The US imposed 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods on Saturday after the two longstanding allies failed to reach a trade deal, with each side accusing the other of derailing days of talks.

The tariffs that came into effect just after midnight (0400 GMT) on some $20 billion of Canadian goods - things like wooden ice hockey sticks that are rarely used anymore - are far from an economic game-changer for the largest US trading partner after Mexico. That represents just over 5% of Canada's exports to the US.

But the new tariffs mark an increase in tensions between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney, and will likely make broader talks to renew the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement more difficult.

Carney said he had suspended trade negotiations and Canada would retaliate "dollar for dollar" on the new tariffs.

"I have decided to suspend trade negotiations with the US and have directed Canada's negotiators to return to Ottawa," Carney said in a statement.

"They (negotiators) have worked hard, in good faith, to defend the interests of Canadians throughout these negotiations up until the very last minute," he said. "However, last-minute changes in the US proposed terms were unfair, uneconomic, and called into question the reliability of any deal."

Carney, the only person to ever run the central banks of two major economies, was elected last year on promises to stand up to Trump, and remains broadly popular. Polls show most Canadians oppose making any concessions to Trump.

Hours earlier, the two sides had seemed close to an agreement that sources said would have lowered tariffs on steel, aluminium and autos and potentially brought American alcohol back to Canadian liquor stores.

"Tonight, Canada declined to finalize the trade deal under the terms agreed earlier this week," US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said during a White House briefing.

"This is a missed opportunity for Canada to partner with the United States, which is the fastest-growing economy in the G7," Greer said.

A senior Trump administration official said the US offer would have put Canada in the best tariff position of any major exporter to the US, but that Canada had sought additional concessions, especially on steel, aluminium, autos and softwood lumber.

No additional talks are scheduled as the US implements the new duties, the official said.

Trump last month threatened to impose a raft of duties on a range of Canadian imports including wine, furniture, dairy products, cement, clothing, fishing rods, hockey equipment.

The tariffs, which do not qualify for preferential treatment under the US-Mexico-Canada free-trade agreement, open up some already vulnerable sectors to potential severe damage that could lead to job losses and business closures, trade experts have said.

The decision by the US administration followed three days of talks in Washington between Canada's minister for trade with the US, Dominic LeBlanc, and Greer.

The new duties add to existing US tariffs on steel, lumber and autos which have taken a major hit in the last 18 months, although the malaise has been largely contained within these sectors.

For the first time in nearly a decade, India recently decided to allow imports of duty-free raw sugar until October in order to contain surging prices and ensure adequate availability in the domestic market.

The government argued that duty-free imports of sugar have been allowed as a "precautionary" measure to guard against a possible further rise in prices in view of the coming festival season, when demand would go up considerably.

Sugar prices in India, the world's largest consumer of the sweetener, increased in a month from Rs 48.18 per kg on 20 July to Rs 55.70 per kg on 20 August, the government acknowledged.

The government has rejected criticism that the increase in sugar prices is due to diversion of sugar for ethanol production.

In fact, the share of sugar diverted for ethanol has declined from around 12% in 2022-23 to around 9% in 2025-26. Moreover, nearly three-fourths of the ethanol produced in the country now comes from grains, particularly maize, said the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food & Public Distribution on Friday.

India normally produces around 320-340 lakh tonnes of sugar annually, against domestic consumption of around 280-290 lakh tonnes. When there is surplus production, excess stocks block the funds of sugar mills and can delay payments to sugarcane farmers, it pointed out.

Diversion of excess sugar towards ethanol has helped address this structural problem and improved the financial health of sugar mills, maintained the Ministry.

As on 20 August 2026, 97% of sugarcane dues for the 2025-26 sugar season had already been paid to farmers, it said, adding that the improved financial position of sugar mills had reduced their dependence on government subsidies.

While around Rs 14,600 crore of subsidy was provided to the sugar industry between 2014 and 2021, no such subsidy has been announced since 2021-22.

The Ministry said the increase in sugar prices was due to a combination of factors, including lower-than-expected domestic production, increased demand ahead of the festive season, weather-related damage to the sugarcane crop, tightening global sugar supplies and speculation and hoarding by some sections of the industry.

India's sugar production during the current season is expected to be around 306 lakh tonnes, compared with the initial estimate of around 343 lakh tonnes by key sugarcane-growing states, according to official figures.

Production has been affected by disease in sugarcane as well as waterlogging caused by excess rainfall.

But despite the lower-than-estimated production, adequate sugar stocks are available in the country to meet domestic demand until the new crushing season begins in October.

The government also points out that international sugar prices have risen sharply from $474 per tonne on 30 June to $552 per tonne on 20 August, an increase of over 16% in less than two months.

Speculation and hoarding by some sugar mills and traders have also contributed to the recent price increase. Several steps have therefore been taken, including the imposition of a stock limit of 400 tonnes on sugar dealers across the country from 1 August to 30 November.

States and sugar mills have been advised to begin crushing from 15 October, and this is expected to raise October sugar production from the usual 3 lakh tonnes to more than 10 lakh tonnes, the Ministry says.

The US imposed 50 percent tariffs on some Canadian goods on Saturday after the two longstanding allies failed to reach a trade deal, with each side accusing the other of derailing days of talks.

The tariffs that came into effect just after midnight (0400 GMT) on some $20 billion of Canadian goods - things like wooden ice hockey sticks that are rarely used anymore - are far from an economic game-changer for the largest US trading partner after Mexico.

That represents just over 5 percent of Canada’s exports to the US.

But the new tariffs mark an increase in tensions between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney, and will likely make broader talks to renew the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement more difficult. Carney said he had suspended trade negotiations and Canada would retaliate “dollar for dollar” on the new tariffs.

“I have decided to suspend trade negotiations with the US and have directed Canada’s negotiators to return to Ottawa,” Carney said in a statement.

“They (negotiators) have worked hard, in good faith, to defend the interests of Canadians throughout these negotiations up until the very last minute,” he said.

“However, last-minute changes in the US proposed terms were unfair, uneconomic, and called into question the reliability of any deal.”

Carney, the only person to ever run the central banks of two major economies, was elected last year on promises to stand up to Trump, and remains broadly popular. Polls show most Canadians oppose making any concessions to Trump.

Hours earlier, the two sides had seemed close to an agreement that sources said would have lowered tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos and potentially brought American alcohol back to Canadian liquor stores.

“Tonight, Canada declined to finalize the trade deal under the terms agreed earlier this week,” US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said during a White House briefing.

“This is a missed opportunity for Canada to partner with the United States, which is the fastest-growing economy in the G7,” Greer said.

