Summit Alliance Port Limited, one of the country's leading inland container terminals and logistics operators, reported a 26% decline in export freight earnings in the July-March period of FY26, weighed down by weaker export container handling and a challenging global trade environment.

In its unaudited financial statement for the first nine months of the fiscal year, the company said export freight income fell to Tk310.64 crore. The downturn in exports dragged overall performance, with consolidated revenue – covering both export and import container freight and handling – falling 18% to Tk499.88 crore.

Net profit declined sharply by 31% to Tk38.27 crore, while consolidated earnings per share dropped to Tk1.62 at the end of March 2026, compared to Tk2.34 in the same period of the previous fiscal year.

The company attributed the weaker performance largely to its subsidiary Container Transportation Services Limited (CTSL), which faced lower cargo volumes, higher operating costs, and pressure from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

It also cited subdued export activity and heightened competition in the freight forwarding segment, which compressed margins despite efforts to expand services.

The trend aligns with broader export weakness, as Export Promotion Bureau data showed national export earnings fell nearly 5% to $35.39 billion in the same period.

CTSL remains the group's main revenue driver, leaving overall performance highly sensitive to export volumes and global trade conditions.

In January 2025, the company entered a strategic partnership with Germany's Hellmann Worldwide, which subscribed to 3.33 lakh CTSL shares at Tk66.50 each to strengthen regional logistics capacity. However, the benefits have yet to offset weaker demand and lower freight rates.

Yesterday, Summit Alliance Port shares fell 1.75% to Tk50.40 on the Dhaka Stock Exchange.

People pay through their nose as the persistent Gulf turmoil impacts Bangladesh's consumer-price indices with overall inflation having hit a near-double-digit high at 9.04 per cent in latest official count.
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Official data released Wednesday for the past month shows the most significant pressure comes from transport sub-sector, where inflation jumped to 9.31 per cent in April in a sharp rise from the 7.47-percent rate recorded in March.

This 1.84-percentage-point surge in the major livelihood parameter is largely fuelled by higher costs for imported fuels amid the Mideast mayhem, as evident from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) statistics.

The government last month increased prices of all types of fuel oils and gas for the domestic market, which heated up the inflation, analysts say.

Meanwhile, the overall inflation rate in April increased by 0.33-percentage points to 9.04 per cent from 8.71 per cent in March this year, the official data show.

In the same period last year (April 2025), the inflation rate was reported 9.17 per cent, before a little downturn.

Since the consumer price index (CPI) in transportation sub-sector has risen significantly, the rate of inflation in the non-food sector climbed to 9.57 per cent in April from 9.09 per cent in March.

On the other hand, the inflation on food account also increased slightly to 8.39 per cent last month from 8.24 per cent in the previous month of March, according to the BBS data.

Inflation rates both in rural and urban areas marked rise in the past month of April.

In villages, the rate increased by 0.33-percentage points to 9.05 per cent in April from 8.72 per cent in March.

In the urban areas also the rate increased by 0.34-percentage points to 9.02 per cent last month from 8.68 per cent recorded in March.

Despite the monthly point-to-point increase, the 12-month moving average inflation showed a slight downtrend, settling at 8.59 per cent for the period of May 2025 to April 2026, compared to 10.21 per cent for the same period a year earlier.

This suggests that while recent shocks are pushing prices up, the long-term average has been cooling compared to the previous year.

The latest data from the BBS reveal a widening gap between the cost of living and worker earnings.

The national inflation of 9.04 per cent in April outweighs Wage Rate Index (WRI) growth at 8.16 per cent. This suggests that, on average, the purchasing power of low-paid skilled and unskilled labourers is being eroded as price increases (especially in transport and non-food items) are outstripping wage hikes.

Meanwhile, the WRI marked a rise to 8.16 per cent in the past month from 8.09 per cent in March, the data show.

The BBS breakdown shows wage growth varies significantly across different sectors of the economy. The highest wage growth was recorded at 8.31 per cent in the services sector among the three broad heads.

Despite being the strongest performer (services), it still falls nearly 1.0-percentage-point short of the 9.31 per cent inflation seen in the transport sector that many service workers rely on.

The wages grew by 8.19 per cent in agriculture sector in April, up slightly from 8.11 per cent in March.

In the industrial sector, the slowest growth was recorded at 8.09 per cent in April, making industrial workers among the most vulnerable to the recent spike in non-food inflation (9.57 per cent).

Wage growth also shows geographical disparities, with Dhaka Division reporting an increase of 8.64 per cent while Barishal lagging behind at 8.04 per cent.

Bangladesh's trade balance deteriorated significantly during the July-March period of the current fiscal year, driven by a decline in merchandise exports, according to central bank data.
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The Bangladesh Bank, which compiles the balance-of-payments (BoP) data, reported that the trade deficit stood at US$19.2 billion during the period under review.

Export earnings fell by 4.4 per cent year-on-year to $32.3 billion, while import payments rose by 4.6 per cent to $51.6 billion, the data showed.

Imports of fuel and fertiliser increased sharply.

Petroleum imports surged by 54.1 per cent and fertiliser imports by 40 per cent, partly reflecting price pressures linked to tensions and attacks involving Iran, the US and Israel in the Middle East, although a ceasefire is now in place.

Meanwhile, the current account deficit (CAD) narrowed on the back of strong remittance inflows during the period. The deficit stood at $397 million during July-March, compared with a deficit of $878 million in the same period a year earlier.

Remittances grew by 20.3 per cent to $26.2 billion, providing support to the external balance.

The financial account, another component of the BoP, recorded a surplus of $3.8 billion during the period, largely due to trade credit inflows.

Trade credit posted a surplus of $3.2 billion, compared with a deficit of $1.6 billion a year earlier.

Economists said the improvement in the current account position was mainly driven by robust remittance growth, while the financial account surplus reflected increased reliance on trade credit.

Dr Zahid Hussain, an independent economist, told The Financial Express that import payments rose partly due to trade credit arrangements, contributing to positive financial inflows.

According to him, some export proceeds were repatriated during the period, further supporting the balance of payments.

"Overall, the balance of payments situation remains favourable for the country at this moment," he said.

The overall balance of payments recorded a surplus of $3.7 billion during the period under review, compared with a deficit of $1.1 billion a year earlier.

