The Dhaka Stock Exchange extended its bullish momentum for a second consecutive session yesterday (19 January) as renewed buying interest across sectors lifted the benchmark index sharply, reflecting a significant recovery in investor sentiment after a prolonged period of market sluggishness.

The benchmark DSEX index jumped 56 points, or 1.12%, to close at 5,091, bringing the cumulative gain over the last two trading days to 133 points. This rally bolstered the market capitalisation by approximately Tk9,000 crore, highlighting the broad-based nature of the day's gains.

The blue-chip index, DS30, also posted a strong performance, rising by 25 points, or 1.33%, to settle at 1,964. Market breadth remained decisively positive, with 268 issues advancing against 72 decliners, while 54 stocks closed unchanged, indicating widespread participation in the rally.

Turnover, a key indicator of market activity, surged by 25% to Tk593 crore, marking a two-month high. The volume was close to the recent peak of Tk636 crore recorded on 25 November 2025, suggesting that both institutional and retail investors are returning to the market with increased confidence.

A managing director of a brokerage firm said the market often witnesses a rally from mid-January each year, largely driven by institutional investors stepping up their participation after year-end adjustments.

He noted that the current market levels remain attractive following a prolonged subdued phase, during which many fundamentally strong stocks traded at discounted prices. As a result, both institutional and retail investors are actively positioning themselves on the buy side.

He further added that the upcoming national election has also sent a positive signal to the market, helping to reduce uncertainty and improve overall investor confidence.

Trading activity was concentrated in several heavyweight and actively traded stocks, with Square Pharmaceuticals, Prime Bank, City Bank, BRAC Bank, and Orion Infusion featuring among the top turnover contributors for the day. These stocks played a key role in pulling the indices higher.

All major large-cap sectors closed in positive territory, reinforcing the strength of the rally. The non-bank financial institution sector led the gains with a jump of over 2%, followed by strong performances from the food and allied, pharmaceutical, and engineering sectors. Fuel and power, telecommunication, and banking stocks also posted modest but positive returns, indicating a balanced sectoral recovery rather than a narrow rally.

The upbeat trend was mirrored at the Chittagong Stock Exchange as well. The CSCX index rose by 65 points to close at 8,791, while the broader CASPI advanced 111 points to settle at 14,198. Turnover at the port city bourse stood at Tk12.33 crore, reflecting improved trading activity there too.

Bangladesh Lamps Limited (BD Lamps), a listed electric bulb manufacturer, returned to profit in the second quarter of the current financial year, although it still ended the first half in the red after a loss in the July-September period.

According to its quarterly financial statements, the electric bulb maker posted a profit of Tk10 lakh in the October-December quarter of FY26, with earnings per share (EPS) of Tk0.10.

However, because of a loss of Tk1.24 crore in the first quarter, the company reported a net loss of Tk1.14 crore for the July-December period. Even so, the half-year loss narrowed sharply compared with the same period of the previous financial year.

In the first half of FY25, BD Lamps had posted a net loss of Tk5.85 crore, with a loss per share of Tk5.56, the company's filings showed.

Explaining the change in EPS, the company said performance improved compared with the corresponding period a year earlier, supported by revenue growth of 14.1% and a 1.97% rise in gross profit.

In the July-December period of FY26, revenue rose to Tk102.63 crore, from Tk89.91 crore in the same period of the previous year. In the second quarter alone, revenue increased to Tk53.84 crore, up from Tk47.74 crore in the same quarter of FY25.

The company reported net operating cash flow per share of Tk16.30, compared with negative Tk19.41 in the same period a year earlier.

It said operating cash flow improved mainly because of higher customer collections of Tk18.86 crore and lower payments to suppliers amounting to Tk19.96 crore.

Net asset value per share declined to Tk43.39 as of December, from Tk44.99 in December 2024.

In the last financial year, BD Lamps posted a loss of Tk6.55 crore, with a loss per share of Tk6.22. Despite the losses, the company paid a 10% cash dividend to its shareholders.

Yesterday, BD Lamps shares closed at Tk141.30 each on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), down 2.89% from the previous trading session.

Everyone must perform their duties responsibly from their respective positions in the interest of the country, the national economy and the capital market, Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Khondker Rashed Maqsood said today (19 January).

He said the BSEC remains proactive in ensuring the welfare and development of the capital market and will provide all necessary support to stakeholders in this regard, reads a press release.

The BSEC chairman made the remarks during a courtesy meeting and exchange of views with the newly elected executive committee of the Bangladesh Association of Publicly Listed Companies at the BSEC building in Agargaon, Dhaka.

During the meeting, he said BAPLC is one of the key stakeholders of the capital market and plays a particularly important role in its development and reform. He emphasised the need to ensure institutional good governance, transparency and accountability in listed companies, as well as protecting the interests of shareholders and investors.

In the press release, the BSEC said the commission congratulated the newly elected executive committee of BAPLC and called for joint efforts to work together in the interest of the country's capital market and investors.

The meeting, which began at 10am in the commission meeting room, was also attended by BSEC commissioners Md Mohsin Chowdhury, Md Ali Akbar, Farzana Lalarukh and Md Saifuddin, as well as BSEC executive directors, directors and other concerned officials.

Representing BAPLC at the meeting were its president and Managing Director of National Polymer Industries PLC Riyad Mahmud; Managing Director and CEO of Energypac Power Humayun Rashid; Managing Director and CEO of Asia Insurance Md Imam Shaheen; Managing Director of Provati Insurance Md Zahidul Islam; Chief Executive Officer of Eastern Insurance Hasan Tarek; Managing Director of GQ Ball Pen Industries Ujjal Kumar Saha; Director of Robi Axiata Sharif Shah Jamal Raj; Managing Director and CEO of National Housing Finance Mohammad Shamsul Islam; Managing Director of Summit Power Major General (retd) Dr Monirul Islam Akhond; Director of Chartered Life Insurance Md Sharif Hasan; Director of Delta Life Insurance Ziad Rahman; and BAPLC Secretary General Md Amjad Hossain.

