Gold prices in Bangladesh have surged once again, with the Bangladesh Jewellers Association (Bajus) setting a new all-time high for the precious metal.

According to a notification issued tonight (25 January), Bajus increased the price of 22-carat gold by Tk1,574 per bhori, fixing it at Tk2,57,191 — the highest ever in the country's history.

The new rates will come into effect from tomorrow.

Bajus said the decision was taken following a rise in the price of pure gold (tejabi gold) in the local market, considering the overall market situation.

Under the revised prices, 21-carat gold will be sold at Tk2,45,527 per bhori, 18-carat gold at Tk2,10,419 per bhori, while gold under the traditional method will cost Tk1,72,919 per bhori.

In addition to the selling price, buyers will have to pay a mandatory 5% VAT set by the government and a minimum 6% making charge fixed by Bajus. However, the making charge may vary depending on the design and quality of jewellery.

Bajus last adjusted gold prices on 23 January, when the price of 22-carat gold was raised by Tk6,299 to Tk2,55,617 per bhori.

With the latest revision, gold prices have been adjusted 13 times in the current month alone — increased on 10 occasions and reduced three times.

Alongside gold, silver prices have also been increased. Bajus raised the price of 22-carat silver by Tk350 per bhori, fixing it at Tk7,232, marking the highest silver price in the country's history.

According to the new rates, 21-carat silver will cost Tk6,940 per bhori, 18-carat silver Tk5,949 per bhori, and silver under the traditional method Tk4,432 per bhori.

So far this year, silver prices have been adjusted eight times, with increases on six occasions and decreases twice.

The government plans to gradually phase out the long-standing excise duty in the country, citing the need to balance revenue considerations, National Board of Revenue (NBR) Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan said today (25 January).

Speaking at a press conference at NBR headquarters in Dhaka, on the eve of International Customs Day, the NBR chief said that the government had taken a step in this direction by withdrawing excise duty on bank deposits up to Tk300,000 last year.

"We have sent a signal that we will gradually move away from this (excise duty)," he said, adding that a complete removal at once is not feasible due to potential revenue shortfalls.

Currently, excise duty is imposed on bank deposits and airfares. Deposits up to Tk300,000 are exempt, while higher amounts are taxed at different slabs. Airfares are also taxed at varying rates for domestic and international passengers. NBR sources estimate that the duty generates around Tk6,000 crore annually.

NBR extends income tax return deadline to 31 January

Addressing concerns about revenue replacement, a senior NBR official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the withdrawal would be phased out gradually, with revenue to be offset by other sectors, including tobacco.

"We expect to collect an additional Tk10,000 crore from the tobacco sector this fiscal year due to policy measures," the NBR chairman said.

The official also questioned the fairness of excise duty on bank deposits, arguing that it distorts tax equity. "Even if someone takes a loan, excise duty is deducted simply because the money is deposited in a bank. Besides this, there is VAT on services and other taxes. This is unjustified," he said. Regarding airfares, he indicated that VAT could replace excise duty if it is withdrawn.

Abdur Rahman Khan further highlighted government efforts to reduce import duties, noting that a draft plan has already been submitted.

He said several initiatives have improved the ease of doing business, including releasing 90% of imported consignments from ports within a day, though traders still raise concerns over product valuation at the import stage.

Meanwhile, the NBR chief hinted at a possible further extension of the deadline for individual income tax return filings, which is currently set to expire on 31 January.

At the same event, the chairman said that the board might consider more time if a significant number of registered taxpayers fail to submit their returns by the current cutoff.

However, he clarified that a formal decision has not yet been made.

According to NBR data, about 4.7 million individuals registered to file tax returns this year, with 3.4 million already submitted. This leaves approximately 1.3 million yet to file within the remaining six days. The original deadline of 30 November had already been extended twice, giving taxpayers a total of two additional months.

The European Union and Vietnam will elevate ties during a visit to Hanoi by the European Council President Antonio Costa on Thursday, an EU official said, as both sides seek to expand international partnerships amid disruptions from US tariffs.

The visit comes on the heels of To Lam's re-appointment as Vietnam's top official, potentially making Costa the first leader of a major power to meet Lam since the ruling Communist Party on Friday appointed him for a new term as general secretary.

The elevation of ties to Vietnam's highest level has been planned for months and was delayed largely because of schedule complications, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

It would place the EU on the same tier as China, the US and Russia among others, further expanding Vietnam's advanced partnerships, in line with the country's strategy of balancing big powers.

The European Council declined to comment. Vietnam's government did not respond to a request for comment.

These upgrades are largely symbolic, as they merely entail more frequent high-level meetings and usually no binding agreements.

Vietnam's relations with the United States worsened last year after the Trump administration imposed tariffs, despite the upgrade of bilateral ties inked by former president Joe Biden during a visit to Hanoi in late 2023.

More cooperation on tech, minerals

The upgrade with the EU is expected to generate more cooperation in multiple fields, including research, technology, energy and critical minerals, according to a draft joint statement, the official said. Vietnam has significant but often little exploited deposits of rare earths, gallium and tungsten.

The Southeast Asian trade-reliant nation is a major link in global supply chains, especially for electronics, clothing and footwear. It has a string of free trade agreements with multiple partners, including with the European Union.

The EU has repeatedly criticised Vietnam's implementation of the free trade agreement, which has boosted Vietnam's surplus with the 27-nation bloc since it came into force in 2020. The EU deficit with Hanoi stood at 42.5 billion euros ($50.26 billion) in 2024.

EU officials accuse Hanoi of hampering EU imports with multiple non-tariff barriers, but Brussels has so far taken limited action to address the situation.

Also, facing tariffs from the United States, the EU has prioritised improving ties with economic partners and expanding trade agreements, including recently with South American nations of the Mercosur bloc.

Costa will visit India before Vietnam, where together with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, he intends to hold trade talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, according to a schedule published by the EU Council.

The government is set to significantly reduce the holding tax on factories located in the Bangladesh Small and Cottage Industries Corporation (Bscic) industrial estates, aiming to ease business operations after Bscic's call for a full tax waiver.

At present, city corporations, municipalities, and union parishads collect holding tax at varying rates. City corporations charge 23% on the assessed annual value of industrial and commercial properties, while municipalities levy 3-7%, and union parishads 1-7%.

According to sources, the holding tax for factories in Bscic industrial estates may now be capped at a maximum of 5% within city corporation areas and 2% at the municipal and union parishad levels – a significant relief for small industries.

Bscic Chairman Md Saiful Islam told The Business Standard on 6 January that Bscic had formally sought a full exemption for all industrial establishments in Bscic estates. "We sent a letter to the Local Government Division requesting exemption from holding tax for industries in Bscic estates," he said.

Following the proposal, the Local Government Division held meetings on 4 December last year with city corporations, municipalities, and union parishads. While a complete waiver was not approved, officials agreed to substantially cut the tax burden.

However, the exact rates are yet to be finalised by the respective local government authorities.

A senior Bscic official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said many industrial units in Bscic estates have not been paying holding tax for years, leading to trade licence suspensions and operational difficulties. "In many areas, factories cannot renew trade licences due to disputes over holding tax, disrupting business and discouraging investment," the official said.

The official also noted that Section 24 of the Bscic Act 2023 allows for exemption of industrial units in Bscic estates from holding tax. He referenced the 2020 exemption of industrial units under Bangladesh Export Processing Zones Authority (Beza) from local taxes and fees, which prompted investors to demand similar treatment.

According to Bscic data, there are 83 industrial estates across the country – 12 within city corporation areas, 27 in municipal areas and 44 in union parishad areas. These estates contain 13,139 industrial plots, of which 11,513 have been allocated to 6,295 industrial enterprises, including 887 fully export-oriented units.