The dollar fell against most major currencies on Wednesday after the US signalled it may be nearing a deal with Iran, while the Japanese yen suddenly jumped to a more than two-month high as markets braced for ​another round of official buying from Tokyo.

The yen rose by as much as 1.8 percent earlier in a swift ‌move that left the dollar at a session low of 155, around its weakest since February 24. The dollar had earlier broadly strengthened against a range of currencies before a sudden move lower against the yen, which triggered speculation of another round of intervention.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama ​earlier in the week warned against speculative moves in foreign exchange, after a brief jolt higher in the yen sparked ​speculation Tokyo had again intervened to support the currency.

“As I have said repeatedly, we will take decisive measures against speculative moves, in accordance with the statement signed between Japan and the United States last year,” Katayama told ​reporters after the Asian Development Bank’s annual meeting in Uzbekistan. The Ministry of Finance of Japan could not be reached immediately for ​comment during a local holiday.

Part of the problem for Japanese authorities in staving off persistent weakness in the yen lies in markets that are beyond their immediate control, such as higher US Treasury yields, which favour the dollar, and oil, CIBC Capital Markets head of G10 FX strategy Jeremy ​Stretch said.

“It’s very tough to get the yen down if oil is going to remain elevated and/or US Treasury yields ​are, in terms of 10-years, you’re nearer 4.4 percent than you are 4.2 percent. So that was always going to be the difficulty the Japanese were ‌going to have.

The fact that we’ve been able to get it back to 156.5, given the fact that we’ve still got 10-year yield at 4.42 percent and oil is still closer to $100 than 75, I guess, is some degree of success,” he said.

Most other major currencies also extended gains as dollar weakness persisted, after President Donald Trump said he would briefly pause an operation to ​help escort ships through the Strait ​of Hormuz, citing progress towards ⁠a comprehensive agreement with Iran.

That came shortly after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday that the United States had achieved its objectives in its military campaign against Iran.

HSBC's Bangladesh operations posted a 23% decline in net profit in 2025, weighed down by higher provisions against rising classified loans and lower income from government treasury investments.

According to the multinational bank's audited financial statements for 2025, net profit after tax stood at Tk823 crore, down significantly from Tk1,086 crore in 2024.

The decline in profit was largely driven by a sharp increase in provisions. HSBC set aside Tk265.96 crore in provisions in 2025, up 149% from the previous year. At the same time, income from treasury bond holdings fell 17% year-on-year.

During the year, the bank's classified loans surged 134% to Tk748.20 crore, accounting for 3.99% of its total loan portfolio.

April 2026 inflation data sends a clear warning signal. According to the latest data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, general point-to-point inflation rose to 9.04% in April, up from 8.71% in March. This means that the expectation of a steady decline in inflation has not yet materialised. Rather, the April figures show that price pressures have increased again.

Food inflation also rose from 8.24% in March to 8.39% in April. At the same time, non-food inflation increased from 9.09% to 9.57%. This suggests that the pressure is not confined to rice, lentils, edible oil, fish, meat, or vegetables. Costs have risen across almost all areas of daily life, including house rent, healthcare, education, transport, clothing, and energy-related expenses.

Both rural and urban areas are experiencing an upward trend in overall inflation. In rural areas, general point-to-point inflation increased from 8.72% in March to 9.05% in April. In urban areas, general inflation also rose from 8.68% in March to 9.02% in April. Numerically, the difference between rural and urban inflation is not very large, but rural inflation is slightly higher. This difference has important social implications. Rural low-income households, small farmers, agricultural labourers, day labourers, and informal workers often have uncertain incomes and very limited savings. As a result, they find it harder to absorb the shock of rising prices.

The internal composition of rural inflation is even more concerning. Rural food inflation rose from 8.02% in March to 8.23% in April. Rural non-food inflation increased from 9.38% to 9.81%. This means that rural households are facing pressure not only from food prices but also from non-food expenses. When the costs of healthcare, education, transport, agricultural inputs, electricity, house repairs, and everyday services rise, the real purchasing power of rural households declines quickly. We often assume that because rural people are connected to food production, they are less affected by food inflation. The reality is different. A large share of rural people are net food buyers. They buy rice, lentils, edible oil, fish, eggs, and vegetables from the market. Therefore, food inflation directly affects them.

Urban inflation is also a serious concern. In urban areas, general inflation increased from 8.68% in March to 9.02% in April. The expenditure pattern of urban households is different from that of rural households. In cities, house rent, transport, education, healthcare, gas and electricity, water, childcare and market-dependent food purchases occupy a large share of household budgets. Urban low-middle-income and working-class people have to buy almost everything from the market. They have little scope for own production or family-based support. Therefore, even a modest rise in food prices, combined with higher rent and service costs, can quickly disrupt the monthly budget. Fixed-salary workers, garment workers, small service-sector workers, rickshaw pullers, shop employees and informal workers are particularly exposed to this pressure. Urban inflation is therefore not only a matter of market prices; it also reflects the growing insecurity of urban life.

In this situation, inflation cannot be treated only as a monetary policy issue. Interest rates, credit growth and money supply management are important, but a large part of Bangladesh's current inflation is linked to supply chains, import costs, the exchange rate, energy prices, market management and inflation expectations. Therefore, a coordinated policy response is needed. The food supply chain must be strengthened. Competition in markets has to be improved. Effective monitoring is required against hoarding and abnormal price hikes. Import decisions must also be timely, so that signals of shortage do not emerge in the market. At the same time, inefficiencies in agricultural production, storage, transport, and wholesale market systems must be reduced.

The highest priority should be protecting low-income people. Rural and urban poor households, lower-middle-income groups, fixed-income earners, and informal workers are the main victims of inflation. Social protection programmes need to be made more targeted. Food support, subsidised essential goods, cash transfers and employment-based assistance should be expanded in line with actual needs. In urban areas, subsidised food distribution, support for the urban poor facing rental pressure, and special protection programmes for low-income workers are also needed. Wage growth must also be monitored so that it does not remain below inflation. In the end, inflation is not merely a statistic. It means eating less, postponing healthcare, cutting children's education expenses and accepting a lower quality of life.

Dr Selim Raihan is a professor of Economics at Dhaka University and executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modelling (Sanem).

Inflation surged to 9.04% in April, driven by rising costs of both food and non-food items amid oil shocks stemming from the US-Israeli war on Iran.

The rate was 8.71% in March, according to the latest data released by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) today (6 May). In April last year, inflation was 9.17%.