Commercial banks will have no alternative but to increase loan disbursement to the private sector as excess liquidity continues to build up in the banking system, Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur said today (19 January).

He made the remarks while speaking at a seminar titled "Systematic Efforts to Understand Economic Pulse: Importance of Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)" as the chief guest.

Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Dhaka (MCCI) and Policy Exchange Bangladesh (PEB) jointly organised the discussion at MCCI's Gulshan office.

James Goldman, deputy high commissioner and development director, British High Commission to Bangladesh, was the special guest at the seminar.

The governor said the deposit growth was 6.40% in December 2024 when the total deposit portfolio was Tk18 trillion.

He said that it means an additional liquidity amounting to Tk1.20 trillion was injected into the money market in 2024 but the government borrowed more than Tk1.20 trillion in that year.

The deposit growth is probably 11% by the end of December last, which means an additional Tk2.20 trillion is projected to be injected into the market. But the government is set to borrow over Tk1 trillion this year, according to the governor.

"So, the banks will have enough liquidity to be invested in the private sector. I think banks would start finding borrowers now," he said.

Mansur said they have given policy support to everyone who seeks such regulatory intervention to get rid of various anti-business hurdles.

He also informed that the central bank is eyeing the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market. "We want to see our corporate flags all over the world. That's why we keep building our forex reserve," he added.

Mansur said the country's balance of payments has strengthened following a rise in foreign exchange inflows, while the financial account has already shown significant improvement.

He noted that deposit growth reached around 11% in November, driven by the overall surplus in the balance of payments.

According to him, higher foreign exchange inflows into the economy have directly contributed to the increase in bank deposits.

Mansur noted that the country built its foreign exchange reserves without IMF dollar support and that its external position is currently in surplus.

Bangladesh's economy picked up pace in Q1 (Jul–Sep) of the current fiscal year FY26, with GDP growth at constant prices rising to 4.50%, up from 2.58% in the same period of the previous fiscal year. Agriculture sector also recovered, expanding 2.30% after a 0.60% contraction a year ago.

Gold prices in Bangladesh have soared to a new all-time high, with the price of 22-carat gold set at Tk238,879 per bhori (11.664 grams), following the latest adjustment by the Bangladesh Jewellers Association (Bajus).

In a notification issued late Monday night (19 January), Bajus announced a price hike of Tk4,199 per bhori, pushing gold prices to a record level.

The new rates will come into effect from Tuesday morning.

Under the revised prices, 21-carat gold will cost Tk228,031 per bhori, 18-carat gold Tk195,430 per bhori, while gold under the traditional method has been fixed at Tk160,147 per bhori.

Bajus said the price adjustment was made in view of an increase in the local market price of tejabi gold (pure gold), considering the overall market situation.

The association also noted that a mandatory 5% value-added tax (VAT) imposed by the government and a minimum 6% making charge set by Bajus must be added to the selling price of gold jewellery. However, making charges may vary depending on design and quality.

The last price revision took place on 14 January, when Bajus raised the price of 22-carat gold by Tk2,625 per bhori to Tk234,680, which had been the highest price in the country's history until now.

With the latest adjustment, gold prices have been revised eight times so far in 2026, with six increases and two reductions. In 2025, gold prices were adjusted a total of 93 times, raised on 64 occasions and reduced 29 times.

Alongside gold, silver prices have also been increased.

The price of 22-carat silver has been raised by Tk291 per bhori to Tk 6,240, the highest level ever recorded in the country.

Under the new rates, 21-carat silver will cost Tk5,949 per bhori, 18-carat silver Tk5,132 per bhori, and silver under the traditional method Tk3,849 per bhori.

So far this year, silver prices have been adjusted five times, with three increases and two reductions.

The International Monetary Fund again edged its 2026 global growth forecast higher on Monday (19 January) as businesses and economies adapt to US tariffs that have eased in recent months and a continued AI investment boom that has fueled asset wealth and expectations of productivity gains.

The IMF in its World Economic Outlook update forecast global GDP growth at 3.3% in 2026, up 0.2 percentage point from its last estimate in October. That's even with 3.3% growth in 2025, which will also beat the October estimate by 0.1 percentage point, the IMF said.

The global crisis lender forecast 2027 growth at 3.2%, unchanged from the previous forecast. It has revised global growth rates higher since last July in response to trade deals that have reduced President Donald Trump's tariff rates that peaked in April 2025.

"We find that global growth remains quite resilient," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters, adding that the Fund's 2025 and 2026 growth forecasts now exceed predictions made in October 2024, before Trump was elected to a second term.

"So, in a sense, the global economy is shaking off the trade and tariff disruptions of 2025 and is coming out ahead of what we were expecting before it all started," Gourinchas said.
A digital illustration of the map of Bangladesh with a green upward-trending arrow and bar chart, alongside stacks of Bangladeshi Taka currency, symbolizing economic growth.

He said businesses have been able to adapt to higher US tariff rates by rerouting supply chains, while trade agreements have lowered some duties and China has shifted exports to non-US markets. The latest IMF forecasts assume an effective US tariff rate of 18.5% down from about 25% in the Fund's April 2025 forecast.

