News - International Economy

Why US geopolitical uncertainty matters for the dollar
28 Jan 2026;
Source: The Daily Star

Donald Trump’s new brand of imperialism doesn’t sit well with the dollar. The greenback dropped against other major currencies as the US president talked about taking control of Greenland, and continued falling even after he backed down. The issue is less that geopolitical animosity can unseat the dollar as the world’s dominant currency, and more that it can erode a key benefit: financial surveillance and sanctions power.

Taken since the end of 2024, the dollar has fallen roughly 13 percent against the euro. Though often attributed to the “Liberation Day” tariffs Trump announced in April of last year, the slide began two months earlier, not long after US Vice President JD Vance signalled a retreat from Washington’s commitment to defend Europe. It suggests the market sees a link between a more US-centric foreign policy and the greenback’s global dominance: namely, if the world’s police force retreats, perhaps international use of its currency does too. A more extreme version of the same idea, which was raised by a controversial Deutsche Bank research note during the Greenland crisis, is that Europe would dump some of its $14 trillion of US financial assets.

Replacing the dollar on a grand scale seems far-fetched, though. Even if the US were matched in GDP by China or the euro zone, its financial openness, legal protections and issuance of Treasuries as a single safe asset — unlike Europe’s fragmented sovereign bond market — would still leave the dollar without challengers. Despite some recent moves by foreign central banks to diversify, 57 percent of global official reserves are in dollars. Liabilities matter even more: 49 percent of cross‑border loans and 46 percent of international bonds use the greenback. The dollar appears in 89 percent of foreign‑exchange trades and, for the average country, on 62 percent of export invoices.

Most of these figures, which come from the Bank for International Settlements and the International Monetary Fund, have been stable since at least 1999. It gives Washington a powerful lever: because payments ultimately pass through correspondent bank accounts in New York, the US Treasury has been able to monitor flows and block transactions of North Korean entities, Venezuelan institutions and Hezbollah‑linked networks. It has also frozen assets and imposed sanctions, as against Iran in 2012 and Russia in 2022. And, because allied nations face similar exposures in their banks, they are effectively forced to cooperate. US authorities in 2014 slapped France’s BNP Paribas with a $9 billion penalty linked to violating American sanctions on Sudan, Cuba and Iran.

This echoes the work of German economist Georg Friedrich Knapp, who in 1905 argued that a state’s ability to extract taxes and fines is what gives its currency domestic value. Through sanctions, the US applies a version of this internationally, with the world’s most advanced military ensuring its ability to collect.

Defence capabilities and currency power have a close relationship. The presence of dollars and euros in other nations’ global currency reserves roughly matches US and European governments’ share of military spending since 1971, according to the SIPRI Military Expenditure Database. One explicit example of the link was the 1974 US-Saudi accord, which set the terms of economic co-operation between the two sides. It involved American military support in exchange for the Gulf state investing in Uncle Sam’s debt.

Yet for many countries, particularly in Europe, the US is no longer a reliable provider of military security. In other words, the international version of Knapp’s theory may now start working in reverse. An unpredictable and unreliable American defence guarantee gives governments in Europe and elsewhere less of an incentive, on the margin, to use greenbacks. As Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said in a speech at the World Economic Forum last week, great powers using “financial infrastructure as coercion” sparks a search for autonomy.

What does this mean for the United States? The risk isn’t really a loss of financial benefits, which are surprisingly elusive beyond the profit American banks get from intermediating foreign transactions. Often cited is the US’s ability to borrow cheaply from abroad, but this may just be skewed by the tax‑avoidance strategies of multinationals.

Or take the Federal Reserve’s role as global lender of last resort. True, it shielded the US during the 2008 and 2020 crises, but it also forced the central bank to help provide dollars to foreign nations or face a domestic blowback.

Equally, the supposed negative effects of dollar dominance are overstated too. Take the so-called “exorbitant burden” created by international demand for the greenback, which according to Fed ratesetter Stephen Miran and Peking University professor Michael Pettis makes US exports uncompetitive. The 1970s, early 1990s and mid‑2000s show that a global dollar can coexist with a weak exchange rate.

Dollar dominance is a reflection of US military, financial and economic strength. None of this is entirely imperilled by Trump’s antagonising of his NATO allies. The truth is subtler. Elliot Hentov of State Street Investment Management notes that transactions can migrate to more localised networks without causing a big dent on international dollar assets and liabilities.

China is already doing this, settling bilateral trade in yuan and local currencies while keeping a big US Treasury stash. India has begun using special rupee “vostro accounts”, to pay for imports such as Russian oil. Europe half-heartedly attempted something similar between 2019 and 2023 with INSTEX, a special purpose vehicle to facilitate trade with Iran without triggering US sanctions. As Germany, Britain and France take more responsibility for their own security, there may be better efforts along those lines. By ruling only through fear, King Dollar may lose some of what turned its might into power.

EU, India successfully conclude major trade deal
28 Jan 2026;
Source: The Daily Star

The leaders of India and the European Union will announce the "mother of all deals" on Tuesday, when they meet in New Delhi to formalise a huge trade pact reached after two decades of negotiations.

EU chiefs and Prime Minister Narendra Modi hope the pact, which Modi said was concluded on Monday, will help shield against challenges from the world's two leading economies, the United States and China.

"People in the world are discussing this as a mother of all deals," Modi said Tuesday in the capital New Delhi ahead of a meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa.

"This deal will bring many opportunities for India's 1.4 billion and many millions of people of the EU," Modi said, adding the agreement "represents about 25 percent of global GDP, and one-third of global trade".

The EU leaders, who were guests of honour at India's Republic Day parade on Monday, will meet Modi later Tuesday morning.

The EU has eyed India -- the world's most populous nation -- as an important market for the future.

New Delhi sees the European bloc as an important source of much-needed technology and investment to rapidly upscale its infrastructure and create millions of new jobs.

Bilateral trade in goods reached 120 billion euros ($139 billion) in 2024, an increase of nearly 90 percent over the past decade, according to EU figures, with a further 60 billion euros ($69 billion) in trade in services.

Under the agreement, India is expected to ease market access for key European products, including cars and wine, in return for easier exports of textiles and pharmaceuticals, among other things.

"The EU stands to gain the highest level of access ever granted to a trade partner in the traditionally protected Indian market," von der Leyen said on Sunday, adding that she expected exports to India to double.

"We will gain a significant competitive advantage in key industrial and agri-good sectors."