Non-food inflation increased significantly to 9.57% and food inflation reached 8.39% in April, with food prices hitting urban consumers harder than those in villages. Rural households spent more on non-food items compared to those in urban areas.

Overall, inflationary pressures were more intense in rural areas than in towns.

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank Dhaka Office, said the impact of the war in the Middle East has already started affecting inflation in Bangladesh.

According to him, inflation increased in both food and non-food sectors, but the rise in non-food inflation was the sharpest, driven mainly by fuel and transport costs.

He explained that higher transport costs were reflected in the market very quickly, even before any official increase in fuel prices. As a result, inflationary pressure in the transport sector appeared earlier.

On the other hand, since government-administered fuel prices are used in official statistics, the actual impact has not yet been fully reflected in the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

"Part of the real inflation has still not appeared in official statistics because of delayed price adjustments, which may be described as 'repressed inflation'," Zahid Hussain said.

That means consumers are already paying higher prices than what is fully reflected in the official data.

"April's nearly 9% inflation rate does not fully capture the real picture, as the delayed price adjustments are likely to be reflected more clearly in the coming months, especially in May data," he added.

Zahid Hussain observed similar trends in both urban and rural areas, where higher transport costs were the main source of inflation, followed by the impact of fuel prices.

He said the main cause of the rising trend in inflation was soaring global commodity prices.

Not only fuel, but the prices of almost all imported goods have increased due to higher shipping costs, rising insurance premiums and global supply disruptions.

As a result, higher production and supply chain costs have accelerated inflation further.

Wage growth trails behind inflation

According to BBS data, the national wage growth rate increased to 8.16% in April from 8.09% in March.

Although wages increased, they remained below the inflation rate for the 50th consecutive month.

Mustafa K Mujeri, executive director of the Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development, said the Middle East-centred conflict is affecting inflation in Bangladesh.

"At the same time, the country's production sector has not yet fully regained momentum."

Instead, he explained, higher production costs, transport expenses and import costs have put pressure on the supply system, with increased fuel prices intensifying the pressure.

Mujeri warned high inflation might continue in the coming months as the current economic trend was not favourable for reducing inflation.

According to him, global markets remain unstable, making a quick fall in inflation unlikely.

Natural disasters, especially possible floods, could also disrupt agricultural production and create supply shortages, he added.

The pressure is more intense on low-income people, as wage growth remains below inflation, reducing their real income and purchasing power.

In this context, Mujeri stressed the need to strengthen social safety net programmes, increase food and cash assistance, create jobs, raise investment and reopen closed factories.

He also called for ensuring food security for poor people in the budget.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) is set to launch a dedicated web-based order collection system enabling the creation and redemption of open-end mutual fund units— an initiative currently absent in Bangladesh.

With the platform integrated into the alternative trading board, investors will be able to directly place buy and sell orders, subject to approval by brokerage houses.

Nuzhat Anwar, managing director of the DSE, said, "We are expecting to launch the Mutual Fund Platform by 30 June 2026. We believe this will help retail investors under a collective investment plan as per international best practice. We will arrange investor awareness programs for the product close to our launch date. We expect to launch the platform by June this year."

In a letter to the stock market regulator, seeking permission in August last year, the DSE said the initiative aims to modernise and streamline critical aspects of the capital market ecosystem in line with international best practices, reduce operational inefficiencies, mitigate systemic risk, and improve the overall investor experience.
After securing the regulator's approval, the premier bourse has moved to set up the platform, floating a tender to procure and develop a web-based order collection system for the creation (buy) and redemption (sell) of units of open-end mutual funds on the alternative trading board (ATB).

The DSE has invited professional software development companies, system integrators, and solution providers to develop, supply, implement, integrate, and provide long-term support for the system.

The bourse said the platform will enable retail and institutional investors to conveniently buy and sell open-end mutual fund units through desktop terminals and mobile applications via stock brokers (TREC holders/panel brokers).

The solution must ensure seamless integration with the DSE, TREC holders, Central Depository Bangladesh Limited (CDBL), asset management companies (AMCs), custodians, and other stakeholders, it said.

The DSE has asked interested bidders to submit separate technical and financial proposals – either in sealed envelopes or as per updated submission guidelines – by 12 May.

According to a letter from the DSE, currently no dedicated exchange platform exists for the online creation and redemption system of open-end mutual fund units. Neighbouring countries operate web-based open-end mutual fund platforms for creation and redemption."

The letter also said that stakeholders' feedback indicates a strong consensus that the platform will enhance retail participation, increase daily turnover and simplify the redemption process.

For that, the bourse sought a regulatory amendment required to issue an order mandating that all open-end mutual funds be enlisted and traded through stock exchanges within a stipulated timeline.

Nuzhat Anwar said, after securing the regulatory approval, we have already begun to implement the platform as tender floated.

As per the data of the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC), currently, in the country, there are 140 mutual funds approved by the commission.

Of the funds, 36 mutual funds are closed-end with a market value of Tk4,481.26 crore and all the closed-end mutual funds are listed on the bourses.

A closed-end fund is an investment vehicle that raises capital by issuing a fixed number of shares at its inception and then invests that capital in financial assets such as stocks and bonds.

Also, there are 104 open-end mutual funds with an accumulated value of Tk8,593.5 crore.

Open-ended funds allow continuous buying/selling at net asset value (NAV) with no fixed share count, offering high liquidity and direct transactions with the fund manager.

Stocks leapt, oil prices sank and the dollar dropped in the Asian morning on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump touted "great progress" towards a "final agreement" with Tehran, while momentum in AI-driven trades accelerated.

Trump said he would briefly pause an operation escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of global oil and has been blockaded by Iran since late February, triggering a global energy crisis.

The news sent Brent crude tumbling 1.2% to $108.51 per barrel, while S&P 500 e-mini futures were up 0.3%.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan jumped 2.3% to a fresh record, led by a 5.1% surge in South Korea's Kospi, clearing the 7,000 mark for the first time.

"Markets embraced a sense of calm and stability overnight, with the risk of escalation in the Middle East conflict viewed as having diminished after US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth ensured the ceasefire was still in place, despite the US and Iran trading blows yesterday," analysts from Westpac wrote in a research note.

"This put some wind in the sails for risk sentiment, supporting a rebound in equities across the US and Europe at the same time as crude oil prices partially unwound yesterday's climb."