The IMF estimated US growth for 2026 at 2.4%, up 0.3 percentage point from October, due in part to a big push from massive investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure including data centers, powerful AI chips and power. The IMF edged its 2027 growth forecast a tenth of a point lower to 2.0%.

The IMF also said technology investment was boosting activity in Spain, which saw 0.3 percentage point upgrade to its 2026 GDP forecast to 2.3%, and in Britain, where the IMF kept its forecast unchanged at 1.3% for 2026.

Gourinchas said the AI boom poses risks for heightened inflation if it continues at its breakneck pace. But he added that if expectations that AI-driven productivity gains and profits are not realised, this could spark a correction in high market valuations that could crimp demand.

The IMF report lists AI as among risks that are tilted to the downside, along with disruptions to supply chains and markets from geopolitical tensions as well as new flare-ups in trade tensions.

A Supreme Court decision against Trump's broad tariffs under an emergency sanctions law, expected in coming days or weeks, "would inject another dose of trade policy uncertainty into the global economy" if Trump resurrects new tariffs under other trade laws, Gourinchas said.

But the IMF said that AI represents significant upside for the global economy if the investment surge leads to rapid adoption and productivity gains are realized and boost business dynamism and innovation.

"As a result, global growth may be lifted by as much as 0.3 percentage points in 2026 and between 0.1 and 0.8 percentage points per year in the medium-term, depending on the speed of adoption and improvements in AI readiness globally.

Among forecasts for other major economies, the IMF said China's 2026 growth would reach 4.5%, down from a stronger-than-expected 5.0% performance in 2025, but 0.3 percentage point higher than October estimates. The upgrade reflects a 10 percentage-point reduction in US tariff rates on Chinese goods for a year as well as continued diversion of exports to other markets such as Southeast Asia and Europe.

Gourinchas said that China risks running into more protectionist trade policies unless it develops a more balanced growth model that relies less on exports and more on internal demand.

Bangladesh economy to grow 4.6%, inflation to ease to 7.1% in FY26: UN report

The IMF forecast euro zone growth at 1.3% for 2026, up 0.1 percentage point from the October estimate, driven by increased public spending in Germany and stronger performances in Spain and Ireland. The Fund kept its 2027 euro zone growth forecast unchanged at 1.4%, noting that planned European increases in defence spending would materialise only in later years.

Japan also saw a slight upgrade to 2026 growth due to its new government's fiscal stimulus package, but Brazil was a notable outlier to the improvement trend, with a 0.3 percentage point reduction in its 2026 growth rate to 1.6% since October. IMF officials attributed the downgrade largely to tighter monetary policy needed to fight a flare-up in inflation last year.

The IMF said that globally, inflation was forecast to continue to decline, from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. Gourinchas said this leaves room for more accommodative monetary policy that will help underpin growth.

Portfolio outflows are likely to pressure the Indian rupee and government bonds this week, leaving the currency vulnerable to fresh lows and debt markets under strain, with the focus on debt supply.

The rupee closed at 90.8650 per dollar on Friday (16 January), down 0.7% week-on-week and inching closer to its all-time low of 91.0750 hit in December.

The currency has remained under pressure since steep US tariffs on Indian goods went into effect last year and investors reckon a turnaround in fortunes is unlikely in the absence of a breakthrough in negotiations between New Delhi and Washington.

"The single most important issue remains a comprehensive and balanced trade deal with the United States, probably at least partly dependent on an easing of the personal tensions between Indian PM Modi and US President Donald Trump," said Carl Vermassen, a portfolio manager in the emerging markets debt team at Zurich-based Vontobel Asset Management.

The trade limbo has also dulled the sheen of local stocks for foreign investors who have pulled out about $2 billion from local stocks over January so far, contributing to pressure on the rupee.

The dollar index, meanwhile, logged its third consecutive weekly gain on Friday, bolstered by fading odds of imminent rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. While the data calendar is relatively light this week, the focus will be on US personal spending and GDP data.

Meanwhile, rupee traders will be assessing the fallout of the Greenland dispute on the dollar, US yields and risk appetitive. US President Donald Trump vowed to slap tariffs on eight European nations until the US is allowed to buy Greenland.

Bonds

The 10-year benchmark 6.48% 2035 yield settled at 6.6767% on Friday, up for a third consecutive week on supply worries and missing the bus for a global index inclusion.

Traders expect the yield to move in a 6.63%–6.72% range, with continued attention on the overall demand-supply scenario as well as the central bank's liquidity action.

Last Tuesday, Bloomberg Index Services deferred the inclusion of local bonds to its flagship Global Aggregate Index, which left market participants dejected as they were counting on foreign inflows amid worries over excess supply and elevated yields.

Vermassen, who expects inflows of $20 billion from the Bloomberg index inclusion, said it would not be a game-changer, with the impact being somewhat smaller, in relative terms, than the earlier inclusion in JPMorgan index.

Heavy weekly borrowing from the centre and states continues, with aggregate gross supply of 8 trillion rupees this quarter. This has pressured yields, leading to the spread widening between federal and state government debt.

"We expect spread to increase further given higher state debt supply and lower demand from market participants. We do not see any significant impact on central government bond yields," said Srinivas Rao Ravuri, chief investment officer at Bajaj Life Insurance.

An Afghan delegation headed by the country’s deputy commerce minister met Bangladesh’s commerce secretary today, expressing hope for duty-free bilateral trade.

Deputy Minister of Commerce and Industry of Afghanistan, Mawlawi Ahmadullah Zahid, made the proposal during a meeting with Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman at the latter’s office in Dhaka.

Zahid led the Afghan delegation of five to six members, said a senior commerce ministry official who asked not to be named.