Excluding land and buildings, total investment in these enterprises stands at Tk58,000 crore. In the 2024–25 fiscal year, factories in Bscic estates produced goods worth Tk65,352 crore, with exports accounting for Tk30,947 crore. During the same period, the enterprises paid Tk4,424 crore in taxes and VAT to the government.

However, a senior official of the Local Government Division said holding tax and trade licence fees remain critical revenue sources for local authorities, who also maintain roads, street lighting, and waste management for industrial areas. "While full exemption is not feasible, Bscic industries contribute substantially to employment, production, and exports. The decision is to reduce holding tax as much as possible," the official said.

The impact of non-payment has already been felt in areas such as the tannery industrial zone under Tetuljhora Union Parishad in Hemayetpur, Savar, where trade licence renewals and new licences were blocked due to unpaid holding tax.

The Local Government Division has now instructed all city corporations, municipalities, and union parishads that payment of holding tax will no longer affect the issuance or renewal of trade licences. Any application for a trade licence must be processed in accordance with the rules.

Bscic Chairman Md Saiful Islam hoped that, with this, industries in Bscic estates should no longer face obstacles in obtaining trade licences.

The simmering conflict between Bangladesh's textile mills and garment exporters has exposed a fault line at the heart of the country's export economy—one that policymakers can ill afford to mishandle.

The immediate trigger was a commerce ministry letter asking the National Board of Revenue (NBR) to scrap the zero-duty facility for yarn imports under the bonded warehouse system. The ministry believes duty-free imports have tilted the playing field against local spinning mills and should be suspended to protect domestic producers.

While the NBR has yet to act on the 12 January request, the response from the two industries has been swift—and sharply divided.

Garment exporters have called the proposal "suicidal", warning that removing access to cheaper imported yarn would cripple competitiveness in global markets. Textile millers, on the other hand, see the move as a "lifeline" and have demanded immediate action. The Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA) has gone a step further, threatening to shut down mills from 1 February if the interim government fails to intervene.

This is not a clash between rival sectors. The two industries are deeply interdependent—and together form the backbone of Bangladesh's export economy.

The labour-intensive apparel sector earned nearly $39 billion last fiscal year, accounting for about 85% of total merchandise exports. The capital-intensive textile sector, with investments of around $23 billion, supplies yarn and fabric to garment factories. Both employ millions, rely heavily on bank financing and are highly exposed to global market shocks.

Trade and tariff analysts warn that a hostile stand-off risks destabilising the wider economy at a time when business confidence is already fragile and investors are waiting for clarity following the 12 February national elections. Supporting one sector at the expense of the other, they caution, could push the entire value chain into a deeper crisis.

How the standoff emerged

Bangladesh once relied heavily on imported yarn and fabric. Over the past three decades, however, large investments have created strong backward linkages, enabling local producers to supply nearly all knitwear demand and around half of woven garments.

That progress has come under pressure in the past two to three years. As imported yarn—mainly from India—has become cheaper, garment exporters have increasingly shifted to imports. Government data show yarn imports doubled in the two years following FY2022–23, with India dominating the supply.

The fallout for local mills has been severe. As garment orders slowed, spinning mills accumulated inventories three to four times higher than normal, while nearly half of installed capacity went idle. The slowdown spread to weaving, dyeing and printing, affecting operations across nearly 2,000 textile units.

After months of appeals from mill owners, the government moved to curb duty-free yarn imports under bond licences. Once the proposal became public, exporters reacted sharply. The BTMA's shutdown threat soon followed, pushing the two sectors into open confrontation.

BTMA argues that continuing zero-duty imports poses an existential threat to local mills. Garment manufacturers' associations—BGMEA and BKMEA—counter that scrapping the bond facility would raise production costs by 8% to 10%, adding more than $2 billion annually to exporters' expenses.

Without duty-free imports, exporters would face additional duties of around 37% on yarn, forcing them to source locally at an extra cost of $0.40–$0.60 per kilogram.

At present, Indian yarn costs about $2.55 per kg, while Bangladeshi mills say they cannot sell below $2.80—and even then struggle to break even. Exporters argue that buyers will not absorb the difference. Millers say the comparison is unfair.

Why local yarn costs more

Bangladeshi spinning mills argue that Indian exporters benefit from extensive government support, allowing them to sell yarn in Bangladesh at prices lower than in India's domestic market—what local producers describe as dumping.

According to industry estimates, Indian incentives provide benefits of nearly $0.30 per kg through export rebates, technology upgrade funds, production-linked incentives and state-level subsidies on power, land and financing.

By contrast, support for Bangladesh's textile sector has steadily declined. Cash incentives for garments made with local yarn have fallen from as high as 25% to just 1.5%. Gas prices jumped by 179% in a single adjustment three years ago. Bank interest rates have climbed to around 16%, while access to low-cost loans under the Export Development Fund has narrowed. Reduced tax rate facilities have also been withdrawn.

Some mills have compounded their problems by over-investing in high-end machinery, increasing debt burdens. The result is a widening competitiveness gap between textile producers in Bangladesh and India.

Is a middle path possible?

Economists argue that while growing dependence on imported yarn carries long-term risks—particularly supply concentration—cutting off access to cheaper inputs abruptly could damage the $40 billion garment export sector.

Professor Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said the government should explore time-bound solutions rather than blunt import restrictions.

These could include limited cash compensation, special loan facilities within LDC rules, anti-dumping investigations, or a quota system that allows duty-free imports up to a certain threshold.

Others suggest reallocating part of the government's 0.3% special cash incentive on garment exports—worth nearly Tk2,000 crore annually—to support the textile sector directly.

Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman acknowledged the dilemma, saying the government is examining alternatives.

"The textile industry is facing problems, no doubt. Something has to be done," he told The Business Standard. "We are thinking about what options are possible."

"There are ways. There could be a mix— imposing restrictions at places and relaxing steps at other places, so that all sectors are treated how they should be," said Muhammad Abdul Mazid, former chairman of NBR.

"They should not be seen as two mere industries, they are a vital part of the economy. There must be a holistic approach to balance the tariff issues," he said. While NBR can reassess the impact on withdrawal of bond facilities from certain industries, the commerce ministry has to align tariff structure to the country's key trade partners, he said, suggesting all parties involved to sit together to find solutions.

Cash incentives, subsidies, loans and weighing on options such as anti-dumping duty are among other measures suggested to support the industry which is deemed to be affected by changes in import tariff structure.

The challenge now is to act quickly—and carefully. A misstep could fracture a value chain that took decades to build, at a time when Bangladesh can least afford another economic shock.

The main reason for restoring the lottery system in primary share allocation is to boost turnover in the secondary market against the backdrop of a persistent investor exodus.

The IPO lottery system was removed in April 2021 after it was repeatedly accused of depriving retail investors of IPO shares. The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) replaced it with the pro-rata allotment system, which enabled share allocation to every valid applicant in proportion to the quantities applied for.

"We have observed that IPO shares were mostly exhausted by high net worth individuals [under the pro-rata system]. They have more money. They applied for more shares and they got more," said BSEC spokesperson Abul Kalam.

According to the market watchdog, the very objective behind removing the lottery system could not be achieved. Instead, enthusiasm surrounding new listings faded as retail investors received only nominal numbers of shares.

The BSEC brought back the lottery system even though the taskforce assigned to suggest capital market reforms made no recommendation on IPO share distribution.

"Out of 200 public opinions that we received [on the revised rules], 171 voted for the lottery system," said Kalam.

"We did not recommend bringing back the lottery system in IPO," said Md Moniruzzaman, managing director and CEO of Prime Bank Securities Ltd, adding that IPO hunters might have pushed for the return of the system.

"They might have given votes in the public opinion. It is true the lottery system encouraged participation with the hope for higher profits," said Moniruzzaman, who was in a focus group responsible for assisting the taskforce.