Stocks on Wall Street hit fresh records on Tuesday as the S&P 500 rose 0.8% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1%.

"Investors bought and continue to add to positioning in the 2026 winners," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd in Melbourne. "There has been some buying in S&P 500 materials stocks, but it's tech that continues to attract the bulk of flows, notably in Apple and the memory plays."

As the Seoul market reopened after a holiday, Samsung Electronics jumped 12%, topping a $1 trillion market value, overtaking Berkshire Hathaway and closing in on Walmart.

"Due to the capex spend we are seeing from hyperscalers in the US, the earnings growth trajectory for sectors such as semiconductors, tech hardware, industrials and materials in Asia exceeds anything I have seen in a long-time," said Rushil Khanna, head of equity investments for Asia at Ostrum, an affiliate of Natixis Investment Managers.

"This capex is leading to material value creation in Asia as the provider of the picks and shovels to the AI ecosystem," he said.

Shares in Advanced Micro Devices jumped 16.5% in extended trading as the company forecast second-quarter revenue above Wall Street expectations on Tuesday, helped by keen demand for its dead-centre chips as cloud-computing companies accelerate spending on AI infrastructure.

In the foreign exchange markets, the US dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, snapped a three-day winning streak, nudging down 0.1% to 98.236.

The euro stood at $1.1724 and sterling was at $1.3577, both up around 0.3% so far on the day.

The Australian dollar fetched $0.7227, rising about 0.6% to the highest since June 2022, buoyed by improved risk appetite and underpinned by a third straight interest-rate hike a day earlier.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond was flat at 4.424%.

Gold was 1.2% higher at $4,609.59. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was down 0.9% at $80,881.12, while ether was off 1% at $2,358.09.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has projected that oil prices will average $96 per barrel in 2026 -- well above the pre-war average of $69 -- as key infrastructure has been damaged and, despite the ceasefire in the Middle East, transit through the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed.

Prices may moderate to $80 on average in 2027, according to an updated ADB analysis on the impact of the Middle East conflict on Asia and the Pacific, released yesterday.

Fertiliser prices -- especially those of urea, a key crop nutrient -- have also shot up, fuelling inflationary expectations and increasing fiscal pressure on nations, particularly energy- and fertiliser-importing ones like Bangladesh.

The multilateral lender has lowered its 2026 growth projections for developing Asia and the Pacific, saying the conflict has proved far more disruptive than its early stabilisation scenarios suggested.

Regional GDP growth is now forecast at 4.7 percent, a 0.4 percentage-point drop, while the inflation estimate has been raised by 1.6 percentage points to 5.2 percent.

“Transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely impaired despite the April ceasefire. Physical damage to energy facilities across the Gulf will prolong supply disruptions beyond the end of the conflict -- with some repairs expected to take three to five years,” said ADB Chief Economist Albert Park.

“A new reference scenario incorporating persistent supply constraints points to materially slower growth and higher inflation; a severe downside scenario implies substantially larger impacts,” he said at a media briefing on the sidelines of the ADB Annual Meeting in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

The four-day event concluded yesterday with ADB President Masato Kanda terming the conference a success at the closing ceremony.

Park said impacts depend on imported energy dependency, fertiliser import exposure, and other economy-specific factors. Across subregions, the largest 2026 growth downgrades have occurred in South Asia, the Pacific, and developing Southeast Asia.

The Manila-based agency now projects a 5.7 percent growth in South Asia in 2026, down from an earlier forecast of 6.3 percent. Inflation in the subregion is projected to rise to 7.6 percent, up 2.6 percentage points from the previous estimate.

“Markets price in persistently tighter conditions, not a quick reversal.”

The ADB said supply disruptions have exerted upward pressure on the prices of non-oil commodities, particularly fertilisers.

“Prices are surging,” Park said, adding that urea marked the largest non-energy price shock and that it has a direct impact on food costs.

South Asia sources 35 percent of its fertiliser from the Middle East. Bangladesh is a major importer of fertiliser from the Gulf nations.

“Food prices typically follow within one quarter,” he added.

Responding to a question on Bangladesh’s economic growth, he said the country-specific numbers for Bangladesh based on the reduced growth forecast will be released by the end of this month.

“So, the regional one is an indicator; I think Bangladesh’s growth will probably be a bit lower. They would have more headwinds, in effect, than the rest of the South Asia average,” he said.

“But I think you should wait; our next Asian Development Outlook will have a much more thorough assessment of Bangladesh, and that report will be coming out in July or early August,” he said.

To tackle the challenges, the ADB suggested avoiding blanket fuel subsidies and excise tax cuts.

High-income households consume more energy, and subsidies are fiscally very costly if prices stay elevated, he said.

“Policymakers should target support to vulnerable households, maintain monetary credibility, and accelerate investment in energy resilience,” he said.

Park suggested targeted cash transfers to protect vulnerable households and ensure fiscal space. A data-dependent monetary policy is needed.

“This is a supply shock, not a demand shock. Monitor inflation expectations and second-round effects before tightening; avoid choking growth unnecessarily,” he added.

Bangladesh’s top garment exporters association has offered to help the United States define the rules governing a zero-tariff benefit tied to the use of US cotton and man-made fibre (MMF).

The offer was made as US officials are yet to clarify how the facilities -- stated in the bilateral trade deal signed in February amid reciprocal tariff pressure -- will work in practice.

Members of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) made the proposal at a meeting in Dhaka yesterday with a delegation from the United States Trade Representative’s (USTR) office, led by Assistant USTR for South and Central Asia Brendan Lynch.

The delegation arrived on May 5 and is holding meetings through May 7.

Under Article 5.3 of the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART), the US committed to a mechanism allowing certain Bangladeshi textile and apparel goods to enter the American market at a zero reciprocal tariff rate, provided they are made from imported US cotton or MMF.

“We sought clarity on the whole issue of using American cotton and its benefits from the USTR officials at the meeting,” said Faisal Samad, a BGMEA director who attended the meeting.

According to industry insiders, two interpretations are currently circulating among exporters.

One holds that the zero tariff would apply only to the portion of a garment’s value attributable to US-sourced inputs. Since fabric and fibre typically account for 70 to 80 percent of a finished garment’s cost, that would mean the remaining tariff -- either the 10 percent universal rate or the 19 percent reciprocal rate set for Bangladesh -- would apply only to the rest.