It was not a formal bilateral meeting where documents or proposals were usually exchanged, the official added.

At the meeting, the Afghan deputy minister said his country seeks duty-free export of nearly 45 products to Bangladesh, including cotton, aiming to expand bilateral trade ties.

At the same time, he offered duty-free import of almost all major exportable commodities from Bangladesh.

Afghanistan considers Bangladesh a major source for RMG products, pharmaceuticals, beverages, confectionery, and packaged spices, Zahid added.

The commerce secretary could not be reached by phone for comments after the meeting.

A businessman involved in exports to Afghanistan said the two countries currently trade 98 products.

In terms of exporting dry food, fruits, stones, saffron, and almonds, Afghanistan may want to capture more of the market in Bangladesh, the businessman added.

Zahid arrived in Dhaka on Sunday as the head of the delegation, aiming to expand trade and economic ties.

A few months ago, another delegation from Afghanistan visited Bangladesh to discuss bilateral trade and investment with senior government officials.

The dollar fell on Monday as investors unnerved by US President Donald Trump's latest tariff threats against Europe over Greenland piled into the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc, in a broad risk-averse move across markets.

Trump said over the weekend he would impose an additional 10% import tariff from 1 February on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Britain, until the United States is allowed to buy Greenland.

Major European Union states decried the tariff threats over Greenland as blackmail on Sunday, with France proposing to respond with a range of previously untested economic countermeasures.

In the foreign exchange market, the initial knee-jerk reaction in early Asia trade was to sell the euro and sterling, in a move that pushed them to a seven-week low and one-month trough of $1.1572 and $1.3321, respectively.

However, the two currencies bounced from their lows and it was the dollar that came under pressure as the trading day got underway, as investors assessed the longer-term implications of Trump's latest move on the greenback's standing.

That helped the euro reverse its losses as it gained 0.21% to trade at $1.1623, while the British pound similarly recovered 0.11% to $1.3390.

"Typically you would think tariffs being threatened would lead to a weaker euro, but as we've seen last year as well, when the Liberation Day tariffs were getting put in place, the impact in FX markets actually has been more towards dollar weakness every time there is heightened policy uncertainty emanating from the US," said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ.

Investors had dumped the dollar in the wake of last April's "Liberation Day" announcement when Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs on the world, triggering a crisis of confidence in US assets.

A similar trend played out on Monday, as the greenback slid 0.36% against the safe-haven Swiss franc to 0.7993, and was down 0.24% to 157.74 yen.

The dollar index eased slightly to 99.18.

"While you would argue that the tariffs threaten Europe, in fact, it's actually the dollar that is bearing the brunt of it, because I think markets are pricing in increased political risk premia on the US dollar," said Goh.

Cryptocurrencies, which are often used as a gauge of risk sentiment, were also sold off heavily.

Bitcoin was down more than 3% to $92,477.54, while ether sank roughly 4% to $3,203.13.

In Asia, data on Monday showed China's economy grew 4.5% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, a touch above analysts' expectations and bang in line with the government's annual growth target.

The onshore yuan was little changed at 6.9647 per dollar following the release, while its offshore counterpart was a touch stronger at 6.9608 per dollar.

The Australian dollar, which is often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan, similarly did not budge on the data. It was last down 0.09% at $0.6685, as it remained under pressure from the broad risk-off move.

The New Zealand dollar was up 0.25% at $0.5766.

Local apparel exporters have opposed the commerce ministry’s recommendation to remove duty benefits on certain yarn imports under the bonded warehouse facility.

They argue that such restrictions would force them to spend more on locally produced yarn, which eventually will reduce the global competitiveness of the country’s ready-made garments at a time when export growth is slowing.

The commerce ministry recently recommended the National Board of Revenue (NBR) to scrap duty benefits on imported yarn of 10 to 30-count, a medium-to-coarse range widely used in knitwear production.

The move is meant for protecting local spinners, who claim they were sitting on Tk 12,000 crore of unsold stock as of December last year amid a surge of Indian yarn.

At a joint press conference at Pan Pacific Sonargaon Dhaka yesterday, leaders of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) and Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA) said local spinners should expand capacity and modernise production rather than depending on an “artificial duty shield”.

BGMEA Director Faisal Samad said they are relying more on Indian yarns because of their competitive prices. “In this case, shorter lead-time is not a major factor,” he said.

Leaders at the press conference criticised the commerce ministry for not consulting with them before making the decision. They said that officials of the Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission (BTTC), which operates under the commerce ministry, held meetings with them.

BKMEA President Mohammad Hatem said that no decision on duty withdrawal was made during discussions with BTTC officials.

The garment-makers said they would be willing to purchase local yarn even if it cost 20 cents more per kilogramme. Currently, the price differences range from 30 to 40 cents per kilogramme.

Acting BGMEA President Selim Rahman said the price of widely used 30 count yarn ranges from $2.50 to $2.60 per kilogram internationally, compared with $3 per kilogram for locally produced yarn.

In fiscal 2022-23, imported yarn from India cost Tk 428.37 per kilogram, yet the same quantity sold locally at Tk 389.18 per kilogram. Rahman said spinning mills are running below capacity due to gas shortages, which limit their ability to meet demand.

He warned that withdrawing the bond facility would harm garment shipments. Apparel exports fell by 2.63 percent in July-December this fiscal year, with a 14.23 percent decline in December alone.

Rahman urged local millers to modernise production to diversify yarn types and meet buyer demand.

On Sunday, apparel exporters sent a letter to the finance ministry elaborating on their concerns and mentioning almost the same demands they made yesterday.

At the press conference, garment manufacturers also proposed a number of alternatives to support the domestic spinning sector.

