink Securities, Pubali Bank Securities, Remons Investment and Securities, Skyline Securities and United Securities.

Certificates were handed over at a ceremony at the DSE Tower on 11 March, where DSE Managing Director Nuzhat Anwar presented the FIX certifications to representatives of the brokerage houses.

Speaking at the event, Nuzhat said the DSE began efforts in 2020 to introduce an API (Application Programming Interface)-based Brokerage House Order Management System (BHOMS).

The system enables brokerage firms to connect directly to the exchange's Nasdaq-powered matching engine through APIs and operate their own order management platforms.

Under the initiative, 76 brokerage houses applied to the DSE seeking API connectivity to conduct trading through proprietary OMS platforms integrated with the Nasdaq matching engine.

With the addition of the latest 11 firms, the DSE has now granted FIX certification to 58 brokerage houses in total. Of them, 44 have already launched their own OMS using API connectivity, allowing client orders to be routed directly to the exchange's trading engine.

Market officials say the adoption of API-based trading infrastructure is expected to improve efficiency, transparency and technological capacity in the country's capital market. By allowing brokerage firms to use their own OMS platforms, the system facilitates faster order execution, improved risk management and smoother integration with trading systems.

The move is also part of broader efforts by the DSE to modernise market infrastructure following the introduction of the Nasdaq trading platform.

SM Fakhar-Uz-Zaman, one of the sponsors and former chairman of Rangpur Dairy and Food Products Ltd, widely known as RD Food, has announced plans to sell his entire shareholding in the company through the stock market.

He disclosed his intention to sell 1.05 lakh shares of RD Food at the prevailing market price through the public market on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) within the next 30 working days, according to a disclosure filed with the bourse.

Fakhar-Uz-Zaman, the founder of the company, served as chairman from 2004 to 2017.

Over the past few years, however, he has gradually reduced his ownership in the company. Market sources said Fakhar-Uz-Zaman began offloading shares in 2019 when he held nearly 10% of the company's shares.

Once the announced sale is completed, the former chairman will fully exit the company's shareholding.

Apart from his business involvement, Fakhar-Uz-Zaman is also active in politics. He is a presidium member of the Jatiya Party and contested the 13th national parliamentary election from the Rangpur-5 constituency, although he was unsuccessful in securing the seat.

Shares of RD Food closed 1.54% higher at Tk19.80 on Thursday on the Dhaka bourse.

The company's recent financial performance, however, reflects a decline in profitability compared to the previous year. Its earnings per share (EPS) stood at Tk0.16 for the October-December quarter of FY2025, down from Tk0.31 in the same quarter a year earlier.

For the July-December period of the 2025-26 fiscal year, the company reported EPS of Tk0.38, compared with Tk0.66 in the corresponding period of the previous year.

Meanwhile, the company's latest audit report has raised concerns over certain financial practices. Faruk Ahmed, partner at Khan Wahab Shafique Rayhman & Co Chartered Accountants, issued an opinion in the audit report for the fiscal year 2024-25.

According to the auditor, the company calculated its deferred tax liability using a previous statutory regulatory order (SRO) rate of 15% instead of applying the currently applicable rate of 22.5%, which could affect the accuracy of its reported tax obligations.

The auditor also flagged inconsistencies related to unclaimed dividends and IPO funds, noting that Tk57.37 lakh from the IPO subscription remained unadjusted under non-claimed general share applications, which overstated the company's capital position.

The auditor also raised concerns about the company's ability to repay bank loans and other liabilities, citing lower cash inflows.

The report stated that the net operating cash flow of the company decreased to Tk0.16 crore in FY25 from Tk1.47 crore in the previous fiscal year, primarily due to changes in the timing of collections and payments.

As a result, the report noted, the company is facing liquidity constraints, as reflected by delayed payments of bank loans and other liabilities.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has formed an investigation committee to examine allegations of irregularities surrounding board meetings and a leadership dispute at Navana Pharmaceuticals.

The securities regulator took the decision on 8 March and issued an official notification on 10 March, directing a four-member committee to conduct a detailed probe into the matter.

The committee consists of Lutful Kabir, additional director of the commission, Delowar Hossain, additional director, Motiur Rahman, assistant director, and Nizam Uddin, assistant director. The committee has been instructed to submit its report to the commission within seven working days, considering the urgency and importance of the issue.

The dispute stems from developments during the company's 65th board meeting held on 28 January. After approving the official agenda items, the meeting was formally closed by chairman and independent director Saiqa Mazed.

However, after the meeting was adjourned, another faction of the board reportedly convened and elected Javed Kaiser Ally as the new chairman and Sayeed Ahmed as the managing director, while also replacing the company secretary.

Saiqa Mazed later declared those decisions illegal, arguing that the appointments were made after the meeting had officially ended. She subsequently filed a petition with the BSEC seeking to annul the decisions and also lodged a case at Gulshan police station, citing threats from the rival group.

Following the allegations, the BSEC held a meeting with the board members and the company secretary of Navana Pharmaceuticals to review the situation before forming the inquiry committee.

According to the notification, the commission believes that the issue requires a comprehensive investigation as the composition of the company's board, the conduct of board meetings and corporate governance practices are closely linked with protecting the interests of general investors.

As part of the inquiry, the committee will examine several issues, including whether the company's 64th board meeting was actually held and if so, whether it was conducted in accordance with applicable laws and regulations. The probe will also review whether notices for the board meetings were properly issued as required by law and whether all eligible directors received those notices.

Investigators will also determine whether any external individuals received meeting notices or participated in the meetings and whether there were irregularities in setting the agenda, approving resolutions or preparing the minutes of the 65th board meeting.

The committee will further assess whether the processes related to appointing directors, removing the chairman and appointing or replacing the company secretary were carried out in accordance with legal requirements.

The regulator also directed that the board structure that remained in effect until the company's 63rd board meeting will continue unchanged until the disputed matters relating to the 64th and 65th meetings are resolved.