A senior Trump administration official said the US offer would have put Canada in the best tariff position of any major exporter to the US, but that Canada had sought additional concessions, especially on steel, aluminum, autos and softwood lumber.

No additional talks are scheduled as the US implements the new duties, the official said.

Trump last month threatened to impose a raft of duties on a range of Canadian imports including wine, furniture, dairy products, cement, clothing, fishing rods, hockey equipment.

The tariffs, which do not qualify for preferential treatment under the US-Mexico-Canada free-trade agreement, open up some already vulnerable sectors to potential severe damage that could lead to job losses and business closures, trade experts have said.

The decision by the US administration followed three days of talks in Washington between Canada’s minister for trade with the US, Dominic LeBlanc, and Greer.

The new duties add to existing US tariffs on steel, lumber and autos which have taken major hit in the last 18 months, although the malaise has been largely contained within these sectors.

Gold climbed to a more than three-month high on Friday, on track for its third straight weekly gain, aided by a break above key technical levels as the US Treasury’s buyback support plan dragged on the dollar.

Spot gold climbed 2.4 percent to $4,623.94 per ounce by 1:41 p.m. EDT (1741 GMT), earlier touching $4,631.99 — its highest since May 15. US gold futures settled 2.4 percent higher at $4,680.60.

Prices have gained over 5 percent so far this week, including their biggest one-day rise since early February registered on Wednesday.

The metal is also trading above all key moving averages, having broken above the closely watched 200-day moving average of around $4,513, a move technical analysts typically view as bullish.

“A big factor, of course, is technical... next step is $4,700 if this momentum continues, but also I think it’s been very much driven by a drop in the US dollar,” said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities.

The dollar languished near its lowest level since mid-May as investors questioned whether the US Treasury’s efforts to calm the bond markets might end up undermining confidence in the currency.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday the government could expand Treasury buybacks further, a day after the department unveiled plans to double buybacks of longer-dated securities.

“Gold call option demand has risen sharply amid renewed demand for global macro-policy hedges, creating a mechanical price amplifier to both the upside and downside,” Goldman Sachs said in a note.

Goldman noted that weaker market conviction around US rate hikes following the Fed’s July pause and softer economic data have helped revive speculative interest in COMEX gold and demand for rate-sensitive gold ETFs, with rising and elevated call option demand likely amplifying the move.

On physical demand, the recent rally in prices deterred retail buyers in India, while demand in top consumer China held steady.

Poland’s central bank slowed gold buying to 7.8 tonnes in July, data showed on Friday.

Exceptionally low river levels in Europe hit hard by drought and record heat have plunged transporters into turmoil this summer, driving up costs that everyday consumers could end up bearing.

Major rivers on the planet’s fastest-warming continent, including the Rhine and Danube, have sustained water shortages that scientists directly link to climate change.

The situation is especially critical in Germany on the Rhine, the core of the European inland waterway transport network.

“The situation is unprecedented,” a spokesperson for Maersk, the Danish shipping giant, told AFP. “Today, most of the inland ports along the Rhine cannot be reached by barge anymore.”

Clecat, a European association that represents freight forwarders, agreed that the “most acute disruption has been on the Rhine”.

It said that at Kaub, a critical bottleneck for traffic on the river, the water gauge fell to around six centimetres (2.4 inches) on August 14, below the previous record low of 25 centimetres in 2018.

“The effects are being felt along the major industrial corridor from Rotterdam”, Clecat said, adding that “Conditions are also severe on parts of the Danube, particularly in Serbia, Hungary and Romania”.

One workaround for logistics operators is to move as much cargo off rivers as they can to trains or trucks.

“The aim is to... keep the distances travelled on the Rhine as short as possible,” transport company Contargo told AFP.

But the opportunities for rail and road transport are limited.

Jean-Laurent Kistler, development director at the French waterways authority (VNF) in Strasbourg, where the Rhine forms the border with Germany, estimated that transporting the load of a single barge required “100 to 200 trucks”.

But many products transported in bulk -- such as chemicals, hydrocarbons, construction materials or grain -- are not easily transferred to containers. VNF Strasbourg says the load carried by ships on the Rhine fell from an average of 1,500 tonnes to just 400 tonnes in August.

The Clecat association noted the low river levels had already resulted in “higher transport costs, delays, postponed shipments and reduced production flexibility”.

“The ships have to sail with lighter loads than usual to have less draught,” said Alexandre Charpentier, transport specialist at the consulting firm Roland Berger, referring to how deep a vessel sits in the water.

“With fixed costs remaining the same, this leads to very significant unit cost increases,” he said. Operators pass on the resulting costs by applying low-water surcharges, which they introduce progressively if river levels keep falling.

These costs have reached more than 1,000 euros ($1,170) in surcharges per container at the most strained points, such as Kaub or Cologne, according to Contargo’s rates.

“It can quickly double for container freight” and “be even more drastic for bulk cargo”, said Pierre Cossart, director of Sogestran Logistics.

COSTS PASSED ON?

According to Clecat, “whether higher logistics costs translate materially into consumer prices depends on the duration of the disruption, the commodity and companies’ ability to absorb or pass on costs”.

But it noted that “For many bulk commodities, transport is an important component of the delivered price, so sustained increases will ultimately be felt further down the supply chain.”

Charpentier said it was too early to forecast eventual price increases for consumers, but warned that the extra costs were difficult to absorb in full.

With drought episodes only expected to increase, operators are banking on better-suited vessels and greater intermodality, or the added use of trains and trucks.

But resilience also comes from water management, according to the VNF’s Kistler.

While France has built a series of reservoirs and diversion channels along its portion of the Rhine to manage the flows, on the German side the river runs freely and is highly dependent on rainfall.

“We went from 10 ships a day to 25 (on Wednesday), 14 of them loaded,” said Kistler, adding that it was “still far from the optimal load”.

The Treasury's latest daily cash and debt balances statement showed total public debt outstanding at $40.047 trillion on ‌Tuesday, a total that includes Treasury securities held by the public of $32.266 trillion and intra-governmental debt holdings of $7.782 trillion.

The federal government's IOU has now more than doubled in less than a decade, from $19.95 trillion when President Donald Trump was sworn in for the first time in January 2017. Roughly one-third of that increase occurred during two years of frantic government borrowing to fund the Covid-19 pandemic responses undertaken by Trump and former President Joe Biden, while the fiscal policy choices of both presidents combined with long-running tax-and-spending imbalances account for the rest.