The other reading is that duty-free access would cover the entire garment if US cotton or MMF were used in production.

Exporters also raised questions about traceability -- how authorities would verify that a garment was made using US inputs -- and about whether tariff treatment would differ depending on whether raw cotton or processed fibre and fabric were sourced from the US.

The USTR delegation said they are working on the modalities and will share updates, Samad said. BGMEA offered to cooperate in developing those rules.

Around 40 percent of Bangladeshi garment exporters currently use US upland cotton, primarily for high value-added products.

After a separate meeting with the USTR team yesterday, Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, the prime minister’s finance and planning adviser, said Bangladesh’s priority is expanding its market concentration in the US and developing new export categories beyond garments.

He noted Bangladesh wants further consultation meetings with the US on the agreement.

Stating that currently, Bangladeshi garment items are dominating in the US market, he said, “Commercial, health and education and humanity issues may also be discussed with the US when the bilateral discussions take place between the two countries.”

Bangladesh also wants expansion of strategic assistance from the US in agricultural cooperation and science research, he added.

Earlier on Tuesday, speaking after a meeting with the USTR team, Commerce Minister Khandaker Abdul Muktadir said the government intends to make full use of the agreement.

“It is a reality, and we want to make the best use of it to expand the country’s trade and investment,” he said.

US goods trade with Bangladesh totalled an estimated $11.8 billion in 2025.

American imports from Bangladesh reached $9.5 billion -- up 13.3 percent from 2024 -- while US exports to Bangladesh were $2.3 billion.

The resulting trade deficit stood at $7.1 billion, a 17.9 percent increase from the previous year. Garments account for 86 percent of Bangladesh’s exports to the US.

The liquidation of six troubled non-bank financial institutions, a decision taken by the interim government on the central bank's recommendation, will not proceed this fiscal year as the current government has been unable to allocate the Tk5,600 crore set aside to reimburse depositors, officials said.

The delay has driven those depositors onto the streets. Today (6 May), more than a hundred of them gathered in silent protest outside the Bangladesh Bank headquarters, their faces covered with black cloth.

Their demand was straightforward: an immediate, realistic, and actionable roadmap for returning their money, in line with the July 2026 deadline cited by former governor Ahsan H Mansur.

"A clear timeline was given. We are holding them to it," one protester said.

Responding to queries, central bank spokesperson Arief Hossain Khan said the liquidation decision had been made during the interim administration, when assurances were given that necessary funds would be provided to reimburse depositors. "Based on that assurance, the former governor announced the liquidation."

According to him, the current government is prioritising spending on its political programmes, including social support initiatives like Family Card, Farmer's Card, etc, leaving insufficient fiscal space to finance the liquidation process at present.

"If the government is given some time and funding is secured, the liquidation process will begin, and depositors will then receive their money," he said.

The spokesperson noted that the financial condition of the six to seven institutions was so weak that revival was no longer feasible, prompting the decision to proceed directly with liquidation rather than merger.

The central bank board had approved the liquidation of six institutions on 27 January. The entities are FAS Finance, Premier Leasing, Fareast Finance, Aviva Finance, People's Leasing and International Leasing, all of which have non-performing loan ratios ranging from 75% to 99%.

A senior official from the central bank's Bank Resolution Department said preparations for liquidation are complete, but implementation hinges entirely on government funding.

He added that discussions have been held with the governor, who indicated that while all six institutions may not be liquidated simultaneously, the process will move forward gradually. However, no assurance has been given that it will be completed within the current fiscal year.

An official from the Department of Financial Institutions and Markets, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the government should clearly communicate its decision, as depositors continue to seek answers without receiving any definitive timeline.

He described cases of severe hardship, including one depositor who had sought assistance while undergoing medical treatment but later died due to a lack of funds.

Depositors demand urgent action

An alliance representing more than 12,000 depositors of the six institutions has formally urged the central bank to take immediate steps to facilitate the return of their long-stuck funds.

In a memorandum submitted to the governor, the platform said depositors have been facing acute financial hardship, mental distress and a humanitarian crisis as their savings have remained locked for nearly seven years.

"Many depositors are being deprived of treatment for critical illnesses such as cancer, kidney disease and heart conditions due to a lack of funds," the memorandum said, adding that several have died without receiving necessary medical care.

The alliance called on the central bank, as the regulator, to take urgent action and ensure a clear roadmap for repayment within the previously announced timeframe.

Protesters said many had invested retirement benefits and proceeds from the sale of land in these institutions to support household expenses, but have been unable to access their savings for years.

"After waiting for seven years, we still have not received our money. Our patience has run out, which is why we have taken to the streets," one depositor said.

Sector under strain

The broader non-bank financial sector remains under significant stress, with the central bank identifying 20 out of 35 institutions as distressed.

These troubled institutions collectively hold loans worth Tk25,808 crore, of which Tk21,462 crore are classified as non-performing, representing 83.16%. Against this, the value of collateral stands at Tk6,899 crore.

In contrast, the remaining 15 relatively stable institutions reported a non-performing loan ratio of 7.31%, generating profits of Tk1,465 crore last year and maintaining a capital surplus of Tk6,189 crore.

Deposits in the 20 distressed institutions amount to Tk22,127 crore, including approximately Tk4,971 crore in individual deposits. Central bank officials believe that this amount may be required initially to support liquidation and restructuring efforts.

The regulator has also assured that employees of the affected institutions will receive all benefits in accordance with service rules following liquidation.

Bangladesh needs to move up the global value chain (GVC), with fresh policy measures aiming to support this by promoting diversification and higher value-added activities, according to a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) study.

The study on GVCs, growth, and inequality was released yesterday.

From a trade and GVC perspective, Bangladesh has become heavily dependent on readymade garment (RMG) exports, with apparel making up over 80 percent of total exports, while the share of textiles has declined.

The country’s participation in the textiles and textile products GVC is also concentrated in low-value downstream work, mainly assembling and finishing imported materials.

According to ADB data, compared with other major textile exporters in developing Asia and the Pacific, Bangladesh has a relatively low ratio of forward to backward GVC linkages.

This shows a strong dependence on imported fabrics, yarns, dyes and other inputs, with limited involvement in higher-value stages of production.

Strong specialisation in textiles and textile products has helped Bangladesh absorb labour and boost exports, but it has also limited structural upgrading. As a result, the country has joined GVCs but has not moved up within them.