They suggested a 5 percent cash incentive for using local yarn to protect the $25 billion invested in the primary textile sector from being undercut by cheaper Indian imports.

The exporters also urged the government to ensure adequate gas and power supply to industrial units, as most spinning mills are running at just 60 percent capacity due to utility shortages.

They called for corporate tax rebates for export-oriented yarn producers and low-interest loans to reduce production costs and improve competitiveness.

BKMEA Executive President Fazlee Shamim Ehsan called for urgent talks with the government to reach a workable solution.

Previously, on December 29, the Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA) asked the BTTC to either suspend the bonded warehouse benefit or impose a 20 percent tariff on widely used imported yarn.

A commerce ministry letter to the NBR said that Bangladesh will need a two-stage transformation of garment items for entering key markets such as Europe, Australia, the UK, the USA, and Japan after graduating from least-developed country status in November.

To maintain GSP Plus privileges in the post-LDC era, local value addition will need to reach 40 percent.

China's economy expanded five percent in 2025, Beijing said Monday, one of its slowest rates of growth in decades as it struggles with persistently low consumer spending and a debt crisis in its property sector.

Leaders set a growth target of "around five percent" for last year, following a five percent rise in 2024.

The economy grew at 4.5 percent between October and December last year, in line with expectations but marking a significant slowdown towards the end of the year.

While China's GDP grew enough for officials to declare victory, analysts warn that growth has been uneven and figures mask weak sentiment on the ground.

Chinese consumers remain jittery about the wider economy and high unemployment, even though officials have relaxed fiscal policy and subsidised the replacement of household items in a sputtering bid to boost spending.

Retail sales, a key indicator of consumption, rose 0.9 percent year-on-year in December -- the weakest pace since the end of 2022, when stringent zero-Covid measures ended.

Last month's sales were worse than the 1.3 percent year-on-year growth recorded in November, extending a months-long slowdown.

China's crucial property sector was once a major indicator of the country's economic strength.

But in recent years it has failed to overcome a flagging debt crisis despite rate cuts and loosened restrictions on homebuying.

Fixed-asset investments in China shrunk 3.8 percent year-on-year in 2025, an inevitable rebalancing following a property and infrastructure boom in recent decades.

Real estate investment was down 17.2 percent last year.

House prices have risen slightly in some large cities but the broader market remains sluggish.

Last year also saw the return of Donald Trump to the White House and the revival of a fierce trade war between the world's two largest economies.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump reached a tentative truce to their fierce trade war when they met in late October, agreeing a pause to painful measures that included lofty tit-for-tat tariffs.

Official data showed Chinese exports to the United States plunged by 20 percent in 2025, but that had little impact on demand for Chinese products elsewhere.

Robust exports remained a bright spot in the cloudy economic picture despite that bruising trade war.

China's trade surplus hit a record $1.2 trillion last year, with officials lauding a "new historical high" filled by other trade partners.

Shipments to the ASEAN group of Southeast Asian nations rose 13.4 percent year-on-year, while exports to Africa saw 25.8 percent growth.

Exports to the European Union were also up 8.4 percent, though imports from the bloc dipped.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) on Sunday convened its 5th monthly coordination meeting with capital market stakeholders, emphasising major legal reforms and the strategic direction of the market.

Held at the BSEC Multipurpose Hall in the city, the meeting was attended by senior officials, including Dr. Anisuzzaman Chowdhury, Special Assistant to the Chief Adviser, and BSEC Chairman Khondoker Rashed Maqsood, alongside various commissioners and top representatives from stakeholder organisations, said a press release.

Major Legal Reforms Completed BSEC Chairman Khondoker Rashed Maqsood highlighted the commission’s recent legislative achievements, noting that the completion of the Margin Rules 2025, Mutual Fund Rules 2025, and Public Offer of Equity Securities Rules 2025 represents the fulfillment of the regulator’s main reform tasks.

Describing the Initial Public Offering (IPO) as the heart of the capital market, Rashed Maqsood stated that the Public Offer of Equity Securities Rules 2025 has paved the way for new IPOs to enter the market.

He urged market stakeholders to utilize these opportunities immediately, noting that a significant portion of legal reforms had been finalized by 2025.

Focus on collaboration and long-term planning, Dr. Anisuzzaman Chowdhury, who heads the committee formed by the Financial Institutions Division to strengthen the BSEC, addressed the attendees regarding the necessity of collaborative problem-solving.

“We must work to solve the identified obstacles and move forward. Everyone must cooperate and work together for solutions,” Dr. Chowdhury stated, expressing satisfaction with the mechanism of holding regular stakeholder meetings.

He directed stakeholders to resolve existing impediments quickly and called for working toward market development with specific goals set through long-term planning.

The meeting featured detailed open discussions on a wide range of initiatives aimed at market development and reform. Key topics included adoption of a 5-year development plan for the capital market; introduction of new products and the launch of a commodity exchange; listing state-owned and multinational companies; implementation of e-KYC for customer information and online BO account opening; enhancement of API connectivity among capital market institutions and facilitation of Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) and ensuring institutional good governance.

Furthermore, the discussion addressed the expansion of merchant banks’ scope of work and bringing the Central Counterparty Bangladesh Limited (CCBL) into operation. To boost investor confidence and awareness, initiatives to involve district administrations and broadcast fortnightly investment education programs on Bangladesh Television were also discussed.

The summit saw the participation of key market leaders, including DSE Chairman Mominul Islam, CCBL Chairman Major General (Retd.) Md. Wahid-Uz-Zaman, DSE Brokers Association (DBA) President Saiful Islam, and ICB Managing Director Niranjan Chandra Debnath.