Budget watchdog groups have anticipated crossing the threshold ​for weeks and issued stark warnings that a full-blown debt crisis could erupt unless lawmakers confront an unsustainable fiscal outlook and raise taxes, cut spending or both.

"Forty trillion dollars of debt doesn’t exist solely on the government’s ledgers; ​it is felt throughout the economy and finds its way to the pocketbooks of people one way or another," said Maya MacGuineas, president of the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible ⁠Federal Budget.

"The more we borrow, the more we exacerbate inflation, squeeze out other priorities in the budget, and leave ourselves vulnerable to emergencies at home and turmoil abroad," MacGuineas said in a statement just after the Treasury data was released.

She said the $40 ​trillion figure was reached less than five months after debt reached $39 trillion, and has quadrupled in less than 20 years after taking until 1981 to reach $1 trillion for the first time.

"It is staggering how predictable the fiscal decline of a global power ​can become," MacGuineas added.

Global US creditors may already be growing wary, with demand from foreign investors holding nearly one third of Treasuries declining over the past year.

Days after a $25-billion auction of 30-year Treasury bonds went off at the highest yield since 2021, yields on so-called long bonds on Tuesday hit their highest levels in nearly two decades as investors demanded greater compensation in the face of hefty US government bond issuance. Yields move inversely to bond prices.

On Wednesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent took a bold step to push long bond yields back down, announcing a doubling of buyback sizes ​for 10- to 30-year Treasuries to at least $4 billion per operation.

Higher Treasury yields at the longer end tend to push up interest rates for mortgages, car and commercial loans. With the mountain of debt showing no signs of abating, Trump on Wednesday ​repeated his frequent demand for lower rates.

Asked at the White House whether Americans should worry about bond market volatility, Trump said: "I don't think so at all. I think we have a very powerful country, and we're powering through these ridiculous interest rates — they're ridiculous. Look, ‌when our country ⁠is strong, interest rates should go down."

PANDEMIC SPENDING, AND THEN SOME

The Treasury last week reported the fourth-highest monthly deficit in US history — $432 billion for July — as tariff refunds turned customs receipts negative for the third month in a row and outlays for Social Security and Medicare benefits for seniors continued to grow. The deficit for the first 10 months of fiscal 2026 has already exceeded the total gap for all of fiscal 2025 with two months to go in the current fiscal year.

Trump has largely ignored the dwindling number of fiscal hawks in his Republican Party, championing heavy spending across his two terms. Public debt rose by $7.8 trillion during Trump's first term, with more than half of it accumulating during the pandemic response over his last nine months in ​office.

Since Trump took office a second time in January 2025, the ​US debt load has increased by $3.8 trillion, for total ⁠growth of $11.6 trillion across his two terms so far.

Public debt increased by $8.4 trillion during Biden's term, also marked by heavy Covid-19 recovery spending, but driven as well by big-ticket outlays for infrastructure investment, clean energy subsidies and other priorities championed by his Democratic Party.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the policy choices of Trump and Biden have increased the federal ​debt trajectory beyond what would have accumulated under the existing spending statutes when each took office.

For instance, Trump's landmark second-term legislative package — the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — will ​add another $4.7 trillion in debt, according ⁠to the Congressional Budget Office, the nonpartisan bookkeeper for federal lawmakers.

Trump has branded his second presidency as one focused on cost-cutting, marked by early federal agency job cuts ordered by the non-governmental Department of Government Efficiency. But much of his spending reductions have targeted so-called "discretionary" programmes, the smallest portion of the federal budget. The US spends roughly $7 trillion annually, and 60 per cent of it is earmarked for so-called "mandatory" programmes, including payments for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and veterans' care, that generally grow to keep pace with living costs.

Another $1.1 trillion pays the interest ⁠on US borrowing, ​the cost of which rises as the debt pile grows and as interest rates climb. The 2025 fiscal-year budget marked the first time debt service ​costs exceeded Pentagon funding. In the first 10 months of the 2026 fiscal year, interest costs have eclipsed Medicare healthcare outlays to become the second-largest line item in the federal budget, behind the Social Security pension system.

The US is spending more to fund the retirement and healthcare costs of the "baby boom" ​generation, straining the trust funds behind Social Security and Medicare even as payroll and income tax revenues fall short of covering federal costs.

As Europe tightens its packaging rules, Vietnamese exporters are facing a new reality: what wraps a product may matter almost as much as what is inside. The European Union’s new requirements are forcing businesses to rethink packaging while opening the door to a more circular industry.

The EU’s Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) entered its general application phase on August 12, covering packaging placed on the EU market regardless of its material or country of origin.

For Vietnamese exporters, the rules mean that packaging can no longer simply be a protective layer around a product. Its design, recyclability, recycled content and chemical safety are increasingly be-coming part of the conditions for selling products in the bloc.

The impact could extend across Vietnam’s major export sectors, including food, seafood, coffee, cashew, textiles, footwear, electronics, cosmetics, wood and other consumer goods.

“The new regulation affects the entire production and export chain, from design for recycling and the use of recycled materials to traceability and the control of substances of concern,” said Nguyễn Thi, a lecturer at the Hà Nội University of Natural Resources and Environment.

The challenge comes as trade with the EU continues to expand. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Vietnamese exports to the bloc exceeded US$56 billion in 2025, up 8.6 percent from a year earlier, while exports reached $25.78 billion in the first five months of 2026, up 13.3 percent year on year.

The PPWR introduces requirements covering food-contact packaging, sales packaging, grouped pack-aging and transport packaging.

From August 12, all packaging must comply with new limits on substances of concern, with particular attention to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances in food-contact packaging.

This is particularly relevant to Vietnamese seafood exporters, which use food-contact packaging such as plastic trays, wrapping films and plastic bags. Companies will need to ensure that information on such content is available in the technical documentation for their packaging.

The PPWR establishes a phased transition, with technical requirements for recyclability and recycled content becoming progressively stricter over the coming years. From 2030, all packaging placed on the EU market will have to be designed to be recyclable.

Food-contact plastic packaging will have to contain at least 30 percent recycled plastic where PET is the main component and 10 percent for packaging made from other plastics such as polypropylene and polyethylene. The requirements will rise to 65 percent and 25 percent by 2040, respectively.

The PPWR also seeks to reduce unnecessary packaging. By 2030, manufacturers and importers will have to ensure that the weight and volume of packaging are reduced to the minimum necessary to perform its intended function. For grouped, transport and e-commerce packaging, the proportion of empty space will be limited to 50 percent.

Labelling requirements will also be introduced according to the PPWR’s implementation timetable, with harmonised information on packaging materials intended to help consumers sort waste.