This is reflected in weak forward linkages and limited knowledge transfer from global lead firms, which restrict improvements in processes, products and functions.

GVC participation rates are also below the global average, showing less integration across different stages of production compared with peer exporters.

In addition, the industrial base outside textiles and textile products remains narrow, limiting value-added diversification and the development of local suppliers.

The report also said Bangladesh faces challenges in its GVC participation. Although exports and production in the RMG sector continue to grow, this expansion is not translating into stronger employment growth.

Wages have also started to rise since Bangladesh was reclassified as a lower-middle-income country in 2015. This has raised concerns about a possible “middle-income trap,” where economies struggle to move from middle- to high-income status.

Preferential market access, such as the European Union’s Everything but Arms (EBA) scheme, has supported the growth and integration of the RMG sector. However, recent changes in rules of origin are limiting opportunities to upgrade in certain product areas, including knitwear.

Participation in GVCs, especially in the apparel sector, has been central to Bangladesh’s export-led growth. It has also supported inclusive development by creating jobs -- particularly for women -- and reducing poverty.

The sector now accounts for most export earnings and employs around 4.5 million people, more than half of them women. Despite this progress, concerns remain about continued reliance on low wages and poor working conditions.

Efforts have been made to improve safety and sustainability in the industry, including the Accord on Fire and Building Safety in Bangladesh and the Alliance for Bangladesh Worker Safety.

These were introduced after the Rana Plaza collapse in 2013, which killed more than 1,100 people in a building housing five garment factories. However, the report said these efforts are still not complete.

“Bangladesh has done very well in garments, but that is a very labour-intensive activity with little upgrading to higher value-added work,” said ADB Chief Economist Albert Park, speaking at a media briefing on the sidelines of the 59th Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors of ADB in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, which concluded yesterday.

He added that Bangladesh should look for opportunities to move up within GVCs.

“And also, for Bangladesh, there is such a concentration in this one export sector that it is very risky for the economy if something unexpected occurs that really affects that sector, as we have seen in the past,” Park said.

He added that Bangladesh should diversify into other sectors and allow easier import of inputs without tariffs.

“The same kind of treatment that readymade garments get should be extended to other sectors to expand opportunities,” he said. “And meanwhile, really think about opportunities to upgrade.”

Neil Foster-McGregor, principal economist at ADB, presenting the main findings of the report, said production processes are becoming increasingly capital-intensive.

He added that geopolitics and rising sustainability demands will reshape GVCs.

He said future competitiveness will depend on resilience, sustainability and firm capabilities, not just low labour costs.

Listed private power producers are beginning to absorb a shock that is set to deepen as the government pivots away from costly rental and furnace oil-based plants toward LNG, coal, and renewable energy.

The companies-except for Shahjibazar Power Co and Energypac Power Generation-witnessed a fall in revenue in the third quarter to March of FY26, against the backdrop of the government's unwillingness to renew power purchase contracts upon expiry. This led to partial utilisation of the plants. Meanwhile, some of these companies saw their finance costs rise, further eroding profits.Despite the decline in revenue, however, many of the companies posted higher profits in the third quarter of FY26 compared to the same quarter of the previous year, as they received income from subsidiaries or associate companies. In some cases, the cost of goods sold and finance costs were shown to be lower without any explanation.

Overall, listed companies with older furnace oil-based plants are struggling more than non-listed ones operating efficient gas or LNG-based facilities, analysts said.

Sector leader United Power Generation & Distribution Company Ltd. posted a notable decline in earnings on the back of lower electricity sales and higher finance costs.

Industry insiders said gas price hikes without corresponding tariff adjustments, along with delayed payments from the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB), further squeezed margins. Bangladesheconomic report

Summit Power Limited showed only marginal improvement from a weak base, as several of its plants remained shut following deal expiries. The company has increasingly been operating under a "no electricity, no payment" model, significantly reducing its capacity payment income.

Khulna Power Company Limited also faces structural challenges, as some of its major plants remain inactive following contract expiry, limiting its revenue base.

Smaller player GBB Power Ltd. also remains under pressure, mainly due to maintenance costs.

Energypac Power Generation, which belongs to the energy sector on the bourses but is no longer engaged in producing electricity, sank deeper into losses due to high borrowing costs and weak performance. It now provides power engineering solutions.

Sector insiders said the core challenge now lies in the transition from guaranteed returns in the form of capacity charge payments to performance-based earnings. The government's ongoing energy policy shift has accelerated this transition.

As a result, analysts expect continued divergence in earnings performance, with newer and more efficient plants gaining ground, while older, contract-dependent assets face declining profitability.

United Power Generation & Distribution Company

The leading listed private sector power producer reported a 35 per cent decline in profit in the January-March third quarter of FY26 to Tk 2.76 billion, compared to the corresponding period last year, due to lower production levels.

In the quarter, the company's revenue shrank nearly 30 per cent to Tk 6.74 billion, according to a disclosure.

Apart from dwindling profitability, the company's cash generation has also fallen due to collection delays caused by external macroeconomic factors.

Summit Power Limited

The power producer lost one-fifth of its revenue in the January-March quarter of FY26, falling to Tk 6.5 billion. Despite the reduction in revenue, Summit Power reported a more than 11 per cent jump in net profit, supported by a decline in the cost of production.

However, no explanation has been provided as to how the cost of production fell 9 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter to March this year.

Shahjibazar Power Co.

This power producer reported strong performance, mainly driven by income from sister concerns.

Khulna Power Company Limited

It earned no revenue in the quarter, yet reported profits by relying on income from its associate company.

GBB Power Ltd.

It had no revenue income but reported positive earnings in Q3 of FY26, though lower than in the same quarter of the previous year, based on non-operating income.

Energypac Power Generation

This private sector power company reported a larger loss this year as its finance costs increased threefold.

Doreen Power Generations and Systems Limited

Doreen Power Generations also sustained a decline in revenue but secured profit growth through reduced finance and production costs.

Baraka Patenga Power Limited and Baraka Power Limited

Most of the plants of the two companies have remained shut, but their associate companies, which are also power producers, generated moderate revenue.
Baraka Patenga's cost of goods sold was Tk 66 per Tk 100 of revenue in Q3 of FY25, which was drastically reduced to Tk 57 per Tk 100 of revenue in Q3, FY26. The company also reported lower general and administrative expenses year-on-year in the quarter.