Under the pro-rata system, the IPO share pool was divided into different investor categories with predefined quotas for each.

The main categories were general investors (including retail and local individuals), non-resident Bangladeshis (NRBs), and eligible investors (institutional or qualified investors). The total number of shares allocated to each category was fixed as a proportion of the IPO size.

That meant if the eligible or institutional portion was oversubscribed, each applicant in this segment received shares in proportion to the amount applied for.

"The pro-rata system prefers big investors," said Kalam.

Another reason for removing the lottery system earlier was to curb investors' speculative behaviour.

The lottery-based IPO process encouraged short-term speculation, with investors applying mainly to gain quick listing profits rather than long-term investment returns.

However, the BSEC took into consideration the steep decline in the number of BO accounts since the repeal of the lottery system.

"There were nearly 3 million BO accounts in the market when the lottery system was in place. Now it has fallen to 1.6 million. Market turnover has also declined. We believe the reintroduction of the lottery system will bring back the festive mood [around listings] and increase turnover," said the BSEC spokesperson.

When retail investors make profits from IPO shares, they reinvest a portion of those profits in the secondary market, Kalam added.

Lottery-driven IPOs used to witness excessive oversubscription-sometimes hundreds of times the required amount-creating operational and settlement pressure in the IPO process.

According to Kalam, this will not happen now as BO account opening has become more tightly regulated. Investors must have a bank account and a bank certificate in their own name before opening a BO account. Opening a bank account requires a national ID card.

"Fake accounts can no longer be used to apply for IPO shares," said the BSEC spokesperson.

The regulator has also eliminated, under the revised IPO rules, the minimum requirement of Tk 50,000 investment in the secondary market for each BO account.

"We have brought back the lottery system to ensure more shares for general investors. We believe this will increase investor participation in the market," Kalam added.

As textile millers and garment exporters remain locked in a bitter dispute over duty-free yarn imports – and the Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA) has announced an indefinite shutdown of mills – the government is scrambling to avert a potential disruption to RMG exports, which account for about 85% of Bangladesh's total export earnings.

Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman told The Business Standard yesterday that the government recognises the seriousness of the crisis and is exploring possible options.

"The textile industry is facing problems, no doubt. Something has to be done," he said. "We are thinking about what alternatives are possible."

Describing the issue as complex, he added, "We must find a way out. We will try to come up with a solution as quickly as possible."

The commerce secretary noted that multiple stakeholders are involved – including the government, textile mill owners and garment manufacturers – and said their concerns would need to be carefully balanced. However, he did not specify what options were under active consideration.

Shutdown threat ahead of polls

Meanwhile, textile mill owners have threatened to shut down factories from 1 February, citing what they describe as prolonged government inaction in protecting the $23 billion textile industry. The announcement comes at a sensitive time, less than two weeks before the national election scheduled for 12 February.

BTMA President Showkat Aziz Russell formally announced the decision yesterday.

"This is not a threat. The sector will shut down anyway," he said. "This is a crisis, a national crisis."

Russell criticised the pace of policymaking, saying, "In any situation, India can make a decision within a few hours, whereas our government cannot do so even in months."

He also alleged that while the government provides various incentives to the garment sector, textile mill owners do not benefit from them. Instead, he claimed, most of the gains flow to foreign buyers.

According to Russell, under the open costing method any increase in production costs is ultimately passed on to buyers. However, if domestic textile mills collapse, garment manufacturers will be forced to import yarn from India at higher prices in the long run, eroding competitiveness.

Risks to workers, banks and exports

Industry insiders warned that an actual shutdown of textile mills would have far-reaching consequences. More than 10 lakh workers employed in the sector could face uncertainty over wages and benefits, potentially triggering labour unrest.

A halt in yarn production would disrupt the garments supply chain, while difficulties in repaying bank loans could push non-performing loans (NPLs even higher at a time when banks are already under pressure, with NPLs estimated at around 35%.

Economists warn that large-scale closures in the textile sector could add further strain to an economy already grappling with multiple challenges.

Against this backdrop, experts have urged the government to act swiftly to reach an acceptable solution that balances the interests of yarn-producing textile mills and garment exporters.

How the dispute escalated

The conflict intensified after the Ministry of Commerce, responding to a letter from the Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission (BTTC), wrote to the National Board of Revenue on 12 January seeking the withdrawal of the existing duty-free yarn import facility under bonded licences.

Garment exporters strongly opposed the move, warning of "tough action" and describing the withdrawal of the facility as "suicidal" for the export-oriented apparel sector.

Amid the backlash, the commerce ministry appeared to step back from its position. Textile mill owners later met the finance adviser on Wednesday, seeking the immediate issuance of an order withdrawing the bonded facility for yarn imports, but received no clear response.
Will commerce ministry step back on yarn duties amid garment exporters' pushback?

In frustration, BTMA held what it described as an "emergency press conference" yesterday to reiterate its shutdown stance.

"The apparel sector contributes 13% to the country's GDP, yet policymakers do not even allocate 13 minutes for the sector's people," Russell said. "Every department is simply passing responsibility to others, like a game of pillow passing."

Reiterating the shutdown threat, he added, "We will shut down no matter what. We do not have the capacity to repay bank loans. Our capital has been reduced by half."

BTMA leaders said mill owners have repeatedly sought either the withdrawal of the bonded facility for yarn imports from India or the introduction of special cash incentives to help the sector survive.

Potential fallout of textile mill shutdowns

Around 10 ‍lakh workers are employed in Bangladesh's textile sector. If these factories are shut down from 1 February, just ahead of the national election, the payment of workers' wages will become uncertain before the polls, potentially triggering labour unrest.

Speaking to The Business Standard after the press conference, Showkat Aziz said, "If mills are shut down, workers will resort to vandalism at factories to demand their wages."

He said textile entrepreneurs are deeply intertwined with the sector. "Textiles are not our only business. We expanded our other businesses around this industry. If textile mills shut down, everything else will also struggle," he said, adding that NPLs would inevitably rise.

"We would survive only if we could exit this business," he added.
How escalating US-EU trade war sparks fears for Bangladesh RMG exports

Professor Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said textile mill closures would not only fuel labour unrest but also disrupt raw material supplies for garment exports, while increasing import dependence.

"If large, capital-intensive mills shut down and fail to repay loans, NPLs will rise further," he warned.

Experts suggest alternatives

Dr Mostafa Abid Khan, an international trade expert and former member of the BTTC, said withdrawing bonded facilities would hurt garment exports, but stressed that spinning mills must be sustained as an import-substituting backward linkage industry.

"Any decision must be taken through consultations with all stakeholders and in compliance with World Trade Organization rules," he said, adding that a mechanism should be developed to support spinning mills so they remain competitive.

Mustafizur Rahman said there is no obligation to protect textile mills by withdrawing bonded facilities for garment exporters.

"In line with LDC rules, limited cash compensation or special loan facilities could be provided for a specific period," he said.

He also suggested initiating anti-dumping investigations against India if evidence shows yarn is being exported to Bangladesh at unfairly low prices, which could justify the imposition of duties. Alternatively, import quotas could be considered.

Addressing concerns about WTO violations, he noted that no country has taken to dispute settlement over such measures during LDC status or within three years of graduation, making the risk relatively low.

Yarn import trends

In FY25, Bangladesh imported yarn worth about Tk26,000 crore – more than $2 billion – with over 80% sourced from India. Yarn imports from India have more than doubled over the past three years.

Local entrepreneurs claim Indian government incentives allow exporters to sell yarn to Bangladesh at prices roughly $0.30 lower than domestic prices, leaving local mills unable to compete. As a result, stocks have piled up and some factories are operating at only half their installed capacity.