The PPWR highlights a growing trend: to enter the EU market, goods will increasingly be judged not only by the product itself but by its entire life cycle, according to Thi.

The EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement has given many Vietnamese products tariff advantages, but as tariffs fall, the bloc is steadily raising standards on environmental protection, emissions, traceability, the circular economy and supply chain responsibility.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade has also said these green requirements are increasingly becoming an important condition for Vietnamese goods to maintain their foothold in the EU market as well as global markets.

Yet experts say the PPWR should not be viewed simply as another trade barrier but a wider shift in global trade in which environmental requirements are increasingly becoming conditions for market access.

Experts say that Vietnamese companies that invest early in recyclable packaging, recycled materials, traceability and circular production could gain an advantage not only in Europe but also in other devel-oped markets with similar environmental requirements.

Meeting these standards could create opportunities for businesses to expand into other markets, said Sita Zimpel, a project director at GIZ Vietnam, adding that this could turn compliance spending into longer-term investment in production efficiency and product differentiation.

The changes could also reshape Vietnam’s packaging industry, forcing it to move towards a more circu-lar model. Instead of producing packaging, using it and sending it to waste streams, companies would need to build stronger links among packaging manufacturers, waste collectors, recyclers and users of recycled materials.

Annie Trần, senior manager at Informa Markets Vietnam, said the packaging industry was at an im-portant transition point towards a more circular model as environmental requirements increasingly became mandatory conditions in international trade.

Businesses should regard changes in materials, standardised design, greater recycling and circular sup-ply chains as long-term development strategies rather than merely a way to comply with regulations, she said.

She stressed that this could create opportunities for investment in food-grade recycled plastics, recy-cling technology, testing and certification, waste sorting and collection, and new packaging materials.

However, Nguyễn Ngọc Sang, chairman of the Vietnam Packaging Association, said domestic packaging producers were of small and medium sizes with limited capacity for investment.

Policymaking should therefore provide an appropriate roadmap, particularly as Vietnam still lacks spe-cialised research centres for the packaging industry, he said.

One of the biggest challenges for Vietnamese companies is likely to be the supply of recycled material that meets EU standards.

According to Thi, Vietnam does not yet have a fully developed system of standards for food-grade re-cycled plastic, while domestic testing and certification capacity remains limited.

Food-grade recycled PET, or rPET, is particularly challenging because recycled material must meet stringent safety requirements before it can be used in packaging that comes into direct contact with food.

The problem starts with the quality of collected waste. Trần Đức, head of external affairs at Suntory PepsiCo Vietnam, said the quality of recovered plastic remained unstable because waste collection relies heavily on informal collectors.

For PET bottles, impurities can account for 40-70 percent of recovered material depending on the batch, making bottle-to-bottle recycling more difficult and increasing production costs compared with virgin plastic.

That created a potential mismatch between the EU’s growing demand for recycled materials and Vi-etnam’s ability to supply them at the required quality and cost, he said.

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers, packaging commonly used in seafood exports, including plastic bags, trays, boxes, cardboard cartons, plastic pallets and wrapping films, falls within the scope of the PPWR.

Companies will therefore need to review their packaging systems, prepare documentation demon-strating compliance and keep pace with technical guidance from the EU.

Vietnam is developing its own packaging regulatory framework through extended producer responsi-bility (EPR), recycling obligations, financial contributions for waste treatment and measures to reduce difficult-to-degrade plastic products.

Nguyễn Văn Phan from EPR Vietnam Office under the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, said the framework would not only improve the implementation of EPR in Vietnam but also help business-es gradually meet increasingly stringent requirements in international markets, particularly the EU’s new rules on packaging and the circular economy.

Experts say faster development of standards for food-grade recycled plastic, testing capacity, waste collection and sorting infrastructure and a reliable market for recycled materials will be critical to help-ing Vietnamese companies adapt.

The broader challenge is whether Vietnam can build the industrial ecosystem needed to compete in a global economy where sustainability is becoming a condition of market access.

For exporters, early preparation will be equally important.

Companies would need to audit their existing packaging, identify materials and chemicals that may pose compliance risks, work with suppliers to develop recyclable alternatives and prepare technical documentation to ensure compliance, Thi said.

Oil prices hit a three-week high on Wednesday as uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing supply disruptions supported the market. Brent crude futures climbed 45 cents, or 0.49 percent, to $91.47 by 0754 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 45 cents, or 0.53 percent, to $85.39 a barrel.

Brent crude hit its highest level since July 30 and WTI reached its highest since July 31.

“Confidence in safe passage remains low, with shipping volumes still running well below normal levels. That persistent uncertainty continues to keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in the oil price,” KCM chief market analyst Tim Waterer said.

US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday no talks were taking place with Iran and that the Strait of Hormuz was open, contradicting Iran, which said the waterway remained shut.

A temporary ceasefire agreement expired on Monday and a senior Iranian official told Reuters that his country was moving to a due to the diplomatic stalemate, though there were no reports of strikes by either side on Tuesday.

SHIPPING UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS IN HORMUZ

The Strait of Hormuz carried about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies before the US-Israeli war on Iran began at the end of February. Its disruption remains a central concern for energy markets.

“Commercial shipping through Hormuz continues to face near full disruption while disagreements persist over the conditions governing maritime traffic,” said Ahmad Assiri, research strategist at brokerage Pepperstone.

Shipping through Hormuz slowed, data showed on Wednesday, as most shipowners avoided the waterway because of the uncertainty.

Shipping through Hormuz slowed, data showed on Wednesday, as most shipowners avoided the waterway because of the uncertainty

Iraq’s cabinet approved mechanisms for exporting Iraqi crude through specialised international and local companies and via multiple export outlets, the government said on Tuesday.

The contracts under the new mechanism will run for three months starting September 1, according to a statement issued after the cabinet meeting.

Brent’s move above $91 a barrel suggests traders are pricing in a higher risk premium, with prices potentially returning to three-digit levels, Assiri from Pepperstone added.

US crude oil and distillate inventories fell while gasoline stocks rose last week, market sources said, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute.

Official inventory numbers from the US Energy Information Administration are due at 10:30 a.m. ET (1430 GMT). Analysts polled by Reuters expect crude stocks to have fallen by about 600,000 barrels in the week ended August 14.

Gold rose as US Treasury yields eased on Wednesday, with investors awaiting minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting for fresh clues on its monetary policy outlook. Spot gold rose 0.6 percent to $4,359.58 per ounce by 0737 GMT, after falling nearly 2 percent in the previous session due to higher Treasury yields, while US gold futures slipped 0.2 percent to $4,413.40.