For India, it would boost sectors including textiles, gems and jewellery, and leather goods, as well as the service sector, Modi said.

For the EU, it is expected to slash tariffs on automobiles, wine and food exports to India.

Talks went down to the wire on Monday, focusing on a few sticking points, including the impact of the EU's carbon border tax on steel, according to sources familiar with the discussions.

The accord comes as both Brussels and New Delhi have sought to open up new markets in the face of US tariffs and Chinese export controls.

India and the EU were also expected to conclude an accord to facilitate movement for seasonal workers, students, researchers and highly skilled professionals, and a security and defence pact.

"India and Europe have made a clear choice. The choice of strategic partnership, dialogue and openness," von der Leyen wrote on social media. "We are showing a fractured world that another way is possible."

India is on track to become its fourth-largest economy this year, according to International Monetary Fund projections.

New Delhi, which has relied on Moscow for key military hardware for decades, has tried to cut its dependence on Russia in recent years by diversifying imports and pushing its own domestic manufacturing base.

Europe is doing the same with regard to the United States.

Gold climbs, silver jumps 8%
28 Jan 2026;
Source: The Daily Star

Gold rose on Tuesday as geopolitical uncertainty underpinned safe-haven demand, while silver surged 8 percent to hover near all-time highs.

Spot gold climbed 1.6 percent to $5,092.70 per ounce, as of 0710 GMT, after scaling a record $5,110.50 on Monday. It broke through the $5,100 mark for the first time in the previous session.

US gold futures for February delivery edged 0.1 percent higher to $5,088.40 per ounce.

“Trump’s disruptive policy approach this year is playing into the hands of precious metals as a defensive play. The threats of higher tariffs to Canada and South Korea are doing enough to keep gold a safe-haven choice,” said Tim Waterer, KCM Trade’s chief market analyst.

Escalating trade tensions on Monday, US President Donald Trump said he would raise tariffs on South Korean auto, lumber, and pharmaceutical imports to 25 percent, while criticising Seoul for failing to enact a trade deal with Washington.

This was after he threatened tariffs on Canada in the backdrop of a thawing relationship with China, following Canadian PM Mark Carney’s visit to the country earlier this month.

“(Gold’s rally) points to a material geopolitical, or uncertainty premium now embedded in gold prices, driven less by cyclical factors and more by the persistent uncertainty around geopolitics,” Christopher Wong, a strategist at OCBC said in a note.

A looming US government shutdown and Trump’s erratic policymaking pressured the greenback, making the dollar-priced gold cheaper for overseas consumers.

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at its meeting beginning later in the day, amid the challenges posed by the Trump administration to US central bank independence. F

Spot silver jumped 6.1 percent to $110.19 an ounce, after hitting a record high of $117.69 on Monday. It has already surged more than 50 percent so far this year.

From a technical perspective, silver now appears expensive relative to gold, with the gold-to-silver ratio currently at a 14-year low, analysts at BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, said in a note.

With speculative buying leading the latest rally, BMI said, they now expect prices to ease in the coming months as supply tightness eases and industrial demand for silver starts to peak with a slowing Mainland Chinese economy.

Venezuela forecasts $1.4 bn oil investments in 2026, up 55%: president
28 Jan 2026;
Source: The Daily Star

Venezuela's interim president Delcy Rodriguez on Monday forecast a $1.4 billion bonanza from planned reforms to the oil sector aimed at drawing in foreign investors following the ouster of Nicolas Maduro.

Rodriguez projected oil investments would rise 55 percent over 2025 after a bill ending decades of tight state control on the energy sector is adopted by parliament.

"Last year, investment came to nearly $900 million and for this year, $1.4 billion in investments have been signed," claimed Rodriguez, who succeeded Maduro after his January 3 overthrow by US special forces.

Rodriguez was addressing a business audience as part of public consultations on plans to throw open the oil sector to private investment.

"We must go from the country with the planet's biggest (proven) reserves of oil to a giant in production terms," Rodriguez argued.

The interim leader is under pressure from President Donald Trump to give US oil companies access to Venezuela's rich crude deposits.

Trump backed her to take over from her former boss Maduro as long as she complies with his agenda.

Years of mismanagement and corruption drove Venezuela's output down from a peak of over 3 million barrels epr day (bpd) in the early 2000s to a historic low of 350,000 barrels daily in 2020.

It has since rebounded to around 1.2 million bpd.

The hydrocarbons bill currently before the National Assembly stipulates that private companies located in Venezuela would be able to extract oil without having to enter a joint venture with the state oil company PDVSA, which insisted on a majority stake.

Legislators endorsed it during a first reading last week and are expected to adopt it in the coming days.

Gold tops record $5,000 mark on Trump policy uncertainty
27 Jan 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

The price of safe-haven asset gold surpassed $5,000 on Sunday (25 January), hitting a record amid rising global uncertainty and turmoil set off by US President Donald Trump's policies.

Gold reached $5,026 an ounce in trading after sister metal silver blasted through $102 an ounce for the first time on Friday.

While turbulence over Trump's ambitions for Greenland and pressure on the Federal Reserve have provided the most recent support for gold, the precious metal has for two years achieved all-time peaks on factors ranging from a weak dollar, strong central bank demand and elevated inflation.

Gold stood at just above $2,000 an ounce in January 2024.

The precious metal's price has also risen due to the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as Washington's intervention in Venezuela.

"Over the past few days, gold's price action has been textbook safe-haven behaviour," said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex.com.

"Underlying demand for protection is still there. Confidence in the dollar and bonds looks a bit shaky."

'Slow-burning support'

Trump backed away last week from threatened tariffs on several European nations because of their opposition to Washington seizing the mineral-rich Arctic island of Greenland.

But his comments set off a bruising transatlantic crisis, reviving trade war fears and uncertainty about US investment.

The dollar plunged to a four-month low against the euro while gold prices surged.

"Gold pressed on to a fresh record high as geopolitical tensions remain elevated," Neil Wilson, investor strategist at Saxo UK, noted Friday.

"The extreme tail risk of a US military intervention in Greenland was never being priced by markets. Worries about an escalatory trade war were."

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen visited Greenland's capital on Friday for talks with the territory's leader.

Investors were additionally preparing for this week's Federal Reserve policy meeting, which comes after US prosecutors took aim at its boss Jerome Powell, raising fears over the bank's independence.

Trump has made no secret of his disdain for Powell, claiming there is "no inflation" and repeatedly questioning the Fed chair's competence and integrity.