Baraka Power also reported lower cost of goods sold and reduced finance costs, which helped increase net profit.

The government has moved to deepen energy cooperation with India by proposing a government-to-government (G2G) refining arrangement aimed at ensuring a stable supply of petroleum products as global markets remain volatile.

In a letter dated 16 April 2026 and marked urgent, the Energy and Mineral Resources Division under the power, energy and mineral resources ministry requested the foreign ministry to initiate diplomatic engagement with the Indian government.

The communication, addressed to the foreign secretary and copied to the director general of the South Asia wing, a source at the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation told The Business Standard.

Foreign ministry officials said the request has already been conveyed to the Indian High Commission in Dhaka, although no response has yet been received.

The proposal comes amid growing concern over fuel supply security, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Proposed tolling arrangement

At the centre of the initiative is a tolling model under which crude oil owned or financed by Bangladesh would be processed in Indian refineries, with Bangladesh paying refining fees and associated logistics costs.

The Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) has been designated as the implementing agency and will lead technical and commercial negotiations once formal engagement begins. Officials said the proposal requires priority consideration given its importance to national energy security.

When contacted by TBS, an official from the South Asia wing of the foreign ministry declined to comment, saying the matter involves two countries and is subject to confidentiality.

Strategic rationale

Officials say the move reflects structural limitations in Bangladesh's domestic refining capacity. The country relies heavily on Eastern Refinery Limited, which remains constrained in both scale and technological capability.

With demand for petroleum products rising across power generation, transport, agriculture and industry, the gap between domestic refining capacity and consumption has widened.

The proposed arrangement with India is therefore being viewed as a strategic effort to diversify supply mechanisms without requiring immediate large-scale investment in domestic refining upgrades. India's extensive and technologically advanced refining infrastructure, capable of processing crude from diverse sources, makes it a natural partner.

Operational framework

Under the proposed model, designated Indian state-owned oil companies would procure crude oil, potentially in coordination with the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation, and refine it on Bangladesh's behalf. The refined products would then be supplied back to Bangladesh.

The Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation would bear the full cost, including crude procurement, tolling charges and logistics. Officials said this approach would allow Bangladesh to access diversified crude supplies while utilising India's refining capacity.

The Energy and Mineral Resources Division has sought diplomatic facilitation to engage relevant Indian authorities and companies and to establish a platform for technical and commercial discussions.

Benefits and risks

Officials said the arrangement could enhance supply security by reducing exposure to spot market volatility and geopolitical disruptions, while also offering potential cost advantages through access to competitively priced refined fuels.

The model may also improve sourcing flexibility by leveraging India's broad crude procurement network and could be implemented more quickly than expanding domestic refining capacity, which requires substantial investment and long lead times.

However, concerns remain over increased dependence on external infrastructure, which could affect long-term energy sovereignty. Questions around pricing transparency and the need for robust negotiation of tolling fees have also been raised.

Officials noted that reliance on a single regional partner may carry geopolitical risks, particularly during periods of diplomatic strain. There are also concerns that the arrangement could delay investment in domestic refining facilities, including the expansion of Eastern Refinery Limited.

In addition, payments for refining services and logistics in foreign currency could place further pressure on Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserves.

Balancing immediate needs with long-term goals

Energy experts suggest the proposed arrangement could serve as a short- to medium-term solution but should not replace efforts to strengthen domestic refining capacity.

They argue that Bangladesh needs a balanced strategy that combines regional cooperation for immediate supply stability with accelerated investment in local infrastructure, warning that overreliance on external facilities could create long-term vulnerabilities.

The government has also been exploring plans to expand refining capacity and develop energy infrastructure, although progress has been slow due to financing constraints.

US President Donald Trump’s military forays in Venezuela and Iran have weakened Opec more than anyone thought possible just months ago. The White House may view this as a major win, but it may ultimately leave both the US and energy markets worse off.

For decades, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, under its de facto leader Saudi Arabia, has exercised outsized influence over oil markets, dialling output up or ​down by tapping spare capacity to manage prices and defend market share.

That influence has long been eroding as the US and other non-Opec members have gained prominence in the past decades. The percentage of ‌global oil production Opec oversees fell from a peak of about 50 percent in the 1970s to roughly 35 percent last year - and down to around 26 percent in March in the wake of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz at the start of the Iran war.

The United Arab Emirates, the cartel’s fourth‑largest producer, quit the group last week after 60 years to pursue its energy strategy free of Opec production quotas, directly challenging Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbours.

Trump – a long-time critic of Opec – hailed the UAE’s departure as “great,” arguing it would help push oil prices lower.

That may prove true – ​and the US president’s muscular foreign policy may ultimately prove to be the producer group’s undoing. But a weaker Opec is not necessarily good news for consumers or producers – including the US.

Opec has long been a ​lightning rod for US lawmakers who accuse it of acting as a cartel. Trump has levelled blistering criticism at the group for years. In 2018, he accused Opec of being a monopoly that kept oil prices “artificially high.” After returning to office last year, he renewed pressure on the group to keep prices low.

This year, he went far beyond tough talk.

The lightning-fast US raid on Venezuela in January saw long-serving President Nicolas Maduro ​captured and replaced by a Washington‑friendly government. The Trump administration swiftly took control of Venezuela’s oil sector, redirecting most of its exports to the US and opening the country’s vast oil reserves to Western companies.

Venezuela, a founding Opec member in 1960, ​saw its production wither over recent decades to under 1 million barrels per day as a result of mismanagement, chronic underinvestment and US sanctions. That is less than 1 percent of global supplies.

But output is now expected to rebound as fresh capital flows in. While Trump has not objected to Venezuela remaining in Opec, it is hard to imagine Caracas agreeing to curb output under Opec quotas given Washington’s tight oversight of its energy sector.

The US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 triggered a far more dramatic cascade, leaving Opec fractured and largely powerless.

Tehran sealed off the Strait ​of Hormuz within hours of the first strikes, trapping roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies inside the Gulf.

During the 40-day active conflict, dozens of energy facilities were targeted across the Gulf, including tankers, oil and gas ​fields, refineries, pipelines and storage terminals.

The closure and the fighting forced producers to shut in around 10 million bpd, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE diverted some output to ports outside the Gulf.