A global bond selloff on Tuesday saw long-term borrowing costs in major economies edge toward their highest levels in decades, pressuring the non-yielding precious metal.

Reduced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and rising fiscal budget concerns are positive factors for gold, said Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA.

The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s July meeting are scheduled for release at 1800 GMT.

Traders are pricing in a 67 percent probability of a Fed hold and a 33 percent chance of a rate hike next month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Bets for a hike have declined after a series of soft US economic data.

Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold.

“A sustained break above $4,390 could open the door (for gold) towards $4,505, while a break below $4,300 could expose $4,200 and $4,150,” said Lukman Otunuga, head of market research at FXTM.

On the geopolitical front, US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that no talks were taking place with Iran and insisted the Strait of Hormuz was open, contradicting Iran’s assertion that the critical waterway remained shut to shipping.

Oil prices gained for a fourth straight session.

Among other metals, spot silver slipped 0.1 percent to $63.22 per ounce, platinum gained 0.5 percent to $1,720.43, and palladium held steady at $1,290.55.

TD Securities said silver and platinum group metals were expected to benefit from a supportive macroeconomic backdrop in the second half of 2027, with easing inflation risks, a weaker US dollar and lower carry costs likely to drive a stronger price response than gold.

Samsung Electronics has raised prices for some advanced contract chipmaking services by up to 15 percent for new orders, two people familiar with the matter said, as demand for AI chips tightens capacity in a business long dominated by TSMC.

Demand from Chinese customers has been particularly strong, but Samsung has been unable to meet all orders because it must serve US customers and reserve part of its capacity to support its own chip production, said the sources, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they are discussing sensitive commercial matters.
Chinese customers are among those accepting the steepest price increase, one of the sources said, underscoring how US curbs on exports of advanced chipmaking equipment to China have increased local firms’ reliance on overseas foundries.The price hikes mark a turnaround for Samsung’s foundry business, which has been a loss maker since 2022, according to industry estimates.

The division has struggled to narrow the gap with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, even as Samsung reported record profits, driven by soaring prices for memory chips used in AI systems.

Samsung raised prices in July for chips made using its 4-nanometre process, known as SF4, the sources said.

Prices for SF4 customers in China and the US were increased 10 percent to 15 percent from the previous month, while customers in Taiwan, home to TSMC, saw increases of 5 percent to 10 percent, according to one of the sources.

Prices for wafers produced by its 5-nanometre SF5 process rose by 10 percent to 15 percent, while those for its older 8-nanometre technology rose by nearly 10 percent, according to the source.

Samsung declined to comment as the company does not provide details on operational matters.

Samsung produced 7 percent of global foundry revenue in the first quarter of 2026, compared with more than 70 percent for TSMC, according to research firm Counterpoint.

However, demand for AI chips has booked up much of TSMC’s leading-edge capacity.

Samsung expects advanced processes to account for more than half of foundry revenue this year, while AI and high-performance-computing applications would make up more than 30 percent, up from 15 percent to 20 percent in late 2025.

With TSMC’s production taken up, Samsung has more leverage to raise prices.

“As TSMC faces tight capacity and raises prices, customers are shifting to rivals such as Samsung and Intel, prompting Samsung to raise its prices as well,” said Lee Min-hee, a Seoul-based analyst at BNK Investment & Securities.

“If Samsung raises prices from here, its foundry business could potentially become profitable as early as next year, earlier than previously expected,” Lee said.

Samsung’s SF4 production line at its Pyeongtaek, South Korea, plant has been running at full capacity since late last year, said a person familiar with the company’s operations.

The line produces logic chips for customers including Qualcomm as well as base dies used in Samsung’s own multi-layer high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, the person said.

Samsung said in July it expects the foundry unit to return to profit in the near future, helped by higher factory utilization, better production yields and firmer pricing.

It also said then rising sales to major US and Chinese customers, along with demand for HBM base dies, should help lift foundry revenue by more than double-digit percentage points in the second half from a year earlier.

Improvements in production yields have also helped Samsung win customers. Tesla and Apple unveiled chip manufacturing deals with Samsung last year.
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Samsung also announced an AI chip production deal with Broadcom in July, while Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said in March that Samsung would manufacture its new AI inference processor.

Google is also in talks with Samsung to manufacture chips using SF4, said one of the two sources familiar with the price increases. Google did not respond to a request for comment.

The United Arab Emirates has said it is suspending all trade and financial dealings with Iran after reporting an Iranian missile attack directed at its ships.

The announcement comes after a period of relative calm in the UAE, with no Iranian missiles aimed at the country since May after it bore the brunt of attacks in the early weeks of the Middle East war.Abu Dhabi has however accused Tehran of repeatedly targeting its tankers at sea in recent weeks.

“In light of regional escalations... all trade, commercial exchanges, and financial transactions with Iran have been halted until further notice," said UAE foreign ministry communications director Afra Al Hameli.

The UAE is home to a sizeable Iranian community and has been a major trading partner for US-sanctioned Iran, at least before the war.

They share deep cultural and historical ties as neighbouring countries across the Gulf, with centuries-old links between coastal communities, trade routes and family networks.

Tuesday's announcement is the latest measure against Iran by the UAE after it recalled its ambassador early in the conflict and shut Iran-linked schools and a hospital.

At the height of the war in March, authorities ordered the closure of an Iranian state-linked hospital in Dubai, three employees at the facility told AFP, with schools and a community centre also ordered closed.

A UAE official told AFP at the time that "certain institutions directly linked to the Iranian regime and IRGC will be closed under targeted measures" after they were found to have violated UAE laws.

Abu Dhabi on Tuesday accused Iran of firing two ballistic missiles towards the country, the first such attack since May.

It later said the salvo was directed at shipping, but Tehran denied firing missiles at the UAE.

“UAE air defences detected two ballistic missiles launched from Iran towards the country, with the first falling outside the country's territorial waters, while the second fell within the territorial waters," the UAE ministry said in a statement posted to social media.

A second statement released later said the missiles "were targeting maritime navigation and fell into the sea".

Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei "categorically rejected the United Arab Emirates' claim that Iran had launched a missile towards that country", calling it harmful to regional trust and security efforts.

The first UAE statement came nearly two hours after a phone alert that warned residents of a "potential missile threat".

It was the first such alert since a false alarm in June and an alert in July for an attack that ultimately did not enter UAE territory.

Before that, the last missile warning came in early May.

However, tankers belonging to the UAE’s state-owned oil company ADNOC have been repeatedly targeted in the past few weeks.