However, Fazlee Shamim Ehsan, executive president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA), disputed claims of a continuous rise in imports.

"From July to December, imports declined compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year, mainly because garment exports have fallen," he said.

He argued that the core issue is declining competitiveness in the domestic textile sector.

"We all agree the textile sector needs protection," he said. "But it cannot come at the cost of harming garment exporters. If India supports its industry, Bangladesh can consider similar support if necessary."

BGMEA Acting President Salim echoed those concerns last week, warning that blocking imports could create a monopoly, as local mills cannot supply all yarn types, particularly premium varieties.

He said exporters would prefer local sourcing if mills could ensure timely delivery and competitive pricing, and urged the government to support spinning mills through productivity upgrades, incentives and uninterrupted energy supply.

A striking contradiction played out on the Dhaka Stock Exchange last week. Even as Bangladesh Bank prepared to wind up nine non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) deemed non-viable, shares of several of those very firms surged spectacularly, fuelled not by recovery hopes but by a wave of speculative trading chasing quick gains.

Stocks of Fareast Finance, Premier Leasing, International Leasing, FAS Finance, Peoples Leasing, Prime Finance and Bangladesh Industrial Finance Company (BIFC) jumped more than 50% to over 60% within a week.

Market analysts said the sharp rise had little to do with fundamentals and was instead fuelled by short-term traders exploiting volatility triggered by recent regulatory announcements.

The rally followed Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur's statement that nine NBFIs would be declared non-viable and placed under liquidation after independent audits.

He made the remarks at a press briefing at the central bank headquarters on 5 January, saying independent auditors would be appointed to determine the actual financial condition of the troubled institutions.

The nine NBFIs set for liquidation are FAS Finance, BIFC, Premier Leasing, Fareast Finance, GSP Finance, Prime Finance, Aviva Finance, Peoples Leasing and International Leasing.

Immediately after the announcement, several of the stocks witnessed panic selling, as investors feared a complete wipeout of shareholder value. That sentiment soon reversed, however, with aggressive speculative buying pushing prices to upper circuit limits on multiple trading sessions.

In an interview with The Business Standard, Governor Mansur said the government had agreed to provide funds to safeguard individual depositors under the newly enacted Bank Resolution Ordinance 2025.

He said individual depositors would get back their principal, though interest would not be paid, while institutional depositors would depend on recoveries from the liquidation process.

Bangladesh Bank will appoint liquidators to assess assets and liabilities, recover defaulted loans and sell properties and investments before distributing proceeds among creditors as per law.

Market rides broader optimism

The speculative surge in weak NBFI stocks came amid a broader rally on the Dhaka Stock Exchange.

The benchmark DSEX advanced 140 points, or 2.84%, to 5,099 last week, while the DS30 index rose 50 points, or 2.62%, to close at 1,962.

Market breadth remained strong, with 309 stocks gaining against 41 losers. Average daily turnover jumped 51% week-on-week to Tk575 crore, and total market capitalisation rose by Tk6,300 crore.

EBL Securities, in its weekly market review, said the market regained recovery momentum on the back of broad-based participation and renewed buying interest in undervalued blue-chip stocks.

The market started the week on a strong note and sustained positive momentum for three consecutive sessions. Although some profit booking was seen toward the end of the week, it did not materially weaken the bullish sentiment.

Insurance stocks saw notable accumulation following recent sector developments, while pharmaceuticals and banking also drew strong investor interest. Most sectors ended the week in positive territory.

Bangladesh's insurance companies paid out less than half of the premiums collected in the first nine months of 2025, raising concerns over mounting unpaid claims and eroding public confidence.

According to official data, between January and September 2025, insurance companies collected approximately Tk4,600 crore in premiums from policyholders. However, during the same period, claims worth only Tk2,221 crore were settled – equivalent to 48% of the total premium income.

At the same time, total outstanding claims across the sector stood at Tk9,624 crore, highlighting a widening gap between premium collection and claims settlement.

Analysis of data from the Insurance Development and Regulatory Authority (Idra) shows that the sector's average claims settlement rate during the nine-month period was just 23%. In life insurance, the rate stood at 35.18%, while in non-life insurance it was only 7.55%.

Of the Tk4,600 crore in total premiums collected, life insurers accounted for Tk3,050 crore and paid Tk2,106 crore in claims. Non-life insurers collected Tk1,547 crore but settled claims of only Tk275 crore.

The figures indicate that although policyholders continue to pay premiums regularly, insurers are disbursing significantly less in claims, causing unpaid liabilities to accumulate over time. As a result, the overall claims settlement ratio is declining at an alarming pace.

A key indicator in assessing insurers' financial health is the Incurred Claim Ratio (ICR), which measures the proportion of claims paid relative to premiums earned within a specific period. For example, if a health insurer collects Tk1 crore in premiums and pays Tk80 lakh in claims, its ICR would be 80%, with the remaining Tk20 lakh typically covering operating expenses and profit.

In the insurance industry, an ICR between 60% and 90% is generally considered healthy, reflecting a balance between customer service and financial sustainability. Companies within this range tend to enjoy higher customer trust and long-term stability.

However, when the ICR falls below 50%, it suggests that an insurer is paying out relatively low claims compared to premium income. While this may boost short-term profitability, it raises serious concerns about service standards and fair settlement practices, potentially undermining public confidence.

Industry insiders note that newly registered insurers often report lower claims ratios in their early years, as most policies have not yet matured. Over time, as policy terms are completed, maturity and death claims rise, naturally putting the ICR at a lower level.

In Bangladesh, particularly in the life insurance segment, several established companies have historically maintained higher claims payouts due to a large number of mature policies. However, sector observers warn that many firms are now deviating from this normal trajectory.

"There appears to be growing reluctance among some insurers to settle claims promptly, even as they aggressively collect premiums," said a former chief executive officer of an insurance company, speaking on condition of anonymity.

He added that if policyholders' funds are not paid out in claims, they should ordinarily remain within the company's life fund or investment portfolio. Yet, in reality, both life funds and investment volumes are reportedly declining.

"This raises legitimate questions about how the collected premiums are being utilised," he said. "If the funds are invested internally, why are adequate returns not being generated? And if profits are insufficient, why are claims regularly delayed?"

According to him, weak oversight and limited accountability have allowed such practices to persist, leaving policyholders financially distressed and further eroding trust in the sector.

In a recent move aimed at restoring discipline and transparency, Idra suspended licences of individual agents operating in the non-life insurance segment, effective from 1 January. Earlier, acting on a proposal from the Bangladesh Insurance Association, the regulator set the commission rate for individual agents in non-life insurance at 0%.

Sector insiders believe that proper implementation of these reforms could help revive business growth, improve governance standards and ultimately raise claims settlement rates, thereby rebuilding public confidence in the insurance market.

Walton Hi-Tech Industries posted a 19.34% year-on-year rise in profit in the first half of FY26, driven by lower raw material costs, a stable exchange rate, tighter control over production expenses and strong management strategies.

According to the company's latest quarterly financial statements, the leading local electronics manufacturer reported a net profit of Tk363.34 crore for the July-December period, up from Tk304 crore in the same period a year earlier.

Revenue during the six months rose by 8.48% year-on-year to Tk2,762.34 crore, up from Tk2,546 crore in the corresponding period of the previous year. As a result, earnings per share (EPS) climbed to Tk10.90, compared with Tk9.14 a year earlier.

However, in the October-December quarter of 2025, its earnings per share stood at Tk4.27, down from Tk4.66 in the same period of the previous year.

Today, the company's shares edged up by 0.08% to close at Tk384.20 on the Dhaka Stock Exchange.

In a press statement yesterday following a board meeting, the company said the improvement was driven by a stable foreign exchange rate, cautious and timely procurement of raw materials, and effective control over production costs.