Representatives from the Bangladesh Merchant Bankers Association (BMBA), Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE), and various asset management companies were also present.

The upward trend in inward remittances continued and 56.3 percent growth in January, with receiving over US $1.86 billion in 17 days of the month.

Bangladesh received $18.12 billion in inward remittances from July to January 17, 2026, in the current fiscal year FY 2025-26. It was 14.96 billion in the same period of the previous FY2024-25, and saw a growth of 21.1 percent.

Blessed by strong remittances, Bangladesh’s gross forex reserves have surpassed $33 billion, up from $29 billion under the IMF’s BPM6 standard.

Arif Hossain Khan, Executive Director and spokesperson of Bangladesh Bank, said the expatriates have sent $1.86 billion in the first 17 days of January 2026, which was $1.19 million in the same period of January 2025. It means the remittance earnings grew by 56.3 percent in this time.

The growth is attributed to several factors, including incentives offered for sending money through legal banking channels, increased encouragement for using the formal system, and the active role of exchange houses.

In FY2025-26, Bangladesh received $2.47 billion in remittances in July, $2.42 billion in August, $2.68 billion in September, $2.56 billion in October, $2.88 billion in November, and $3.22 billion in December.

This data revealed that the average inward remittance flow was over $2.42 billion in the last six months. This robust flow of remittance influences Bangladeshi policymakers to discourage lending from the IMF with tough conditions.

The Bangladesh Bank (BB) will not change its decision about paying no profits on deposits for 2024 and 2025 at five shariah-based banks now undergoing a merger, even as depositors staged protests at a number of branches.

The central bank confirmed this yesterday as the move aligns with shariah principles, under which no profit is distributed when banks incur losses, said BB officials.

Last week, BB instructed five merging lenders to recalculate their deposit balances and refrain from providing any profit for 2024 and 2025.

The banks -- First Security Islami, Social Islami, Union, Global Islami, and EXIM -- are being merged to form a new state-run institution, Sammilito Islami Bank PLC.

After the decision, depositors of the five banks expressed anger, disrupting normal operations at some branches of the commercial lenders.

The banks reported the unrest to BB and requested a reconsideration. Meanwhile, officials from the bank resolution department of BB met with the governor yesterday.

According to an official from the department who wished to remain anonymous, the governor said the decision would not be reversed as it conforms with shariah law.

He added that backing away could jeopardise the merger initiative.

Arief Hossain Khan, executive director and spokesperson for the BB, said the central bank remains firm on its stance.

On January 14, the banking regulator sent letters to the five troubled banks, stating that deposit balances would be recalculated based on positions as of December 28, 2025 and that no profit would be applied to deposits from January 1, 2024, to December 28, 2025.

Previously, it was decided that profits on deposits would be paid at the bank rate, which currently stands at 4 percent.

A day after the directive, BB Governor Ahsan H Mansur, at a press briefing, said that the move follows shariah principles.

“However, depositors will receive their full principal amount,” he said.

BB officials estimated that if implemented, the decision would reduce the banks’ liabilities by Tk 10,000 crore.

At the end of September last year, total deposits of these banks stood at Tk 141,000 crore, while the number of depositors was 75 lakh.

Officials of the merging banks said many depositors have been visiting branches and issuing threats. Some have remained at branches all day, causing operations to grind to a halt, according to letters sent to authorities.

Branch managers reported that customers have taken an “aggressive stance” and, in some locations, “transactions have been suspended”.

A senior official of Social Islami Bank told The Daily Star that if the decision is implemented, it will be “very difficult to handle customers”.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has carried out major legal reforms in the stock market, said its chairman, Khondoker Rashed Maqsood.

The capital market saw significant changes in 2025 with the completion of the Margin Rules, the Mutual Fund Rules, and the Public Offer of Equity Securities Rules, he said at a stakeholders’ meeting organised by the commission yesterday at its office in the capital.

“The heart of the capital market is the initial public offering (IPO), and the pathway for new IPOs to enter the market has been made easier through the public offer-related rules,” the BSEC chairman said.

“Now is the time to make proper use of this opportunity, and market stakeholders must work towards this,” he added.

Maqsood highlighted the commission’s initiatives and activities aimed at reforming and developing the capital market.

The pathway for new IPOs to enter the market has been made easier through the public offer-related rules
“We must work to resolve the identified obstacles or problems and move forward,” said Anisuzzaman Chowdhury, special assistant to the chief adviser and chief guest of the event.

He emphasised the need for unanimous decisions based on cooperation and collective opinions, and the importance of ensuring their implementation.

He also directed that the existing identified obstacles be resolved swiftly and called upon market stakeholders to work towards capital market development by setting clear targets under a long-term plan.

Experts at the meeting emphasised adopting a five-year plan for capital market development, introducing new products, listing state-owned enterprises and multinational companies in the capital market, developing the mutual fund sector, and ensuring institutional governance.

Mominul Islam, chairman of the DSE; Saiful Islam, president of the DSE Brokers’ Association of Bangladesh; Nuzhat Anwar, managing director of the DSE; and Niranjan Chandra Debnath, managing director of the ICB, were also present at the meeting.

Meanwhile, the DSEX, the benchmark index of the DSE, jumped 76 points, or 1.53 percent, to 5,035 points yesterday. With that, the index crossed 5,000 points after one and a half months.

The benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange rebounded above the psychologically significant 5,000-point mark today (18 January) after nearly two months, as broad-based buying enthusiasm lifted the market sharply.

The rally reflected renewed investor confidence following a prolonged period of correction, with participation rising across most sectors, according to the market insiders.