The heads of major central banks threw their support behind the Fed and Powell last week, after US prosecutors issued subpoenas against him that threaten a criminal indictment.

"Add in lingering doubts around central bank independence and you are left with a slow-burning support base for gold," said independent analyst Stephen Innes.

Gold demand by value surged 44% year-on-year to a record $146 billion in the third quarter of last year, the World Gold Council has said in its latest report.

There has been strong demand for gold also via Exchange-Traded Funds on stock markets. ETFs allow investment without trading on the gold futures market.

China says Canada deal not aimed at US
27 Jan 2026;
Source: The Daily Star

China said on Monday that a preliminary trade deal with Canada “does not target any third parties” after the United States threatened to impose 100-percent tariffs on Canadian products if the agreements were finalised.

Under the deal, announced this month, Beijing is expected to reduce tariffs on Canadian canola imports and grant Canadians visa-free travel to China.

But over the weekend, the United States -- Canada’s traditional ally -- threatened to impose 100-percent tariffs on Canadian products if the deal were to go ahead, saying it would allow China to “dump goods”.

China’s foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said on Monday that the trade deal was not aimed at Washington.

“China and Canada have established a new type of strategic partnership... it does not target any third party,” China’s foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun told a regular press conference.

“China advocates that nations should approach state-to-state relations with a win-win rather than zero-sum mindset, and through cooperation rather than confrontation,” he added.

The deal was announced during Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to Beijing this month, as he seeks to distance himself from a volatile United States under President Donald Trump.

Canada and the United States have been caught in a trade war since the Trump administration imposed import duties on its northern neighbour.

On Sunday, Trump wrote on social media that negotiations between Ottawa and Beijing amounted to China “successfully and completely taking over the once Great Country of Canada”.

Following the president’s comments, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told US media that “we can’t let Canada become an opening that the Chinese pour their cheap goods into the US”.

Gold has more room to run as geopolitics, cenbank buying fuel gains, analysts say
27 Jan 2026;
Source: The Daily Star

Analysts expect spot gold prices, which hit a record high above $5,000 per ounce on Monday, to climb further toward $6,000 this year ​on mounting global tensions as well as strong central-bank and retail demand.

Gold raced to a peak of $5,092.70 as geopolitical and economic risks rattled markets. ‌The safe-haven metal is up more than 17 percent this year, after soaring 64 percent in 2025.

The London Bullion Market Association's annual precious metals forecast survey shows analysts projecting gold rising as high as $7,150 and averaging $4,742 in 2026.

Goldman Sachs has raised its December 2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 from $4,900.

Independent analyst Ross Norman expects a high of $6,400 this year, with an average of $5,375.

"The only certainty at the moment seems to be uncertainty, and that's playing very much into gold's hands," Norman said.

GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS

Gold's recent rally has been fuelled by geopolitical tensions, ‌from the US–NATO friction over Greenland and tariff uncertainty to rising doubts over the independence of the US Federal Reserve, among others.

"With the upcoming US ​mid-term elections, political uncertainty may increase further. At the same time, persistent concerns about over-valued equity markets are likely to reinforce portfolio diversification flows into gold," said Philip Newman, a director at Metals Focus.

"After crossing the $5,000/ounce milestone, we expect further upside," he added.

ROBUST CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES

Central-bank gold buying, a key driver of prices in ‍2025, is expected to stay strong this year.

Goldman Sachs forecasts purchases to average 60 metric tons a month as emerging-market central banks continue diversifying reserves into gold.

Poland's central bank, which held 550 tons of gold at end-2025, aims to lift reserves to 700 tons, Governor Adam Glapinski said this month.

These plans reaffirm the view that the key driver behind the spike in gold is ⁠central banks "looking to de-dollarise ... and where else could you go except into gold?" Norman said.

China's central bank extended its gold-buying spree for a 14th month in December.

ETF ‍INFLOWS, RETAIL DEMAND

Inflows into gold-backed ETFs, which store bullion for investors and account for a significant amount of investment demand for the metal, are also underpinning prices as markets expect ‌further US ‌rate cuts this year.

"There's an opportunity cost to holding gold which has no yield. As interest rates decline, so does this opportunity cost. If the Fed continues to lower rates in 2026, demand for gold should rise," said Chris Mancini, co-portfolio manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund.

Gold ETFs saw record inflows in 2025, led by North American funds, according to World Gold Council data, with annual inflows surging to $89 billion. In tonnage terms, inflows totalled 801 metric tons, the highest since their record in ⁠2020.

"There's an opportunity cost to holding gold which has no yield. As interest rates decline, so does this opportunity cost. If the Fed continues to lower rates in 2026, demand for gold should rise," said Chris Mancini, co-portfolio manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund.

Gold ETFs saw record inflows in 2025, led by North American funds, according to World Gold Council data, with annual inflows surging to $89 billion. In tonnage terms, inflows totalled 801 metric tons, the highest since their record in ⁠2020.

"You don't need to analyse a balance sheet, assess credit risk or ‍worry about a country or sovereign risk," he said. "Your only risk with physical gold is the price direction. And as geopolitics and geoeconomics have become more complicated ... that simplicity has become more attractive."

WHAT'S NEXT FOR GOLD?

Analysts say several factors could trigger a correction, including a pullback in US rate-cut expectations, margin calls in equities, and easing concerns about Fed independence.

However, most expect any pullback to ​be short-lived and treated as a buying opportunity.

"A meaningful and sustained decline in gold would require ‍a return to a more stable economic and geopolitical backdrop, which currently appears unlikely," Newman added.

Trump threatens 100% tariff if Canada seals China deal
26 Jan 2026;
Source: The Daily Star

US President Donald Trump on Saturday warned Canada that if it concludes a trade deal with China, he will impose a 100 percent tariff on all goods coming over the border.

Relations between the United States and its northern neighbor have been rocky since Trump returned to the White House a year ago, with spats over trade and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney decrying a “rupture” in the US-led global order.

During a visit to Beijing last week, Carney hailed a “new strategic partnership” with China that resulted in a “preliminary but landmark trade agreement” to reduce tariffs -- but Trump warned of serious consequences should that deal be realized.

If Carney “thinks he is going to make Canada a ‘Drop Off Port’ for China to send goods and products into the United States, he is sorely mistaken,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.

“China will eat Canada alive, completely devour it, including the destruction of their businesses, social fabric, and general way of life,” he said.

“If Canada makes a deal with China, it will immediately be hit with a 100 percent Tariff against all Canadian goods and products coming into the USA.”