It also credited strong management direction, efficient cost management and strategic planning for the gains across key financial indicators, including sales, profit, EPS and operating cash flow.

Walton said it expects the growth momentum in sales, profit, cash flow and other financial indicators to continue in the coming quarters.

The company's net asset value (NAV) per share rose to Tk257.24 excluding revaluation and Tk358.41 including revaluation, reflecting its strong financial foundation.

Its operating cash flow also showed significant improvement. In the first half of the current financial year, net operating cash flow per share increased to Tk19.41, from Tk6.30 in the same period last year.

The company said this was mainly due to an 8.07% increase in collections from customers and an 18.97% reduction in payments to raw material and other suppliers.

Notably, Walton said its operating cash flow and overall financial stability remained unaffected despite the value-added tax on refrigerators and air conditioners being raised from 7.5% to 15% in the 2025-26 financial year.

Meanwhile, at the company's board meeting, the proposed merger scheme between Walton Digi-Tech Industries Ltd (WDIL), the acquiree, and Walton Hi-Tech Industries PLC (WHIPLC), the acquirer, was approved.

However, the merger will be finalised and implemented only after securing approvals from the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC), the High Court Division of the Supreme Court of Bangladesh, other relevant regulatory authorities, as well as the consent of general shareholders and creditors.

As of 31 December 2025, the company's sponsors and directors jointly held 61.09% of its shares, while institutional investors owned 0.75% and general investors 38.16%.

Founded in 2008, Walton entered the electronics and home appliance market at a time when the sector was largely dependent on imports.

The company now leads the domestic refrigerator market with more than 72% market share and has a strong presence in televisions, air conditioners, ceiling fans, LED lights and other home appliances.

Walton began exporting refrigerators in 2011 and currently ships a range of products – including refrigerators, mobile phones, compressors and televisions – to markets in Europe, Asia and Africa.

The cost of the Rooppur nuclear power plant is set to rise by Tk 25,593 crore, pushing the total outlay to Tk 138,685 crore and extending the completion deadline to 2028.

The revised proposal is expected to be placed before the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council today, with Chief Adviser Professor Muhammad Yunus will chair the meeting.

If approved, the first revision will lift the 2,400 MW project cost from Tk 113,092 crore, an increase of about 23 percent. The original deadline of the country’s first nuclear power project was December 31, 2025.

The project was initially approved in 2016, with around 90 percent of the funding coming from a soft Russian loan.

According to Planning Commission documents, the cost escalation is driven mainly by higher allocation for project components, adding 10 new ones, and the depreciation of local currency taka against the US dollar.

As Bangladesh’s first nuclear project, limited prior experience led to an underestimation of costs related to maintenance, spare parts and advisory services, it said.

The documents mention that the combined allocation for 38 components has been increased in the revised development project proposal, including expanded facilities at the residential bloc Green City.

Besides, additional requirements emerged during the long implementation period, contributing to higher costs.

The Ministry of Science and Technology, the implementing agency of the nuclear power plant, also cited the sharp fall in the exchange rate from an original assumption of Tk 80 per dollar, alongside the exhaustion of allocations for advance payments, customs duty and value-added tax (VAT).

Delays caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war and international sanctions on some Russian banks have led to extensions of both the loan agreement and the construction timeline, it said.

“The dollar exchange rate was Tk 80 when the project began in 2016; it has now reached Tk 122.40. This shift is the primary driver behind the cost increase,” said Project Director Md Kabir Hossain.

He said that despite the higher overall cost, the project saved Tk 166 crore from the government exchequer. While expenditures increased in 34 components, allocations were reduced in 49 others.

FUEL LOADING AT UNIT-1 LIKELY IN FEB

Of the two units at the plant, construction work at unit-1 was completed last year. However, the unit has not yet entered operation due to the incomplete technical testing process.

Following a recent site visit, senior government officials said fresh nuclear fuel loading for unit-1 is likely to begin in the last week of February this year, subject to the Russian side completing its final requirements.

“Our preparations for fuel loading are complete. The Russian side expects to begin loading at unit-1 in late February, and we are hopeful the plant will be ready within this timeframe,” Md Anwar Hossain, secretary at the Ministry of Science and Technology, told The Daily Star last week.

He said that after missing earlier schedules due to a lack of preparedness, fuel loading has now become the main focus to bring the country’s first nuclear power plant online.

Project officials said that if fuel loading starts in late February, a physical start-up could take place by April, with power generation possibly beginning by mid-year. The timeline, however, depends on the successful completion of critical tests and machinery inspections.

“It is delaying to complete all the tests as many complications are found out during the test period, and we are bound to solve those to reach the next period. In this way a huge amount of time is spent.” Hossain said.

Without completing the required tests and machinery preparation, the exact timing of fuel loading cannot be confirmed, he added.

India and Europe hope to strike the “mother of all deals” when EU chiefs meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi next week, as the two economic behemoths seek to forge closer ties.

Facing challenges from China and the United States, India and the European Union have been negotiating a massive free trade pact -- and talks, first launched about two decades ago, are nearing the finishing line.

“We are on the cusp of a historic trade agreement,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said this week.

Von der Leyen and European Council president Antonio Costa will attend Republic Day celebrations Monday before an EU-India summit Tuesday, where they hope to shake hands on the accord.

Securing a pact described by India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal as “the mother of all deals”, would be a major win for Brussels and New Delhi as both seek to open up new markets in the face of US tariffs and Chinese export controls.

But officials have been eager to stress there is more to it than commerce.

“The EU and India are moving closer together at the time when the rules-based international order is under unprecedented pressure through wars, coercion and economic fragmentation,” the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas said Wednesday.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and US President Donald Trump’s punitive tariffs have brought momentum to the relationship between India and the EU, said Praveen Donthi, of the International Crisis Group think tank.

“The EU eyes the Indian market and aims to steer a rising power like India away from Russia, while India seeks to diversify its partnerships, doubling down on its strategy of multi-alignment at a time when its relations with the US have taken a downward turn,” he said.

The summit will offer Brussels the chance to turn the page after a bruising transatlantic crisis over Greenland -- now seemingly defused. Together the EU and India account for about a quarter of the world’s population and GDP.

Bilateral trade in goods reached 120 billion euros ($139 billion) in 2024, an increase of nearly 90 percent over the past decade, according to EU figures, with a further 60 billion euros ($69 billion) in trade in services. But both parties are eager to do more.

“India still accounts for around only around 2.5 percent of total EU trade in goods, compared with close to 15 percent for China,” an EU official said, adding the figure gave a sense of the “untapped potential” an agreement could unlock.

EU makers of cars, machinery and chemicals have much to gain from India lowering entry barriers, said Ignacio Garcia Bercero, an analyst at Brussels think tank Bruegel, who led EU trade talks with New Delhi over a decade ago.

“India is one of the most heavily protected economies in the world, with very, very high tariffs, including on many products where the European Union has a competitive advantage,” he told AFP.

Its economy in the doldrums, the 27-member EU is also pushing to ease exports of spirits and wines and strengthen intellectual property rules. India -- the fastest‑growing major economy in the world -- wants easier market access for products such as textiles and pharmaceuticals.

EU officials were tight-lipped about the deal’s contents as negotiations are ongoing.

But agriculture, a sensitive topic in both India and Europe, is likely to play a limited role, with New Delhi eager to protect its dairy and grain sectors.

Talks are focusing on a few sticking points, including the impact of the EU’s carbon border tax on steel exports and safety and quality standards in the pharmaceutical and automotive sectors, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Still EU officials said they were confident negotiations could be concluded in time for the summit.

An accord on mobility to facilitate movement for seasonal workers, students, researchers and highly skilled professionals, is also on the menu, alongside a security and defence pact.