The DSEX, the prime index of the DSE, jumped 76 points or 1.53% to close at 5,035. The last time the index finished above this level was on 27 November 2025, when it closed at 5,028.

Market operators said the decisive break above the 5,000 mark has lifted short-term market sentiment, with investors widely viewing the level as a key psychological resistance.

The blue-chip DS30 index also posted a gain, advancing 26 points or 1.38% to settle at 1,939, indicating buying interest in large-cap and fundamentally strong stocks.

Market breadth was overwhelmingly positive, with 290 issues advancing against just 42 decliners, while 57 stocks remained unchanged on the DSE trading floor.

Reflecting the upbeat mood, total market capitalisation of the DSE rose by around Tk6,000 crore to Tk6.90 lakh crore by the end of the session.

Daily turnover, another crucial indicator of market health, increased significantly, rising 25% to Tk474 crore compared to the previous session, suggesting improved liquidity and higher trading activity.

Stocks that played a major role in pulling the indices higher included BRAC Bank, Grameenphone, BAT Bangladesh, Beximco Pharmaceuticals and Islami Bank.

These stocks also featured prominently in turnover, alongside Square Pharmaceuticals, City Bank and Lovello Ice-cream, indicating active participation from both institutional and retail investors.

Stockbrokers said investors are gradually returning to the market in search of undervalued opportunities after weeks of cautious trading.

They noted that selective buying of fundamentally strong large-cap stocks lifted market confidence, with speculative interest returning to certain beaten-down segments.

Notably, liquidation-risky and loss-making non-bank financial institutions dominated the top gainers' list, with Peoples Leasing, Premier Leasing, Prime Finance, BIFC and Fareast Finance recording double-digit price increases.

Analysts cautioned that such sharp rallies in weak fundamentals-driven stocks carry higher risks, even though they often attract short-term traders during bullish phases.

On the losing side, Apollo Ispat, Nurani Dyeing, Renwick Jajneswar, Fareast Life Insurance and MBL First Mutual Fund posted modest declines.

Meanwhile, the Chittagong Stock Exchange also ended the session in positive territory. The CSCX index rose 103 points to 8,728, while the CASPI advanced 165 points to close at 14,087. Turnover on the port city bourse stood at Tk7.45 crore, reflecting moderate trading activity.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) has launched an automated system that allows advance income tax paid at the import stage to be directly credited to taxpayers' e-returns, aiming to ease long-standing difficulties faced by importers.

With effect from yesterday (18 January), the NBR has completed and activated an effective system integration between its e-return platform and ASYCUDA World. As a result, income tax paid by taxpayers during the import process will now be automatically reflected as a credit in their electronic income tax returns.

The move is expected to significantly reduce hassles that importers have faced for years in claiming tax credits on advance income tax paid at the import stage, reads an NBR press release issued yesterday. It will also make e-return filing easier for import-based businesses.

Under the new system, when an importer enters business income information in the e-return, details of advance income tax paid against each bill of entry for the relevant assessment year will be automatically populated on a bill-of-entry basis. The tax paid at the import stage will then be adjusted against the taxpayer's total income tax liability, and the payable amount will be calculated accordingly within the system.

The NBR also shared updated figures on the progress of the online tax return initiative. Since the official launch of online e-return filing for the 2025-26 tax year on 4 August 2025 by Finance Adviser Dr Salehuddin Ahmed, more than 46 lakh taxpayers have registered on the e-return system, while nearly 33 lakh have already submitted their returns.

Notably, the NBR said many taxpayers for whom e-return submission is not mandatory are also choosing to file their returns online. For the first time, non-resident Bangladeshis are also able to register and submit their income tax returns through the system. So far, around 4,000 expatriate Bangladeshis have filed their income tax returns for the 2025–26 tax year online.

According to the NBR, no documents or supporting papers are required to be uploaded when submitting an online e-return. The authority said it is continuing all efforts to ensure that individual taxpayers can pay income tax and submit returns easily from home.

The NBR has urged all individual taxpayers to submit their income tax returns online using the e-return system by 31 January 2026.

The commerce ministry has recommended that the revenue board end the duty-free import of certain types of yarn under the bonded warehouse facility.

Local spinners have welcomed the recommendation, but local apparel manufacturers say this could push up production costs and undermine the country’s export competitiveness.

In a recent letter to the National Board of Revenue (NBR), the ministry recommended withdrawing the bonded facility for importing yarn of 10 to 30 count - a medium-to-coarse thickness range widely used in knitwear manufacturing. A higher count indicates less thickness.

The ministry cited mounting pressure on local spinning mills from cheaper imports, particularly from India.

Readymade garment exporters say the proposal risks unsettling the country’s largest export sector at a time of global uncertainty and intense price competition.

Leaders of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) and the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA) voiced their concerns regarding the move and announced to hold a press conference on the issue today.

BGMEA Director Faisal Samad said the suspension of duty-free imports would force garment manufacturers to rely more heavily on local yarn suppliers, where prices are already rising.

“The garment sector will be severely affected as we will have to buy yarn at higher prices from a monopolised local market,” he said, adding that BGMEA members had raised the issue at an emergency meeting.

He declined to comment further ahead of the press conference, but said exporters were deeply concerned about the government’s decision to restrict imports of “widely consumed” yarn.

BKMEA Executive President Fazlee Shamim Ehsan said imported yarn accounts for nearly 30 percent of the country’s total demand - roughly $1.5 billion worth - with most of it sourced from India. The remaining demand is met by domestic spinners.

He said local mills had already started quoting prices $0.25-0.3 (Tk 30-36) per kilogramme higher following the proposed restriction.