Trump insulted Carney by calling him “Governor” -- a swipe referring to the US president’s repeated insistence that Canada should be the 51st US state.

Trump this week posted an image on social media of a map with Canada -- as well as Greenland and Venezuela -- covered by the American flag.

Canada’s minister responsible for trade with the United States, Dominic LeBlanc, pushed back against Trump’s latest threat. “There is no pursuit of a free trade deal with China. What was achieved was resolution on several important tariff issues,” he wrote on X.

The two leaders have sharpened their rhetorical knives in recent days, beginning with Carney’s speech on Tuesday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he earned a standing ovation for his frank assessment of a “rupture” in the US-led global order.

His comment was widely viewed as a reference to Trump’s disruptive influence on international affairs, although Carney did not mention the US leader by name.

Trump fired back at Carney a day later in his own speech, and then withdrew an invitation for the Canadian prime minister to join his “Board of Peace” -- his self-styled body for resolving global conflict.

Initially designed to oversee the situation in postwar Gaza, the body appears now to have a far wider scope, sparking concerns that Trump wants to create a rival to the United Nations.

“Canada lives because of the United States. Remember that, Mark, the next time you make your statements,” Trump said.

Carney shot back on Thursday: “Canada doesn’t live because of the United States. Canada thrives because we are Canadian.” He nevertheless acknowledged the “remarkable partnership” between the two nations.

Canada heavily relies on trade with the United States, the destination for more than three quarters of Canadian exports.

Key Canadian sectors like auto, aluminum and steel have been hit hard by Trump’s global sectoral tariffs, but the levies’ impacts have been muted by the president’s broad adherence to an existing North American free trade agreement.

Negotiations on revising that deal are set for early this year, and Trump has repeatedly insisted the United States doesn’t need access to any Canadian products -- which would have sweeping consequences for its northern neighbor.

Matthew Holmes, executive vice president of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, said in a statement that he hoped the two governments would “come to a better understanding quickly that can alleviate further concerns for businesses.”

The two nations, along with Mexico, are set to host the World Cup later this year.

EU set to elevate ties with Vietnam amid trade disruptions: Source says
26 Jan 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

The European Union and Vietnam will elevate ties during a visit to Hanoi by the European Council President Antonio Costa on Thursday, an EU official said, as both sides seek to expand international partnerships amid disruptions from US tariffs.

The visit comes on the heels of To Lam's re-appointment as Vietnam's top official, potentially making Costa the first leader of a major power to meet Lam since the ruling Communist Party on Friday appointed him for a new term as general secretary.

The elevation of ties to Vietnam's highest level has been planned for months and was delayed largely because of schedule complications, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

It would place the EU on the same tier as China, the US and Russia among others, further expanding Vietnam's advanced partnerships, in line with the country's strategy of balancing big powers.

The European Council declined to comment. Vietnam's government did not respond to a request for comment.

These upgrades are largely symbolic, as they merely entail more frequent high-level meetings and usually no binding agreements.

Vietnam's relations with the United States worsened last year after the Trump administration imposed tariffs, despite the upgrade of bilateral ties inked by former president Joe Biden during a visit to Hanoi in late 2023.

More cooperation on tech, minerals

The upgrade with the EU is expected to generate more cooperation in multiple fields, including research, technology, energy and critical minerals, according to a draft joint statement, the official said. Vietnam has significant but often little exploited deposits of rare earths, gallium and tungsten.

The Southeast Asian trade-reliant nation is a major link in global supply chains, especially for electronics, clothing and footwear. It has a string of free trade agreements with multiple partners, including with the European Union.

The EU has repeatedly criticised Vietnam's implementation of the free trade agreement, which has boosted Vietnam's surplus with the 27-nation bloc since it came into force in 2020. The EU deficit with Hanoi stood at 42.5 billion euros ($50.26 billion) in 2024.

EU officials accuse Hanoi of hampering EU imports with multiple non-tariff barriers, but Brussels has so far taken limited action to address the situation.

Also, facing tariffs from the United States, the EU has prioritised improving ties with economic partners and expanding trade agreements, including recently with South American nations of the Mercosur bloc.

Costa will visit India before Vietnam, where together with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, he intends to hold trade talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, according to a schedule published by the EU Council.

US seeks quick repairs to lift Venezuela oil output, Bloomberg News reports
26 Jan 2026;
Source: The Daily Star

The United States is in talks with Chevron, other crude producers, and major oilfield service providers about a plan to quickly raise Venezuela's crude production, Bloomberg News reported on Saturday, citing senior administration officials.

Officials have discussed deploying SLB, Halliburton and Baker Hughes to repair and replace outdated equipment, and refresh older drilling sites, the report said.

Reuters could not immediately verify the report. The White House, Chevron, SLB, Baker Hughes and Halliburton did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment.

With limited investment, Venezuela could boost production by several hundred thousand barrels over the short term, the report said, adding that modern US equipment and techniques could revitalise existing wells and bring new production online within months.

US President Donald Trump said on Friday that US oil companies will soon start drilling for oil in Venezuela. Trump has been clear about his desire to boost oil production in Venezuela following the capture of the country's leader, Nicolas Maduro.

India to slash tariffs on cars to 40% in trade deal with EU: Sources
26 Jan 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

India plans to slash tariffs on cars imported from the European Union to 40% from as high as 110%, sources said, in the biggest opening yet of the country's vast market as the two sides close in on a free trade pact that could come as early as 27 January.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has agreed to immediately reduce the tax on a limited number of cars from the 27-nation bloc with an import price of more than 15,000 euros ($17,739), two sources briefed on the talks told Reuters.

This will be further lowered to 10% over time, they added, easing access to the Indian market for European automakers such as Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and BMW.

The sources declined to be identified as the talks are confidential and could be subject to last-minute changes. India's commerce ministry and the European Commission declined to comment.

'Mother of all deals'

India and the EU are expected to announce 27 January the conclusion of protracted negotiations for the free trade pact, after which the two sides will finalise the details and ratify what is being called "the mother of all deals.

The pact could expand bilateral trade and lift Indian exports of goods such as textiles and jewellery, which have been hit by 50% US tariffs since late August.

India is the world's third-largest car market by sales after the US and China, but its domestic auto industry has been one of the most protected. New Delhi currently levies tariffs of 70% and 110% on imported cars, a level often criticised by executives, including Tesla chief Elon Musk.

New Delhi has proposed slashing import duties to 40% immediately for about 200,000 combustion-engine cars a year, one of the sources said, its most aggressive move yet to open up the sector.