The latter envisages closer cooperation in areas including maritime security, cybersecurity and counter-terrorism, an EU official said. It is also a “precondition” for the possible joint production of military equipment, said a second EU official.

New Delhi, which has relied on Moscow for decades for key military hardware, has tried to cut its dependence on Russia in recent years by diversifying imports and pushing its own domestic manufacturing base. Europe is doing the same vis-a-vis the US.

“We’re ready to open a new chapter in EU-India relationships, and really to unlock what we think is the transformative potential of this partnership,” said another EU official.

Global stocks were subdued and precious metals hit new highs Friday as US President Donald Trump followed up conciliatory comments on Greenland with a fresh warning on Iran.

Trump, who on Wednesday backed away from threatened tariffs on Europe over Greenland, told reporters the United States was sending a "massive fleet" toward Iran "just in case."

Gold -- a safe-haven asset -- pushed closer to a record $5,000 an ounce, while fellow safe haven silver also kept rising, blasting through $102 an ounce amid worries over what Trump may say next, or actually do.

The dollar retreated, falling to a four-month low against the euro.

Sentiment had calmed over the past two days after the US president pulled back from his threat to hit several European nations with levies because of their opposition to Washington taking over the Danish autonomous territory of Greeland.

Trump has repeatedly left open the option of new military action against Iran after Washington backed and joined Israel's 12-day war in June aimed at degrading Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

The prospect of immediate American action seemed to recede in recent days, with both sides insisting on giving diplomacy a chance.

European markets sought direction in vain, Frankfurt closing just in the green as London and Paris fell on the red side of the line at the end of the week.

Wall Street painted a similar picture, with the Dow retreating while the Nasdaq pushed higher.

Intel plunged 17 percent after lackluster expectations on the chip maker's earnings.

Asian markets closed higher.

- Powell under pressure -

Trump's latest salvo against allies revived trade war fears and uncertainty about US investment, putting downward pressure on the dollar this week.

Analysts said there was no guarantee that Europe-US relations had improved durably.

The US president's willingness to threaten tariffs over any issue had rattled confidence on trading floors, boosting safe-haven metals, analysts said.

Investors were also preparing for next week's Federal Reserve meeting following economic data broadly in line with forecasts and after US prosecutors took aim at boss Jerome Powell, which has raised fears over the bank's independence.

The bank is tipped to hold interest rates steady, after cutting them in the previous three meetings.

The meeting also comes as Trump considers candidates to replace Powell when the Fed chair's term comes to an end in May.

The Bank of Japan left its key interest rate unchanged ahead of a snap election next week, which could impact government spending plans.

After sharp volatility in the wake of the announcement, the yen traded slightly higher.

Next week's US earnings calendar is packed with results from Apple, Microsoft, Boeing, Tesla, Meta and other corporate giants.

- Key figures at around 2120 GMT -

New York - Dow: DOWN 0.6 percent at 49,098.71 (close)

New York - S&P 500: FLAT at 6,915.61 (close)

New York - NASDAQ: UP 0.3 percent at 23,501.24 (close)

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 0.1 percent at 10,143.44 (close)

Paris - CAC 40: DOWN 0.1 percent at 8,143.05 (close)

Frankfurt - DAX: UP 0.2 percent at 24,900.71 (close)

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 0.3 percent at 53,846.87 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 0.5 percent at 26,749.51 (close)

Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.3 percent at 4,136.16 (close)

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1823 from $1.1755 on Thursday

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3636 from $1.3501

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 157.00 yen from 158.41 yen

Euro/pound: DOWN at 86.70 pence from 87.07 pence

West Texas Intermediate: UP 2.9 percent at $61.07 per barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: UP 2.8 percent at $65.88 per barrel

China gets up to a fifth of its imported oil from Iran and another 4% to 5% from Venezuela, often through clandestine channels to skirt United States sanctions — or at least it did before recent disruptions.

US President Donald Trump's move earlier this month to unseat Venezuela's longtime leader, Nicolas Maduro, redirect its oil to the US and impose 25% tariffs on Iran-linked trade has raised serious questions about energy security in the world's second-largest economy.

Oil prices briefly spiked on fears that China's discounted Iranian supplies could be hit, while experts warned that US seizures of Venezuela-linked oil tankers may further constrict flows.

Can China's domestic production fill the gap?

Beijing, meanwhile, has limited room to fall back on its domestic oil production to plug the gap.

As most of China's imported oil runs through the narrow, congested Malacca Strait, Beijing has long treated the route as a strategic vulnerability. The strait, which is patrolled by the US navy, became a potential chokepoint during Trump's first term as bilateral tensions escalated with Washington.

In 2019, President Xi Jinping ordered the ramping up of exploration and refining at home, launching the Seven-Year Action Plan and billions in new investments by China's oil majors CNPC, Sinopec and CNOOC. Those gains, however, have been modest.

Domestic production rose from 3.8 million barrels per day in 2018 to around 4.32 million barrels per day last year. However, even the growth from new wells, including tight shale fracking— tight oil or shale is found in impermeable shale and limestone rock deposits — could only offset the decline of China's giant legacy fields, like Daqing in northeastern Heilongjiang Province and Shengli on the eastern Yellow River Delta.

June Goh, a Singapore-based senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities, said the cumulative output growth of 8.9% since 2021 is "huge," surpassing Beijing's target of the equivalent of 4 million barrels a day.

"The recent supply risk serves to prove that what they are doing is right," Goh told DW. But she warned that further production growth was unlikely to be "exponential" as China's oil majors are struggling to discover new reserves.

Other oil sector experts who have closely tracked China's efforts to boost domestic production have described the situation more bluntly.

"[Despite] a huge amount of investment over the past 15 years or more," output has largely been "running to stay still," Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst of the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, told DW.

Myllyvirta said despite billions of yuan being poured into new oil wells, fracking and offshore projects, domestic oil production "has not budged."

Oil stockpiles will help offset losses from Iran, Venezuela

With domestic output offering little upside, Beijing is leaning more on oil reserves. Since late 2023, Chinese policymakers significantly accelerated the expansion and filling of emergency stockpiles, known as strategic petroleum reserves (SPR). The move was fueled by growing geopolitical tensions following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and a global surge in energy prices.

China was partly insulated after cutting deals with Iran and Russia to secure heavily discounted crude at below-market rates amid Western sanctions. Moscow became China's top oil supplier until last year, when US sanctions on Russian firms and tankers caused a noticeable drop in flows.

Iran has since filled much of the gap, with nearly all of its exports — up to 2 million barrels per day at one point last year — delivered covertly to China via shadow fleets, ship-to-ship transfers and relabeling to disguise origins and evade tracking.

These stockpiles were increased further in 2025, Reuters news agency reported in October, with 11 new storage sites expected to be operational by early this year.

Goh thinks stockpiling rather than production increases will help China to further boost its energy independence amid likely falling supplies from Iran, Venezuela and Russia.

"China currently has 110 days of cover, which is higher than the OECD target of 90 days," she said, referring to both the SPR and commercial reserves. "They have set a target of 180 days, so efforts to stockpile will now be accelerated given the geopolitical risks."

Renewables, electrification emerge as the safer bet for China

While reserves provide immediate cushioning, longer-term resilience lies in the other measures China has pursued to strengthen energy security. These include rapid electrification and a record build-out of renewable energy.

Beijing has spent the past five years aggressively shifting oil-consuming sectors, including transport and heavy industry, toward electricity. Oil use in the transport sector peaked in 2023, China's largest state oil producer, CNPC, reported last February. The country is upgrading its grid and building ultra-high-voltage lines to carry power from remote generation hubs to coastal industrial centers.