“It is not right to harm the export-oriented garment industry to salvage the spinning sector,” he said, arguing that targeted incentives of four to five percent could have been offered to primary textile producers instead.

The push for restricting imports follows sustained lobbying by the Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA), which has warned that some mills in the primary textile sector, which have investments of about $25 billion, are facing the risk of closure due to the import of cheap yarn from India.

In late December, BTMA urged the government to either suspend the bonded warehouse benefit or impose a 20 percent tariff on imports of the popular yarn counts.

According to BTMA sources, Bangladesh uses 400 crore kilogrammes of yarn in a year, with some 46 percent coming from India.

According to BTMA, Indian traders have been selling 30-count yarn in Bangladesh at $2.50 to $2.60 per kilogramme, even though the same yarn sells for $2.90 to $2.93 per kilogramme in India.

The association said such pricing reflects heavy incentives and has left local spinners struggling, with unsold yarn stocks reportedly reaching Tk 12,000 crore by the end of December.

The commerce ministry echoed these concerns in its letter to the NBR, noting that yarn imports surged sharply in recent years.

Import volumes rose by more than 68 percent in fiscal year 2023-24 (FY24) compared to the previous year, while values increased by over 46 percent. In FY25, volumes grew by another 18.4 percent and values by 26.3 percent.

The ministry said at least 50 spinning mills have already shut down and warned of further losses if the current import trend continues.

It also cautioned that growing dependence on imported yarn could reduce the garment sector’s competitiveness due to lengthened lead times, reduce local value addition, and put pressure on foreign currency reserves.

Exporters, however, argue that limiting access to competitively priced yarn could weaken Bangladesh’s position in global apparel markets, especially as buyers remain highly price-sensitive.

Showkat Aziz Russell, president of BTMA, said the issue must also be seen in the context of Bangladesh’s graduation from least developed country (LDC) status.

He said exporters would need to comply with “two-stage transformation” rules – using locally spun yarn instead of imported cotton – to qualify for preferential market access in destinations such as the European Union (EU), the United Kingdom and Japan after graduation.

He also noted that securing GSP Plus benefits from the EU would require at least 40 percent local value addition, compared to current levels of around 35 percent in spinning, knitting at 20 percent and weaving at 25 percent.

The local spinners mainly produce the 30-count yarn to serve the garment exporters.

While local mills can supply about 90 percent of yarn demand for knitwear and 45 percent for woven garments, the rest still depends on imports from countries including India, China and Pakistan.

Spinners said in fiscal year 2025-26, $2.0 billion worth of yarn was imported from India, with local mills using 1,600 tonnes daily.

Bangladesh is the largest destination for Indian yarn exports, receiving 44 percent of the total, while Cambodia ranks second at 21 percent.

Earlier, in April last year, Bangladesh banned yarn imports from India through land ports, though sea-route imports remained unaffected. Millers have said they do not seek a complete ban, but rather measures to curb what they describe as dumping.

Contacted, Mohammad Naziur Rahman Miah, first secretary of customs (export and bond), said the NBR had received the commerce ministry’s letter. “The issue is under consideration. No decision has been made yet.”

Non-performing loans (NPLs) at the country's non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) climbed sharply to Tk29,408 crore by the end of September 2025, accounting for more than a third of total outstanding loans, highlighting deepening stress in the sector.

According to Bangladesh Bank data, NPLs at financial institutions at the end of September 2025 account for 37.11% of total outstanding loans of Tk79,251 crore. This marks an increase of Tk1,867 crore in just three months, from Tk27,541 crore at the end of June, when classified loans accounted for 35.72% of total disbursed credit.

An analysis of the data indicates that while overall loan outstanding in the fragile NBFI sector has increased in recent months, classified loans have grown at a significantly faster pace. This suggests that not only previously disbursed loans, but also newly issued loans, are increasingly slipping into the non-performing category.

Golam Sarwar Bhuiyan, chairman of the Bangladesh Leasing and Finance Companies Association (BLFCA), told TBS that the true extent of bad loans had long been concealed. "The amount of non-performing loans in Bangladesh's financial companies already existed, but it was hidden," he said. "After 5 August 2024, the central bank management began strict monitoring, forcing financial companies to disclose the actual level of NPLs."

He added that following the change in regime, many borrowers who had taken loans from financial companies had left the country, leading to immediate loan classification. "Many loans were repeatedly rescheduled even though they had already defaulted," Bhuiyan said.

Confidence in the sector has also been shaken by regulatory actions. The Bangladesh Bank has already announced plans to wind down nine financial companies, prompting depositors to withdraw funds and further straining liquidity across the sector. "Financial companies are not getting enough funds due to the lack of confidence," Bhuiyan noted.

In December last year, the central bank's board decided to liquidate a group of deeply distressed NBFIs after their loan portfolios collapsed under massive defaults. In the first phase, the Bangladesh Bank selected nine institutions – FAS Finance, Bangladesh Industrial Finance Company (BIFC), Premier Leasing, Fareast Finance, GSP Finance, Prime Finance, Aviva Finance, People's Leasing and International Leasing – whose combined depositor exposure could be managed within the Tk5,000 crore fiscal limit set by the government.

A senior central bank official said the government had instructed the Bangladesh Bank to ensure that the fiscal burden of the liquidation process remains within that ceiling.

The Bangladesh Bank's Financial Stability Assessment Report for the September 2024 quarter also paints a bleak picture for the sector. It noted a worsening trend in NBFIs' performance due to a further deterioration in asset quality and profitability. Total assets of financial institutions declined to Tk99,493 crore, down 1.22% from the April-June 2024 quarter, alongside a broader downturn in profitability.