When the Middle East war began on February 28, the UAE bore the brunt of Iran’s attacks, with nearly 3,000 missiles and drones directed at the country -- more than anywhere else in the region.

After a memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States came into effect in June, which has since collapsed, the UAE reported no attacks, unlike other Gulf states.

The US dollar held near multi-month lows against most major currencies on Tuesday as traders walked back expectations of near-term monetary tightening, although the imminent threat of an escalation in the Middle East war left sentiment fragile.

The euro eased away from two-month highs of $1.1614 it touched on Monday, last fetching $1.1571.

Sterling was at $1.3534, just shy of the three-month peak it hit in the previous session.

Data in the past few weeks have pointed to a softer US economy, including unexpected job losses last month and mild inflation readings, leading investors to scale back expectations of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve.

Traders expect a 35 percent chance of a rate increase at the Fed’s September meeting, compared with 52.2 percent a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

They are also no longer fully pricing in a hike by the end of the year.

Most economists polled by Reuters in the past week expect the Fed to keep its interest rate unchanged next month and through year-end, a view they have held for the past several months.

Analysts though remain cautious about where inflation may head, even as long-dated bond yields scale multi-decade peaks, especially with the critical Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively shut and the US-Iran conflict simmering.

“Inflation has been above target for most of the past five years, and whilst a high 2 percent annual pace may prove acceptable to the Fed, it leaves the inflation process with little to no breathing room in a world of constant supply shocks,” said Nohshad Shah, head of EMEA fixed income sales at Citadel Securities.

Iran said it would shift to a “fully offensive” military posture because efforts to negotiate a permanent end to the war have stalled, a senior Iranian official told Reuters as Washington ruled out extending their June ceasefire agreement.

The more than five-month long conflict has upended the global rates outlook and stoked inflationary concerns through most of the year.

US 30-year Treasury yields rose to their highest level since 2007 on Tuesday as stalled talks to end the US-Iran war and worries of an imminent escalation sent oil prices above $90 a barrel, fanning fears of inflation and jolting markets.

Rising concerns over fiscal spending amid increasing debt issuance are also weighing on the bond markets even as investors digest a recent run of soft US economic data that has led to traders scaling back rate hike expectations.
The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note rose 1.7 basis points to 4.739 percent.

The yield on the 30-year bond rose to 5.327 percent, hitting its highest level in 19 years.

The bond selloff also spread to Japan and Europe with Japan’s benchmark 10-year government bond yield rising to a 30-year peak.

Germany’s bund futures and French OAT futures dipped 0.2 percent.

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield touched its highest level since May 2011 on Monday, while France’s 10-year yields hit a 17-year high.

Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC, said competition for capital from AI hyperscalers, a rising US budget deficit and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s departure from transparency to an opaque policy stance, were all contributing to higher Treasury yields.

“Rising long US bond yields is a risk that investors must bear in mind going forward... bond investors are best placed to manage this risk by focusing more on shorter duration bonds,” Menon said.

The hyperscalers’ surge in borrowing, at a time when governments are still spending heavily, has been a leading factor pushing up yields, investors said, as buyers demand higher returns to keep purchasing the flood of bonds hitting markets.

CONCERNS ABOUT GROWING US DEBT

Investors are also worried about inflation risks, especially with the critical Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively shut and the talks to end the US-Iran conflict at an impasse.

Iran said it would shift to a “fully offensive” military posture because efforts to negotiate a permanent end to the war have stalled, a senior Iranian official told Reuters as Washington ruled out extending their June ceasefire agreement.

US stocks fell on Monday, with the Dow and S&P 500 each shedding roughly half a percent, and the Nasdaq dropping about a third of a percent.

Thierry Wizman, global FX & rates strategist at Macquarie Group, said the prospect that the two sides’ competing claims over the Strait would continue to prevent crude from flowing remained a best case scenario in the short-and medium term.

“The worst-case scenario is a trigger-happy resumption of kinetic fighting,” he said.

Two recent Treasury auctions also drew attention for their yields as the sale of 10-year notes cleared at a high yield of 4.683 percent, the highest in 19 years, while the 30-year bond auction stopped at 5.216 percent, a 25-year peak.

Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, said for much of the last 15 years, investors operated in a market where stable-to-falling interest rates consistently supported higher stock prices.

“However, last week’s Treasury auctions were a reminder that the landscape is shifting,” he said.

“When it comes to longer-dated Treasury issuance, investors are increasingly focused and concerned about the growing amount of US debt and America’s lack of fiscal discipline.”

The oil market is increasingly behaving as though disruptions to Middle East energy supplies are not a temporary shock but a new reality.

Nearly six months after war erupted between the US and Iran, hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough have faded.

An interim ceasefire agreed on June 17 has effectively collapsed, the 60-day negotiating period has expired, and neither Washington nor Tehran appears willing to compromise over the future of the Strait of Hormuz.

Instead, both sides are digging in.

Iran warned on Monday it would escalate tensions unless Washington fully implemented the interim peace deal within weeks. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that, if diplomacy failed, Tehran would launch a “timely and precise” attack to break the US naval blockade.

US President Donald Trump said on July 7 that the pact was “over.” He has since insisted Washington was moving closer to defeating Iran.

The stalemate is increasingly forcing traders to contend with restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil chokepoint, that could persist for months.

That shift in expectations helps explain why crude oil prices have stabilized around $90 a barrel. Crude has surrendered some of its panic premium since the early days of the conflict, but remains roughly 50 percent higher than at the start of the year.

The market may no longer fear an immediate collapse in supplies, but neither does it expect a swift return to normal.

MOUNTING PAIN

Behind the political rhetoric, the economic costs are mounting for both sides. Iran is under growing strain from the conflict and US blockade.

Inflation exceeded 80 percent in July from a year earlier, according to an ISNA report, while crude exports have fallen to 294,000 barrels per day (bpd) so far this month from 1.7 million bpd in 2025, according to analytics firm Kpler.

The US is also paying a price.

Trump has warned Americans to prepare for high fuel costs, an uncomfortable admission for a president who campaigned on lowering energy prices and now faces congressional elections in November.

The average price of gasoline stood at $4.06 per gallon on Monday, up 29 percent from a year ago, according to the American Automobile Association.

Yet while diplomats remain deadlocked, the oil market is adapting.

SMOKE AND MIRRORS

The biggest uncertainty is the scale of supply disruptions. Flows of crude and refined products through Hormuz, which averaged about 18 million bpd before the war, fell to 4.8 million bpd in July and have averaged around 2 million bpd so far in August amid Iranian attacks and a US blockade, according to Kpler.