Electric vehicles (EV) now account for well over half of new car sales, and entire city bus fleets in Shenzhen, Guangzhou and dozens of provincial capitals have already gone fully electric. The rapid rollout of more than a million EV charging stations nationwide has helped cap growth in gasoline demand even as the economy expands.

In 2024 and 2025 alone, China added more solar capacity than the rest of the world combined, alongside record wind installations across Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and coastal provinces.

"China's wind and solar capacity growth has been more than 300 gigawatts per year over the past three years and is likely to have reached 400 gigawatts last year," Myllyvirta noted.

Although these efforts can't eliminate the country's reliance on imported crude, they do blunt the impact of possible disruptions from heavily-sanctioned oil suppliers.

As China's leaders prepare to unveil the next 5-year plan in March — the blueprint that will steer national economic and energy priorities until the early 2030s — further investments in domestic fossil fuel production, electrification and renewables are expected to feature heavily.

"For the next 5-year plan, China has a wide range of possible targets," Myllyvirta said. "Combined with [additional oil] storage, maintaining that rate of renewable growth could substitute a lot of gas or coal in power generation. Electrification can replace all fossil fuels in industry, transportation and buildings."

Oil prices settled at their highest in over a week on Friday after US President Donald Trump ratcheted up pressure against Iran through more sanctions on vessels that transport its oil, and announced an armada was heading towards the Middle Eastern nation.

Brent crude futures rose $1.82, or 2.8 percent, to settle at $65.88 a barrel, the highest since January 14. US West Texas Intermediate crude gained $1.71, or 2.9 percent, at $61.07, also a more than one-week high.

Both benchmarks notched weekly gains of over 2.5 percent.

Trump’s statements renewed warnings to Tehran against killing protesters or restarting its nuclear program. The escalating pressure has caused concerns of oil supply disruptions in the Middle East. Kazakhstan has been struggling to resume output from one of the world’s largest oilfields.

Warships, including an aircraft carrier and guided-missile destroyers, will arrive in the Middle East in the coming days, a US official said. The United States conducted strikes on Iran last June.

The US on Friday also imposed sanctions on nine vessels and eight related firms involved in transporting Iranian oil and petroleum products, the US Treasury said in a statement.

At about 3.2 million barrels per day according to Opec figures, Iran is Opec’s fourth-biggest crude oil producer behind Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates. It is also a major exporter to China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer.

Chevron said oil output at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oilfield has yet to resume after Chevron-led operator Tengizchevroil announced a shutdown on Monday following a fire.

The incident exacerbated problems for Kazakhstan’s oil industry, already challenged by bottlenecks at its main exporting gateway on the Black Sea, which has been damaged by Ukrainian drones.

JP Morgan said on Friday that Tengiz, which accounts for nearly half of Kazakhstan’s production, could remain offline for the rest of the month and that Kazakhstan’s crude output is likely to average only 1 million to 1.1 million bpd in January, compared with a usual level of around 1.8 million bpd.

Colombia is suspending electricity sales to Ecuador and will impose a 30 percent tariff on 20 products from its neighbor.

Oil prices climbed earlier in the week on Trump’s moves on Greenland, but dropped by about 2 percent on Thursday as he backed off tariff threats against Europe and ruled out military action.

Trump said on Thursday that Denmark, NATO and the US had reached a deal that would allow “total access” to Greenland.

Import activity in Bangladesh showed signs of a modest recovery in the first five months of the current fiscal year (FY26), supported by a stable dollar market and preparations for Ramadan.

However, the recovery remains fragile as businesses adopt a cautious ‘wait-and-see’ approach ahead of the national election.

According to Bangladesh Bank data, Letters of Credit (LC) openings increased by 4.5 percent to $29.69 billion during July–November of FY26, up from $28.4 billion in the same period last year.

The data highlights a gap between LC openings and final payments with high interest rates and political uncertainty slowing settlements.

LC openings surged 32.22 percent to $911 million, reflecting renewed investments in energy-efficient equipment but settlements fell 16.77 percent to $745.5 million.

Ahead of Ramadan, LC openings rose 10.64 percent to $2.85 billion while settlements slightly declined to $2.41 billion, according the data.

Besides, openings increased marginally by 0.42 percent to $10.29 billion, indicating cautious production due to weak domestic demand and limited working capital.

Despite a stable interbank exchange rate at Tk 122 per dollar over the past nine months, high rates have raised import costs and debt servicing burdens.

Overall LC settlements dropped slightly by 0.63 percent to $27.94 billion during the July–November period.

The government is working to make Bangladesh's export sector more diversified and competitive, reducing over-reliance on the readymade garments industry, Commerce Adviser Sk Bashir Uddin said today (22 January).

He made the remarks while speaking as the chief guest at a seminar titled "Role of Competitiveness for Jobs Project on Export Diversification in Bangladesh" at the Bangladesh-China Friendship Exhibition Centre in Purbachal in the afternoon.

The adviser said expanding Bangladesh's presence in global markets requires product diversification, supportive policies and capable entrepreneurs. "Entrepreneurs must be hardworking and build the right knowledge and skills to achieve their goals," he said.

He said the government has started major reforms and investments under the Export Competitiveness for Jobs (EC4J) project to achieve an export target of $100 billion by 2030.

Referring to past policy approaches, the adviser said that for 16 years the country had followed largely utopian, cost-driven plans without adequate grounding.

"Now we are adopting policies, engaging with businesses and debating openly – all in the national interest," he said, adding that the country is trying to position itself amid shifting global geopolitical dynamics.

Commerce Ministry Additional Secretary and EC4J Project Director Md Abdur Rahim Khan delivered the welcome address, while Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman spoke as a special guest at the seminar.

In a move that could reshape the future of Bangladesh's national fish, PRAN-RFL Group is planning to farm hilsa for the first time in the country using advanced indoor aquaculture technology – an approach never before attempted commercially in the country.

The initiative will use recirculating aquaculture system (RAS) technology and be implemented jointly with Denmark-based Assentoft Aqua Limited, with an investment of €30 million, or around Tk430 crore.

Alongside hilsa, the project also plans to culture Asian seabass (coral) and other marine fish in the high-tech and fully controlled indoor environment. An agreement for the project was signed yesterday between PRAN-RFL Group and Assentoft Aqua.

The facility is expected to be set up at the Mirsarai Economic Zone in Chattogram or another suitable location agreed upon by both parties. The full investment will be rolled out in two to three phases over the next two years.

Hilsa is not only Bangladesh's national fish but also a powerful cultural symbol, carrying deep emotional value and commanding an increasingly high value in international markets.

Demand has been rising steadily among Bangladeshi expatriates in the Middle East, Europe, the United States, Canada and Australia. Yet exports remain limited due to dependence on natural sources, changes in river systems and seasonal fishing bans.

High domestic demand also means hilsa is often scarce, even at premium prices.

According to the Department of Fisheries, while overall production has increased in recent years, there is still a shortage of export-quality hilsa. Industry insiders say success in controlled hilsa farming could therefore mark a major breakthrough.

PRAN Group Managing Director Eleash Mridha told TBS the company was responding to growing local and global demand for premium marine fish.

"In view of the rising demand for quality marine fish at home and abroad, PRAN Group wants to farm these species in Bangladesh using modern RAS technology," he said.

"Assentoft Aqua has already been producing fish at an industrial scale in developed countries using this technology in limited spaces. Through this project, industrial-scale seabass production will begin in Bangladesh for the first time."

How RAS technology works

Recirculating aquaculture system, or RAS, is a fully controlled indoor fish farming method where water quality, temperature, oxygen, salinity and waste management are managed through technology. The same water is treated and reused repeatedly, reducing water use and lowering the risk of disease compared to conventional systems.

Under the project, the entire production chain will be established, including broodstock management, hatchery and nursery facilities. The target weight for each hilsa fish has been set at between 1.2 and 1.5 kilograms.