This quota could be subject to last-minute changes, the source added.

Battery electric vehicles will be excluded from import duty reductions for the first five years to protect investments by domestic players like Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors in the nascent sector, the two sources said.

After five years, EVs will follow similar duty cuts.

Market currently dominated by Suzuki and local makers

Lower import taxes will be a boost for European automakers such as Volkswagen, Renault and Stellantis, as well as luxury players Mercedes-Benz and BMW which locally manufacture cars in India but have struggled to grow beyond a point in part due to high tariffs.

Lower taxes will allow carmakers to sell imported vehicles for a cheaper price and test the market with a broader portfolio before committing to manufacturing more cars locally, said one of the two sources.

European carmakers currently hold a less than 4% share of India's 4.4-million units a year car market, which is dominated by Japan's Suzuki Motor as well as homegrown brands Mahindra and Tata that together hold two-thirds.

With the Indian market expected to grow to 6 million units a year by 2030, some companies are already lining up new investment.

Renault is making a comeback in India with a new strategy as it seeks growth outside Europe, where Chinese carmakers are making strong inroads, and Volkswagen Group is finalising its next leg of investment in India through its Skoda brand.

EU suspends India’s GSP benefits
26 Jan 2026;
Source: The Daily Star

The European Union has suspended Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP) tariff benefits for a wide range of Indian exports from January 1, a move expected to significantly raise duties on shipments to the 27-nation bloc and weaken India’s price competitiveness in key sectors, according to a report by The Hindu.

The suspension applies to the 2026-2028 period and covers India, Indonesia and Kenya, the Official Journal of the European Union said, citing a regulation adopted by the European Commission on September 25, 2025.

The decision comes at a sensitive time, as India and the EU are expected to announce the conclusion of negotiations for a free trade agreement (FTA) on January 27.

According to trade think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), about 87 percent of India’s exports to the EU will now face higher most-favoured-nation (MFN) tariffs following the withdrawal of GSP concessions. Only around 13 percent of exports, mainly agriculture and leather products, will continue to enjoy preferential access.

Under the GSP, Indian exporters were able to ship goods to the EU at duties below MFN rates. For example, an apparel item attracting a 12 percent tariff paid only 9.6 percent under the scheme. From January 1, exporters must pay the full duty.

The EU has removed GSP benefits across almost all major industrial sectors, including textiles and garments, plastics and rubber, chemicals, iron and steel, machinery, electrical goods and transport equipment, which together form the backbone of India’s exports to Europe. While the EU has periodically reduced preferences in the past, this marks a complete withdrawal for three years.

GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said Indian exporters will face higher trade barriers in the near term, compounded by rising compliance costs and the rollout of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. He warned that in price-sensitive sectors such as garments, the loss of GSP could divert EU buyers toward duty-free suppliers like Bangladesh and Vietnam.

India’s goods trade with the EU stood at $136.53 billion in 2024-25, with the bloc accounting for about 17 percent of India’s total exports.

Europe, India seek closer ties with ‘mother of all deals’
25 Jan 2026;
Source: The Daily Star

India and Europe hope to strike the “mother of all deals” when EU chiefs meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi next week, as the two economic behemoths seek to forge closer ties.

Facing challenges from China and the United States, India and the European Union have been negotiating a massive free trade pact -- and talks, first launched about two decades ago, are nearing the finishing line.

“We are on the cusp of a historic trade agreement,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said this week.

Von der Leyen and European Council president Antonio Costa will attend Republic Day celebrations Monday before an EU-India summit Tuesday, where they hope to shake hands on the accord.

Securing a pact described by India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal as “the mother of all deals”, would be a major win for Brussels and New Delhi as both seek to open up new markets in the face of US tariffs and Chinese export controls.

But officials have been eager to stress there is more to it than commerce.

“The EU and India are moving closer together at the time when the rules-based international order is under unprecedented pressure through wars, coercion and economic fragmentation,” the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas said Wednesday.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and US President Donald Trump’s punitive tariffs have brought momentum to the relationship between India and the EU, said Praveen Donthi, of the International Crisis Group think tank.

“The EU eyes the Indian market and aims to steer a rising power like India away from Russia, while India seeks to diversify its partnerships, doubling down on its strategy of multi-alignment at a time when its relations with the US have taken a downward turn,” he said.

The summit will offer Brussels the chance to turn the page after a bruising transatlantic crisis over Greenland -- now seemingly defused. Together the EU and India account for about a quarter of the world’s population and GDP.

Bilateral trade in goods reached 120 billion euros ($139 billion) in 2024, an increase of nearly 90 percent over the past decade, according to EU figures, with a further 60 billion euros ($69 billion) in trade in services. But both parties are eager to do more.

“India still accounts for around only around 2.5 percent of total EU trade in goods, compared with close to 15 percent for China,” an EU official said, adding the figure gave a sense of the “untapped potential” an agreement could unlock.

EU makers of cars, machinery and chemicals have much to gain from India lowering entry barriers, said Ignacio Garcia Bercero, an analyst at Brussels think tank Bruegel, who led EU trade talks with New Delhi over a decade ago.

“India is one of the most heavily protected economies in the world, with very, very high tariffs, including on many products where the European Union has a competitive advantage,” he told AFP.

Its economy in the doldrums, the 27-member EU is also pushing to ease exports of spirits and wines and strengthen intellectual property rules. India -- the fastest‑growing major economy in the world -- wants easier market access for products such as textiles and pharmaceuticals.

EU officials were tight-lipped about the deal’s contents as negotiations are ongoing.

But agriculture, a sensitive topic in both India and Europe, is likely to play a limited role, with New Delhi eager to protect its dairy and grain sectors.

Talks are focusing on a few sticking points, including the impact of the EU’s carbon border tax on steel exports and safety and quality standards in the pharmaceutical and automotive sectors, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Still EU officials said they were confident negotiations could be concluded in time for the summit.

An accord on mobility to facilitate movement for seasonal workers, students, researchers and highly skilled professionals, is also on the menu, alongside a security and defence pact.

The latter envisages closer cooperation in areas including maritime security, cybersecurity and counter-terrorism, an EU official said. It is also a “precondition” for the possible joint production of military equipment, said a second EU official.

New Delhi, which has relied on Moscow for decades for key military hardware, has tried to cut its dependence on Russia in recent years by diversifying imports and pushing its own domestic manufacturing base. Europe is doing the same vis-a-vis the US.