Some of that lost volume has been offset by higher exports from the Fujairah terminal in the United Arab Emirates and from Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast.

Even those alternative routes, however, are under pressure after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis imposed a blockade on Saudi exports through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, at the Red Sea’s southern entrance.

Taken together, Middle East exports averaged 9.5 million bpd this month, less than half the 21 million bpd in 2025, according to Kpler.

But those figures may understate — or overstate — actual exports because more regional oil appears to be moving in the shadows.

Evidence is mounting that Gulf producers are relying more heavily on vessels that disable tracking systems while transiting Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.

The UAE, in particular, appears to have built a network of “dark tankers” that shuttle crude through Hormuz before transferring cargoes in the Gulf of Oman.

The result is an unusual situation in which traders know supplies have been disrupted but cannot determine by how much.

Indeed, UAE crude exports averaged 3.38 million bpd so far in August, compared with 3.2 million bpd in 2025.

Yet those volumes could come under pressure after Iran reportedly struck several tankers linked to Abu Dhabi National Oil Company during voyages through Hormuz.

How much oil is actually reaching consumers has therefore become one of the market’s biggest unknowns.

As long as the Hormuz impasse remains unresolved, uncertainty will hang over energy markets.

Other indicators suggest elevated oil prices could persist even if crude exports stabilize.

REFINING PRECIPICE

Refined fuel markets have become exceptionally tight.

Global refinery throughput in July was nearly 5 million bpd below year-earlier levels at 81 million bpd, according to the International Energy Agency, reflecting the loss of refining capacity in the Middle East and damage to Russian facilities from Ukrainian drone attacks.

The shortfall has been offset by a surge in US fuel exports, with American refineries running at or near record utilization rates (USOIRU=ECI).

That support may soon fade.

Seasonal maintenance ahead of winter and hurricane season threaten to curb operations along the US Gulf Coast.

Lower refining activity will hamper efforts to rebuild depleted fuel inventories, helping sustain high product prices and refining margins, which have climbed to record levels.

The inventory picture is particularly concerning.

Global observed oil stocks fell by 2.4 million bpd in the second quarter, their largest quarterly draw in at least a decade, according to the IEA.

US diesel inventories are at their lowest for this time of year in three decades, while gasoline stocks are at their weakest seasonal level since 2012.

Freight markets are sending a similar message.

Benchmark rates for very large crude carriers transporting oil from the Middle East to China have surged from around $300,000 per day in early July to $490,000, equivalent to $5 a barrel and nearly 10 times higher than at the start of the year, according to LSEG data.

Those rates reflect shipowners’ reluctance to enter conflict zones and growing demand for tankers to move oil and fuel from more distant suppliers such as the US and Brazil.

The longer the Hormuz impasse drags on, the less this looks like a temporary supply shock and the more it resembles a structural reshaping of global oil trade.

Markets are finding it harder to absorb a world of opaque supply flows, shrinking fuel inventories, strained refining capacity and no credible diplomatic path toward restoring trade through the Gulf.

Ultimately, that growing realization, rather than battlefield developments, may keep oil prices elevated well into next year.

The Strait of Hormuz will remain shut until the US meets the conditions ​of an interim deal signed with Iran in June, the top ‌Iranian negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said in comments published by state media today (18 August).

These conditions include ​the US lifting its blockade of Iranian ports, lifting ​oil sanctions, releasing Tehran's frozen assets, and ending threats and military ⁠operations on all fronts, Qalibaf told parliament.

The ​memorandum of understanding, clinched on 17 June, quickly ​unravelled over a dispute about control of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a fifth ​of global oil and liquefied natural gas ​flowed before the war.

US President Donald Trump said the ‌deal ⁠was "over" on 7 July and a week later Iran's foreign ministry declared it "suspended".

Under the MoU, Iran and the US had committed to ​negotiating a final ​deal — ⁠covering broader issues such as the fate of Iran's nuclear programme — in ​a maximum of 60 days, extendable ​by mutual ⁠consent.

A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that Iran would now shift to a "fully offensive" posture ⁠due ​to the stalled diplomatic ​efforts to secure a permanent end to the conflict.

China managed to add a small volume of crude oil to inventories in July, as weak refinery processing outweighed a sharp drop in imports.

China’s surplus crude for July amounted to 210,000 barrels per day (bpd) and came after the world’s biggest oil importer drew on stockpiles in both May and June amid supply constraints caused by the Iran conflict.

The return to a surplus in China’s crude availability in July comes as a surprise given the huge decline in imports, with seaborne arrivals of oil down more than 3 million bpd from levels prior to the conflict. This had seen China’s refiners draw on stockpiles by about 940,000 bpd in June and 500,000 bpd in May.

China does not disclose the volumes of crude flowing into or out of its strategic and commercial stockpiles, but an estimate can be made by deducting the amount of oil processed from the total crude available from imports and domestic output.

On this basis, crude oil imports of 8.41 million bpd and domestic output of 4.3 million bpd mean refiners had a total of 12.72 million bpd available.

China’s refiners processed 12.51 million bpd in July, according to official data released on Monday, down 15.8 percent from the same month last year and only marginally above the 12.47 million bpd from June.

Subtracting the July throughput from the total crude available leaves a surplus of about 210,000 bpd available for storage.

For the first seven months of the year China has added about 480,000 bpd to stockpiles after strong imports in the first quarter boosted the surplus of available crude.

What the numbers show is that China has not really had to tap its vast oil inventories, estimated to contain at least 1.2 billion barrels, despite dramatically cutting its crude imports since the start of the Iran war.

Since the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28 shipments of crude and refined products through the Strait of Hormuz have been constrained as Iran attacked vessels, partly as retaliation but also to gain leverage for any eventual peace settlement.

Just under 20 percent of the world’s crude oil passed through the narrow waterway prior to the war, and while the volumes getting through now are disputed, even the most optimistic figures from the US government still point to a current loss of about 5 million bpd from the Middle East from pre-conflict levels.

CHINA ADJUSTS

China’s imports of 8.41 million bpd in July were up from the decade-low of 7.12 million in June, but were still more than 3 million bpd below pre-war levels.

To compensate for the lower imports, China has cut refinery processing rates, but they are still at levels sufficient to meet domestic demand.

China has instead cut exports of refined products, with shipments of 4.65 million metric tons in July being only marginally higher than the 4.36 million tons in June.

For the first seven months of the year fuel exports dropped 13.1 percent to 28.25 million metric tons, according to customs data.