Once fully operational, the facility aims to produce around 2,000 tonnes of hilsa fish per year, a large share of which is intended for export.

Can hilsa be farmed?

Hilsa is a migratory fish, and for decades it was considered unsuitable for farming. In recent years, however, research trials on raising hilsa in controlled environments have begun in Bangladesh, India and Myanmar.

Large-scale commercial production remains rare, making the PRAN-RFL–Assentoft initiative unusual on a global scale.

Dr Amirul Islam, a senior scientist at the Bangladesh Fisheries Research Institute (BFRI), told The Business Standard that hilsa farming is scientifically very challenging.

"The biggest challenge is controlling the hilsa's life cycle and breeding behaviour," he said. "There is no successful record of hilsa farming so far."

If successful, such projects could reduce pressure on natural river systems and open up new export opportunities, he added.

Danish expertise and local ambition

Assentoft Aqua Limited is internationally known for its work with RAS technology. Its associate company, Mariscco ApS, has been providing technical support for fish farming projects in Bangladesh and other countries since 2016, including hatchery design, broodstock management and full RAS solutions.

Dr Jens Ole Olesen, business development director of Assentoft Aqua, said the company was ready to implement an RAS-based fish farming project in Bangladesh with financing guaranteed by the Danish government.

"We are optimistic about our partnership with PRAN-RFL Group," he said.

PRAN-RFL Group is one of Bangladesh's largest agro and food processing companies, with a strong presence in food, agriculture, dairy, beverages and export-oriented products.

Through this new fisheries venture, the group aims to enter the production and export of high-value marine fish, adding a new chapter to its expanding portfolio, according to the group's managing director, Eleash Mridha.

Finance Adviser Dr Salehuddin Ahmed today said that a comprehensive reform of the country's banking sector is unavoidable and critically important for safeguarding macroeconomic stability, restoring discipline in financial institutions, and ensuring sustainable growth.

The Finance Adviser said this while addressing the MTB-FE Roundtable as the chief guest on 'Banking Sector Reforms' held at a hotel in the capital today.

The Adviser said that most banking-related issues primarily fall under the mandate of Bangladesh Bank, although close coordination with the Ministry of Finance remains essential. He acknowledged that the sector is facing long-standing structural and governance challenges which have accumulated over the last decade and a half.

"These problems didn't arise overnight, and they can't be fixed within 14 or 16 months," he said, adding that institutional decay, weak enforcement of laws, erosion of compliance culture, and misuse of discretionary authority have severely affected the sector.

Correcting these weaknesses, he stressed, requires time, careful planning, and strong institutional reforms rather than abrupt or coercive actions.

The Adviser said that despite domestic criticism, Bangladesh's image in the international arena remains largely positive. Development partners and global stakeholders, he noted, generally view the country as having a manageable economy, although they acknowledge that reforming the banking and financial sectors is a difficult but necessary task.

Referring to recent legislative initiatives, he said the government has already taken steps to strengthen the legal framework governing the financial sector.

Amendments to laws related to the Negotiable Instruments Act and the House Building Finance Corporation Act have been passed, while work on strengthening anti-money laundering legislation and improving the effectiveness of financial courts is ongoing.

He pointed out that weak prudential norms, non-compliance with regulations, ineffective supervision, and excessive influence of bank owners over management have been among the key factors behind the sector's fragility.

In many cases, he said, banks were not run according to accepted norms of corporate governance, which undermined transparency and accountability.

Highlighting the role of audits and oversight, the Adviser cited irregularities in audit practices and stressed the need for greater responsibility and professionalism among auditors and regulatory bodies.

He said accountability must be enforced across all institutions to prevent financial misconduct and protect public interest.

On the issue of central bank autonomy, the Adviser said Bangladesh Bank requires adequate operational and administrative independence to perform its duties effectively. However, he emphasised that such autonomy must be balanced with accountability within the sovereign framework of the state.

The Adviser underlined the importance of appointing competent and credible leadership in the banking sector, particularly at the central bank. Transparent and merit-based selection processes, he said, are crucial to ensuring effective supervision and sound policy implementation.

Concluding his remarks, the Adviser said banking sector reform is not optional but a national necessity.

Even if all reforms cannot be completed within the current timeframe, he added that the government is committed to laying a solid foundation so that future administrations can continue the reform process without disruption.

"The banking sector is the backbone of the economy. Strengthening it is essential to protect depositors, maintain financial stability, and support long-term development," he said.

Silver prices vaulted above $100 an ounce on Friday, extending a remarkable 2025 surge into the new year as retail investor and momentum-driven buying added to a prolonged spell of tightness in physical markets for the precious and industrial metal.

Hopping onto the coat-tails of far more expensive gold, technical analysts who study charts of past price moves to predict future movement said the rapid nature of silver's gains had positioned it for a major correction.

"Silver is in the midst of a self-propelled frenzy and with plenty of geopolitical risk to give gold added buoyancy, silver is benefiting, even now, from its lower unit price," said StoneX analyst Rhona O'Connell.

"Everyone, it seems, wants to be involved but it is also flashing amber wealth warnings," she added. "As and when cracks start to appear they could easily become chasms. Buckle up."

Spot prices for silver, used in jewellery, electronics, solar panels, as well as an investment, were last up 5.1% at $101 per troy ounce on Friday.

The price has gained 40% since the beginning of 2026 after rallying by 147% in 2025. Gold hit a record high of $4,988 per ounce on Friday.

BofA strategist Michael Widmer estimates that a fundamentally justified silver price is around $60 with demand from solar panel producers probably having peaked in 2025 and overall industrial demand under pressure from record-high prices.

For the first time in 14 years, it will take just 50 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold as of Friday, down from 105 ounces in April.

This ratio, which traders and analysts use as a gauge for future direction, means that silver's outperformance over gold has become stretched.

Investment demand

Silver's gain in 2025 was the largest yearly growth in LSEG data going back to 1983.

The market's performance in 2025 was underpinned by robust investment demand for all precious metals and an extended period of thin liquidity in the benchmark London silver market as worries about US tariffs prompted massive inflows to US stocks.

Several waves of active retail buying through purchases of small bars and coins as well as inflows into physically backed silver exchange-traded funds have added to buying since October, according to analysts.

Almost 20% of a total 1.0-billion-ounce silver supply comes annually from the recycling sector, with activity heightened due to record prices.

However, inventories have not been rebuilding quickly with a shortage of high-grade refining capacity limiting the speed at which silver scrap material can be returned to the market, leading precious metals consultancy Metals Focus said.

The availability of the stocks in the market and secondary supply have become more crucial after five consecutive years of structural deficit, set to persist in 2026.

These deficits, outflows to the US and inflows to the ETFs saw the amount of metal which can be quickly mobilised in periods of high demand in London commercial vaults dwindle to a record low of 136 million ounces by end-September, Metals Focus estimates.

By end-2025, stocks had recovered to nearly 200 million ounces helping to drive down lease rates in London from their October spike, but remained far below the roughly 360 million ounces available in London in the peak of the Reddit-driven rally in early 2021.

What now?

Analysts expect outflows from US stocks to speed up and boost liquidity in the traditional markets as Washington refrained from imposing any tariffs when announcing the results of its critical metals review in mid-January.

After peaking at 532 million ounces on 3 October, COMEX inventories have fallen by 114 million ounces to 418 million ounces, their lowest level since March, as the metal worth about $11 billion left the inventories.

To reach pre-Trump-election levels, COMEX stocks would need to see further outflows of about 113 million ounces, equal to about 11% of total annual silver supply.

"Profit taking following the frenzied nature of the investor-driven rally since late November is likely sooner rather than later, particularly in view of ongoing physical market easing," said BNP Paribas senior commodities strategist David Wilson.