“We’re ready to open a new chapter in EU-India relationships, and really to unlock what we think is the transformative potential of this partnership,” said another EU official.

Can China rely on domestic oil after Iran, Venezuela shocks?
25 Jan 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

China gets up to a fifth of its imported oil from Iran and another 4% to 5% from Venezuela, often through clandestine channels to skirt United States sanctions — or at least it did before recent disruptions.

US President Donald Trump's move earlier this month to unseat Venezuela's longtime leader, Nicolas Maduro, redirect its oil to the US and impose 25% tariffs on Iran-linked trade has raised serious questions about energy security in the world's second-largest economy.

Oil prices briefly spiked on fears that China's discounted Iranian supplies could be hit, while experts warned that US seizures of Venezuela-linked oil tankers may further constrict flows.

Can China's domestic production fill the gap?

Beijing, meanwhile, has limited room to fall back on its domestic oil production to plug the gap.

As most of China's imported oil runs through the narrow, congested Malacca Strait, Beijing has long treated the route as a strategic vulnerability. The strait, which is patrolled by the US navy, became a potential chokepoint during Trump's first term as bilateral tensions escalated with Washington.

In 2019, President Xi Jinping ordered the ramping up of exploration and refining at home, launching the Seven-Year Action Plan and billions in new investments by China's oil majors CNPC, Sinopec and CNOOC. Those gains, however, have been modest.

Domestic production rose from 3.8 million barrels per day in 2018 to around 4.32 million barrels per day last year. However, even the growth from new wells, including tight shale fracking— tight oil or shale is found in impermeable shale and limestone rock deposits — could only offset the decline of China's giant legacy fields, like Daqing in northeastern Heilongjiang Province and Shengli on the eastern Yellow River Delta.

June Goh, a Singapore-based senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities, said the cumulative output growth of 8.9% since 2021 is "huge," surpassing Beijing's target of the equivalent of 4 million barrels a day.

"The recent supply risk serves to prove that what they are doing is right," Goh told DW. But she warned that further production growth was unlikely to be "exponential" as China's oil majors are struggling to discover new reserves.

Other oil sector experts who have closely tracked China's efforts to boost domestic production have described the situation more bluntly.

"[Despite] a huge amount of investment over the past 15 years or more," output has largely been "running to stay still," Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst of the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, told DW.

Myllyvirta said despite billions of yuan being poured into new oil wells, fracking and offshore projects, domestic oil production "has not budged."

Oil stockpiles will help offset losses from Iran, Venezuela

With domestic output offering little upside, Beijing is leaning more on oil reserves. Since late 2023, Chinese policymakers significantly accelerated the expansion and filling of emergency stockpiles, known as strategic petroleum reserves (SPR). The move was fueled by growing geopolitical tensions following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and a global surge in energy prices.

China was partly insulated after cutting deals with Iran and Russia to secure heavily discounted crude at below-market rates amid Western sanctions. Moscow became China's top oil supplier until last year, when US sanctions on Russian firms and tankers caused a noticeable drop in flows.

Iran has since filled much of the gap, with nearly all of its exports — up to 2 million barrels per day at one point last year — delivered covertly to China via shadow fleets, ship-to-ship transfers and relabeling to disguise origins and evade tracking.

These stockpiles were increased further in 2025, Reuters news agency reported in October, with 11 new storage sites expected to be operational by early this year.

Goh thinks stockpiling rather than production increases will help China to further boost its energy independence amid likely falling supplies from Iran, Venezuela and Russia.

"China currently has 110 days of cover, which is higher than the OECD target of 90 days," she said, referring to both the SPR and commercial reserves. "They have set a target of 180 days, so efforts to stockpile will now be accelerated given the geopolitical risks."

Renewables, electrification emerge as the safer bet for China

While reserves provide immediate cushioning, longer-term resilience lies in the other measures China has pursued to strengthen energy security. These include rapid electrification and a record build-out of renewable energy.

Beijing has spent the past five years aggressively shifting oil-consuming sectors, including transport and heavy industry, toward electricity. Oil use in the transport sector peaked in 2023, China's largest state oil producer, CNPC, reported last February. The country is upgrading its grid and building ultra-high-voltage lines to carry power from remote generation hubs to coastal industrial centers.

Electric vehicles (EV) now account for well over half of new car sales, and entire city bus fleets in Shenzhen, Guangzhou and dozens of provincial capitals have already gone fully electric. The rapid rollout of more than a million EV charging stations nationwide has helped cap growth in gasoline demand even as the economy expands.

In 2024 and 2025 alone, China added more solar capacity than the rest of the world combined, alongside record wind installations across Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and coastal provinces.

"China's wind and solar capacity growth has been more than 300 gigawatts per year over the past three years and is likely to have reached 400 gigawatts last year," Myllyvirta noted.

Although these efforts can't eliminate the country's reliance on imported crude, they do blunt the impact of possible disruptions from heavily-sanctioned oil suppliers.

As China's leaders prepare to unveil the next 5-year plan in March — the blueprint that will steer national economic and energy priorities until the early 2030s — further investments in domestic fossil fuel production, electrification and renewables are expected to feature heavily.

"For the next 5-year plan, China has a wide range of possible targets," Myllyvirta said. "Combined with [additional oil] storage, maintaining that rate of renewable growth could substitute a lot of gas or coal in power generation. Electrification can replace all fossil fuels in industry, transportation and buildings."

Oil rises nearly 3%
25 Jan 2026;
Source: The Daily Star

Oil prices settled at their highest in over a week on Friday after US President Donald Trump ratcheted up pressure against Iran through more sanctions on vessels that transport its oil, and announced an armada was heading towards the Middle Eastern nation.

Brent crude futures rose $1.82, or 2.8 percent, to settle at $65.88 a barrel, the highest since January 14. US West Texas Intermediate crude gained $1.71, or 2.9 percent, at $61.07, also a more than one-week high.

Both benchmarks notched weekly gains of over 2.5 percent.

Trump’s statements renewed warnings to Tehran against killing protesters or restarting its nuclear program. The escalating pressure has caused concerns of oil supply disruptions in the Middle East. Kazakhstan has been struggling to resume output from one of the world’s largest oilfields.

Warships, including an aircraft carrier and guided-missile destroyers, will arrive in the Middle East in the coming days, a US official said. The United States conducted strikes on Iran last June.

The US on Friday also imposed sanctions on nine vessels and eight related firms involved in transporting Iranian oil and petroleum products, the US Treasury said in a statement.