Beijing placed restrictions on fuel exports shortly after the start of the Iran war, a measure aimed at ensuring domestic supply, but also one that allowed China to dramatically cut crude imports without dipping too far into stockpiles.

Beijing is easing restrictions on fuel exports for a second month in August, a move that will allow refiners to capture the elevated margins in Asia for diesel and gasoline.

However, allowing more fuel exports does lead to the question as to whether China will seek to lift crude imports, a move that may lead to higher prices given the ongoing supply disruptions from the Middle East.

China’s seaborne crude imports are estimated at 7.0 million bpd in August by commodity analysts Kpler, slightly higher than the 6.98 million recorded for July.

It’s likely that the August figure will be revised higher as more cargoes are assessed, but it is still certain to be well below the average of 11.52 million bpd for seaborne arrivals in the three months to end February.

This means that for August China is continuing to act as the main force absorbing the restricted crude supply from the Middle East.

Nvidia will invest $1.5 billion in SoftBank-backed SB Energy and secure up to 8 ​gigawatts of AI computing capacity at an ‌Ohio campus being built by the data centre developer for OpenAI.

The deal is the latest where Nvidia is financing ​the ecosystem consuming its chips, a strategy ​that has helped fuel demand but also drawn scrutiny over the circular flows of ​funds from the chipmaker to its biggest customers.

Leading ​tech firms are increasingly tying together chips, power and data centre development as they race to secure the infrastructure ​needed for increasingly power-hungry AI models.

Chip giant Nvidia ​has secured land and power at Ohio’s PORTS-Pike Technology Campus ‌for an AI data centre that will use its graphics processors and networking gear, with an initial capacity of 4.25 GW.

SB Energy and SoftBank plan ​to build ​at least 10 GW of new power generation and invest $4.2 billion in Ohio ​grid infrastructure to support AI data centres.

Also ​backed by OpenAI, SB Energy develops large-scale power and data centre infrastructure projects. Founded in 2019, the company ​is building several data centre ​campuses to support rising demand tied to AI workloads.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed over the weekend, data showed on Monday, following attacks on tankers, while US-Iran talks to resolve the Middle East conflict stalled.

Five commodity vessels transited the strait on Saturday, with none registered for Sunday, shiptracking data from Kpler showed, versus 31 in the prior weekend.

Ships entering the strait on Saturday included an empty Very Large Crude Carrier with its Automatic Identification System switched off and an Indian-flagged Very Large Gas Carrier that used the Iranian route, Kpler data showed. A small tanker laden with Iranian fuel oil exited, it showed.

Shipping appeared to grind to a near standstill after the United Arab Emirates said three vessels operated by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company were attacked in transit last week. The United States said it could maintain a naval blockade of Iran indefinitely.

Some ships may pass through undetected with transponders off, but the figures are far from the more than 130 ships a day that traversed the Strait of Hormuz before the war launched by the US and Israel on Iran in February.

Washington must meet Iran’s conditions regarding the strait in order for shipping to resume, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said in an interview with local media on Saturday. The waterway handled a fifth of the world’s shipments of crude oil and liquefied natural gas before the war.

At the Bab el-Mandeb strait, where Yemeni Houthis declared a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia on July 20, Kpler data showed 49 weekend transits by commodity vessels, down from 55 in the prior week. There were no tracked Saudi oil shipments.

China’s retail sales and factory activity grew at a slower pace in July, official data showed on Monday, missing forecasts and highlighting persistent pressure on the world’s second-largest economy.

The country’s leaders have battled sluggish spending in the domestic economy since the end of the Covid-19 pandemic as it threatens overall growth, even as exports and certain high-tech sectors boom.

Beijing is targeting national growth of 4.5-5.0 percent this year, the lowest official goal in decades, but the economy fell short of that in the second quarter.

Data released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics showed retail sales grew 0.6 percent in July, well below the 1.5 percent forecast in a Bloomberg survey and down from the one percent increase seen in June.

The NBS figures also showed industrial production growth slowed to 4.5 percent on-year in July -- down from 5.3 percent the month before and short of the five percent forecast in the Bloomberg survey.

“In July, international geopolitical conflicts persisted and the global energy market was characterised by significant instability and uncertainty,” said NBS spokesman Fu Linghui at a news conference Monday.

Also noting the impact of severe weather last month in some Chinese regions, Fu said authorities had “actively addressed internal and external risks and challenges”.

In another sign of the challenges facing the government, fixed-asset investment in January-July fell 6.7 percent on year, the NBS said.

“The weak economic data indicate that the economy faces further downside risks that require more effective policy response,” wrote Zhiwei Zhang, President and Chief Economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

“The Politburo meeting in late July promised stronger fiscal spending but the implementation and transmission likely takes time,” said Zhang.

Many economists contend that China must shift towards a growth model driven more by household spending than the traditional engines of past decades, including real estate and infrastructure investment.

Trade data for July released this month showed exports and imports soaring, boosted by increased overseas demand for AI-related tech products.

The surge in exports has helped China’s vast manufacturing sector through the prolonged slump in domestic spending.

German companies slashed investments in the United States to a three-year low in the first half of 2026, as Trump administration policies fed uncertainty between the transatlantic trading partners.

First-half direct investments plunged by nearly two-thirds year-on-year to €4.3 billion ($5 billion), the lowest level since 2023, according to calculations by the German Economic Institute, or IW, seen by Reuters.

Compared with the same period in 2024, that ⁠represents a drop of nearly 80%, said the report, which is based on data from Germany's central bank.

"This continues the downward trend that has been evident since the start of Donald Trump's second term in January 2025," IW researcher Samina Sultan told Reuters.

Since returning to office, Trump has threatened most of the United States' international trading partners with import tariffs in an attempt to secure concessions favourable to Washington.

In a bid to avoid heavy duties on its exports to the US, for example, the European Union agreed a deal last year ⁠that included a $600 billion investment pledge.

In the five years before the COVID-19 pandemic, first-half investments by German companies in the US averaged €15.8 billion, the data showed, almost four times the 2026 level.

That said, the 2020 to 2023 period was shaped by the "exceptional circumstance" of the pandemic, Sultan said, ⁠with some years marked by net investment outflows.

The researchers also examined the composition of investment flows over 2025 and found that both direct-investment loans and reinvested earnings were exceptionally high, while equity capital in ⁠the narrower sense–the balance of new investments and liquidations–remained below average.

"Companies that are already active in the United States are therefore continuing to reinvest the profits ⁠they earn there in the country," Sultan said. "This suggests that the US remains an attractive market overall."

However, companies were hesitant to commit new capital, she said.