At about 3.2 million barrels per day according to Opec figures, Iran is Opec’s fourth-biggest crude oil producer behind Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates. It is also a major exporter to China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer.

Chevron said oil output at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oilfield has yet to resume after Chevron-led operator Tengizchevroil announced a shutdown on Monday following a fire.

The incident exacerbated problems for Kazakhstan’s oil industry, already challenged by bottlenecks at its main exporting gateway on the Black Sea, which has been damaged by Ukrainian drones.

JP Morgan said on Friday that Tengiz, which accounts for nearly half of Kazakhstan’s production, could remain offline for the rest of the month and that Kazakhstan’s crude output is likely to average only 1 million to 1.1 million bpd in January, compared with a usual level of around 1.8 million bpd.

Colombia is suspending electricity sales to Ecuador and will impose a 30 percent tariff on 20 products from its neighbor.

Oil prices climbed earlier in the week on Trump’s moves on Greenland, but dropped by about 2 percent on Thursday as he backed off tariff threats against Europe and ruled out military action.

Trump said on Thursday that Denmark, NATO and the US had reached a deal that would allow “total access” to Greenland.

Speculative frenzy catapults silver above $100/oz
25 Jan 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

Silver prices vaulted above $100 an ounce on Friday, extending a remarkable 2025 surge into the new year as retail investor and momentum-driven buying added to a prolonged spell of tightness in physical markets for the precious and industrial metal.

Hopping onto the coat-tails of far more expensive gold, technical analysts who study charts of past price moves to predict future movement said the rapid nature of silver's gains had positioned it for a major correction.

"Silver is in the midst of a self-propelled frenzy and with plenty of geopolitical risk to give gold added buoyancy, silver is benefiting, even now, from its lower unit price," said StoneX analyst Rhona O'Connell.

"Everyone, it seems, wants to be involved but it is also flashing amber wealth warnings," she added. "As and when cracks start to appear they could easily become chasms. Buckle up."

Spot prices for silver, used in jewellery, electronics, solar panels, as well as an investment, were last up 5.1% at $101 per troy ounce on Friday.

The price has gained 40% since the beginning of 2026 after rallying by 147% in 2025. Gold hit a record high of $4,988 per ounce on Friday.

BofA strategist Michael Widmer estimates that a fundamentally justified silver price is around $60 with demand from solar panel producers probably having peaked in 2025 and overall industrial demand under pressure from record-high prices.

For the first time in 14 years, it will take just 50 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold as of Friday, down from 105 ounces in April.

This ratio, which traders and analysts use as a gauge for future direction, means that silver's outperformance over gold has become stretched.

Investment demand

Silver's gain in 2025 was the largest yearly growth in LSEG data going back to 1983.

The market's performance in 2025 was underpinned by robust investment demand for all precious metals and an extended period of thin liquidity in the benchmark London silver market as worries about US tariffs prompted massive inflows to US stocks.

Several waves of active retail buying through purchases of small bars and coins as well as inflows into physically backed silver exchange-traded funds have added to buying since October, according to analysts.

Almost 20% of a total 1.0-billion-ounce silver supply comes annually from the recycling sector, with activity heightened due to record prices.

However, inventories have not been rebuilding quickly with a shortage of high-grade refining capacity limiting the speed at which silver scrap material can be returned to the market, leading precious metals consultancy Metals Focus said.

The availability of the stocks in the market and secondary supply have become more crucial after five consecutive years of structural deficit, set to persist in 2026.

These deficits, outflows to the US and inflows to the ETFs saw the amount of metal which can be quickly mobilised in periods of high demand in London commercial vaults dwindle to a record low of 136 million ounces by end-September, Metals Focus estimates.

By end-2025, stocks had recovered to nearly 200 million ounces helping to drive down lease rates in London from their October spike, but remained far below the roughly 360 million ounces available in London in the peak of the Reddit-driven rally in early 2021.

What now?

Analysts expect outflows from US stocks to speed up and boost liquidity in the traditional markets as Washington refrained from imposing any tariffs when announcing the results of its critical metals review in mid-January.

After peaking at 532 million ounces on 3 October, COMEX inventories have fallen by 114 million ounces to 418 million ounces, their lowest level since March, as the metal worth about $11 billion left the inventories.

To reach pre-Trump-election levels, COMEX stocks would need to see further outflows of about 113 million ounces, equal to about 11% of total annual silver supply.

"Profit taking following the frenzied nature of the investor-driven rally since late November is likely sooner rather than later, particularly in view of ongoing physical market easing," said BNP Paribas senior commodities strategist David Wilson.

Adani group firms shed $12.5bn in market value after SEC seeks court nod to serve summons
25 Jan 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

Shares of India's Adani Group companies lost about $12.5 billion in market capitalisation on Friday after the US securities regulator sought court permission to personally serve summons on group founder Gautam Adani and executive Sagar Adani over alleged fraud and a $265 million bribery scheme.

The sell-off followed a filing by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), reported by Reuters on Thursday after Indian markets had closed, seeking approval to email the summons directly to the two executives.

On Friday, Adani Enterprises, the group's flagship firm, emerged as the biggest percentage loser on India's benchmark Nifty 50 index. Its shares fell 10.65% to 1,864.2 rupees, while the Nifty ended the session down 0.95%. Shares of other Adani group companies declined between 3.4% and 14.54%.

The US indictment, unsealed in November 2024, accused Adani group executives of being part of a scheme to pay bribes to Indian officials to secure purchases of electricity produced by Adani Green Energy, a group subsidiary.

US law prohibits foreign companies that raise funds from American investors from paying bribes overseas to obtain business and from soliciting investment using false or misleading statements.

According to the SEC filing, India had previously declined two requests to serve the summons, which the regulator has been attempting to deliver since last year.

The Adani Group has rejected the allegations as "baseless" and said it would pursue "all possible legal recourse" to defend itself. It did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment on the latest SEC filing dated 21 January.

"Market participants assumed nothing was pending and that the group had been cleared, so the SEC filing appears to have come out of the blue," said Ambareesh Baliga, an independent market analyst.

With no clear timeline for the next steps, Baliga said the issue could linger for at least another fortnight, adding that overall market sentiment was already weak

TikTok seals deal for new US joint venture to avoid American ban
25 Jan 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

TikTok's Chinese owner, ByteDance, yesterday (22 January) said it has finalized a deal to establish a majority American-owned joint venture that will secure US data, to avoid a US ban on the short video app used by over 200 million Americans.

The deal is a milestone for the social media firm after years of battles that when President Trump tried to ban the app over national security concerns.

Trump later opted not to enforce a law passed in April 2024 ByteDance to sell its US assets by the following January or face a ban - a measure.

ByteDance said TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC will secure US user data, apps and algorithms through data privacy and cybersecurity measures. It disclosed few details about the divestiture.

Trump praised the deal in a social media post saying TikTok "will now be owned by a group of Great American Patriots and Investors, the Biggest in the World."

He thanked Chinese President Xi Jinping "for working with us and, ultimately, approving the Deal. He could have gone the other way, but didn't, and is appreciated for his decision."

The agreement provides for American and global investors to hold 80.1% of the venture while ByteDance will own 19.9%.

TikTok USDS JV's three managing investors - cloud computing giant Oracle, private equity group Silver Lake (SILAK.UL) and Abu Dhabi-based investment firm MGX - will each hold 15%.

A White House official told Reuters that the US and Chinese governments had signed off on the deal. The Chinese Embassy in Washington did not immediately comment.

Trump last year said the deal met the terms of divestiture requirements under the 2024 law. The White House in September said the venture would operate TikTok's US app.

Interested parties have yet to disclose elements of the deal such as the business relationships between the venture and ByteDance.

The president has more than 16 million followers on his personal TikTok account and credited the app with helping him win reelection.

He received a document from TikTok on 22 December touting how popular he is on the app, showed a photo published this month by the New York Times. The White House also launched an official TikTok account in August.

Japan's exports to US fall as tariffs bite
25 Jan 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

Japan's exports to the United States dropped 11.1% in December and slipped more than four% last year, official figures showed Thursday, as tariffs bite.

In 2025, Japan's exports to the United States fell 4.1%, contributing to a 12.6% decline in Tokyo's trade surplus with Washington to 7.5 trillion yen ($47 billion), finance ministry data showed.

A drop in the number of cars and auto parts exported, as well as rise in imports of liquified petroleum gas, cereals and power-generating machines, were primary factors in Tokyo's shrinking trade surplus with Washington, according to the data.

In December, Tokyo's exports to Washington fell 11.1% to 1.81 trillion yen ($11.4 billion), with the trade surplus shrinking 31.7% to 690.6 billion yen ($4.4 billion).

In July, Tokyo and Washington announced a trade deal lowering tariffs to 15% from a feared 25%.

Crucially, that reduction included the auto sector, an industry that accounted for 30% of Japanese exports to the United States in 2024.

However, Tokyo officials and business leaders have said the 15% tariffs are still high compared with the period before the second Trump administration.

Japan's overall trade account logged a deficit of 2.65 trillion yen in 2025, its fifth consecutive deficit.

Trump sues JPMorgan, CEO for $5b over alleged debanking
25 Jan 2026;
Source: The Daily Star

US President Donald Trump filed a $5 billion lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase and its CEO Jamie Dimon on Thursday, accusing them of debanking him by closing several of his accounts to further a political agenda.

The lawsuit, filed in a Florida state court in Miami-Dade County, accused the largest US bank of violating its own policies by singling out Trump to ride the “political tide.”

JPMorgan denied that it closes accounts for political or religious reasons.

“While we regret President Trump has sued us, we believe the suit has no merit,” it said. “We respect the President’s right to sue us and our right to defend ourselves.”

Later on Thursday, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One he had not spoken with Dimon about the lawsuit. “You’re not allowed to do what they did,” he said. “So wrong. I don’t know what their excuse would be. Maybe their excuse would be the regulators.”

Trump has also attacked other lenders including Bank of America with allegations of debanking, and recently stirred up industry opposition by demanding a 10 percent cap on credit card interest rates.

Dimon, who has run JPMorgan for two decades and is one of the most influential figures in corporate America, told the World Economic Forum on Wednesday that capping card rates would curb access to credit for many consumers and amount to an “economic disaster.”

At the same time, industry executives have cheered the administration’s push for deregulation, which they say could cut red tape, boost profits and spur economic growth.

Trump accused JPMorgan of violating its principles unilaterally by shutting accounts belonging to him and his hospitality companies.

He also accused Dimon of ordering a malicious “blacklist” to warn other banks about doing business with the Trump Organization and Trump family members, as well as with Trump himself.

“Plaintiffs also suffered extensive reputational harm by being forced to reach out to other financial institutions in an effort to move their funds and accounts, making it clear that they had been debanked,” Trump added.

JPMorgan said it closes accounts that create legal or regulatory risk for the company. “We regret having to do so but often rules and regulatory expectations lead us to do so,” it said. World leaders in government, business, sports, and entertainment attend the America Business Forum in Miami

Shares of JPMorgan closed up 0.5 percent on Thursday and were flat premarket on Friday.

Capital One Financial, another large bank, has sought to dismiss a similar lawsuit filed last March by several Trump plaintiffs, including the president’s son Eric Trump. That lawsuit is still pending.

The White House referred a request for comment to Trump’s private lawyer, who had no immediate comment.

Banks have faced growing political pressure in recent years, particularly from conservatives who say lenders have for political reasons discriminated against industries such as firearms and fossil fuels.

That pressure has intensified during Trump’s second White House term, with the Republican accusing some banks of refusing to serve him and other conservatives. Banks have denied that allegation.

In December, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a leading bank regulator, said in a report that the nine largest US banks have restricted financial services to certain industries as part of a debanking push.

The regulator did not provide specific examples of wrongdoing but said it had found large banks either refused services to some industries or required higher levels of scrutiny from 2020 to 2023.

Those affected included oil and gas companies, cryptocurrency firms, tobacco and e-cigarette manufacturers, and firearm companies, it said. The regulator found that many banks publicly disclosed restrictive policies, often tied to environmental, social and governance goals.

Many banks have since curtailed such practices and the regulator said it is continuing to review thousands of debanking complaints.

Last year, JPMorgan said it was cooperating with inquiries from government agencies and other entities regarding its policies in light of the Trump administration’s push against alleged debanking.

US regulators have also examined whether their own supervisory policies discouraged banks from serving certain corporate customers.

Last year, federal bank regulators said they would stop policing banks based on so-called reputational risk, under which supervisors could penalize institutions for activities that were not explicitly illegal but could expose them to negative publicity or costly litigation.

Some banks viewed the reputational risk standard as vague and subjective, giving supervisors wide discretion.

The industry has also urged regulators to update anti-money laundering rules, which can force banks to close suspicious accounts without explanation.