Washington implemented its own blockade in mid-April while US efforts to break the Iranian blockade have ‌so far done little to revive traffic through the narrow waterway.

Opec’s traditional pillars - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq - found themselves bereft of their main export route, usable spare capacity and operational flexibility.

In short, they were essentially powerless in the face of the biggest oil shock in history.

This, in turn, created an opening for the vast US oil and gas industry - now the world’s largest in terms of production - to rapidly ramp up exports to Asia and Europe, further eroding Opec’s market share and influence.

America’s position is strengthened, but the US oil industry is driven by market forces. It has no equivalent of Opec’s spare capacity to balance the market.

In the absence of a strong Opec, Trump may find this new environment far less manageable than he bargained ​for.

CUSHIONING THE BLOW

Opec has long played a central role in stabilising oil ​markets, using large volumes of low-cost spare capacity, mostly concentrated ⁠in the Gulf, to cushion the impact of wars and weather events.

It also proved effective in times of oversupply, most notably during the onset of the COVID‑19 pandemic. Trump personally urged Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in April 2020 to slash output and ease pressure on US producers. Within days, Opec+ announced its largest-ever production cut.

Without effective market management by Opec, oil markets ​face higher volatility and fewer shock absorbers to deal with disruptions that are likely to become more frequent as geopolitical tensions rise.

For producing nations, including the US, this would likely ​translate into more frequent boom-and-bust cycles, ⁠higher operating costs for oil companies and, ultimately, higher and more volatile prices at the pump.

SHADOW OF ITS FORMER SELF

It is premature to declare Opec dead. Riyadh will almost certainly seek to steady the group in the coming months and lean more heavily on its alliance with Russia to reassert authority.

Politically, though, the Iran war has left Opec in tatters. Iran’s bombardment of critical energy infrastructure belonging to fellow Opec members, particularly Saudi Arabia, combined with its decision to close Hormuz - once unthinkable - has created deep rifts ⁠within the group ​that may take years to heal, if they ever do.

The most notable thing about Sunday’s Opec+ meeting - which includes Russia - was not the announcement of ​a theoretical quota increase. It was the absence of the UAE.

Opec, as the world has long known it, is gone. Trump and others may eventually regret that.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) expects that there will be a “significant growth in demand” from the private sector for its investment services in Bangladesh, a senior official said.

The increased demand is likely as a new government has been in power since February, and things have started to stabilise, said Isabel Chatterton, director general of the Private Sector Operations Department at ADB.

She made the remarks in response to a query at a media briefing on Monday on the sidelines of the four-day ADB Annual Meeting taking place in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

She said Asia and the Pacific face a multi-trillion-dollar infrastructure financing gap, with rising development needs that public finance alone cannot meet.

“Private capital is essential as development needs far exceed public resources,” she said. “Private finance can scale solutions, but policy uncertainty and unmanaged risks still deter investment.”

ADB officials said the multilateral bank helps transform high-potential sectors into investable markets. “We crowd in private capital.”

Under private sector operations, the total outstanding balances and undisbursed commitments of ADB’s private sector transactions in Bangladesh stood at $784.7 million as of 31 December 2024, representing 5.21 percent of ADB’s total private sector portfolio.

ADB’s cumulative public and private sector loan and grant disbursements to Bangladesh amount to $27.48 billion, according to the bank.

“We are very, very active in the Bangladesh market,” she said.

ADB’s private sector operations include financing trade and supply chains, the microfinance programme, and energy projects.

Under the microfinance programme, ADB works through financial entities in Bangladesh, which in turn support microfinance activities.

“So, what we do is we give them loans,” she said. “In our case, it depends on demand from the banks, and it could vary, but very often these credit lines get disbursed very quickly.”

But disbursement slows in the event of unexpected developments in an economy, in what she described as “a natural catastrophe or other unforeseen events.”

Chatterton said demand for loans from the private sector keeps growing, and banks and microfinance institutions know that their sectors are doing very, very well.

She said ADB’s microfinance programme has helped mobilise $800 million for microfinance institutions in Bangladesh.

The ADB, in October last year, signed a $30 million agreement with Envoy Textiles under its sustainability-linked loans programme. Such loans are performance-based instruments tied to measurable indicators, such as rooftop solar capacity and greenhouse gas emissions reductions.

Chatterton said such initiatives are going to incentivise emissions reductions in the textile sector.

“As many of you know, Bangladesh is well known for its thriving garment manufacturing industry. We were very pleased last year to support Envoy through our engagement.”

The National Board of Revenue is planning to expand the value-added tax (VAT) base to the grassroots, netting even small businesses at district, upazila, and village levels to boost overall revenues and raise the country's low tax-to-GDP ratio.

The plan includes introducing a "token" VAT between Tk500 and Tk1,000 on trial basis for small businesses and making Business Identification Number (BIN) mandatory for bank accounts and trade licences, according to officials familiar with the initiative.

The plan, if approved by the finance minister and the prime minister, may be included in the budget for the 2026-27 fiscal year (FY27), they said.

Revenue officials said they are looking to explore revenue potentials at the grassroots where a large portion of economic activity remains outside the formal tax system.

"We have plans to extend VAT coverage down to the rural level," a senior NBR official said on condition of anonymity. "Initially, a small fixed VAT could help smaller traders become accustomed to tax compliance," he added.

Making BIN mandatory for bank accounts and trade licences could be an effective way to bring more businesses into the net, the official said.

During pre-budget talks NBR Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan also hinted at such measures -- introducing a limited VAT for certain segments on a trial basis if necessary.

"To increase VAT collection, we need to both reduce exemptions and expand the base," another NBR official said, referring to IMF's condition for an ongoing loan package to raise tax-GDP ratio, which is among the lowest in the region.

Businesses and economists, while appreciating such initiatives to expand VAT network and include a vast untaxed economy into tax network, have warned that abrupt imposition of blanket VAT for all rural businesses could backfire.

Fahmida Khatun, executive director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue, welcomed the initiative to broaden the VAT base but cautioned against increasing complexity or compliance costs.

"Collecting small amounts of VAT from small businesses is possible, but the government must ensure that the revenue actually reaches the state treasury and does not lead to additional informal payments," she said.

Taskeen Ahmed, president of the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry, pointed out the regional imbalance in revenue collection. Dhaka and Chattogram together account for around 45% of the country's economic activity, yet generate nearly 85% of total revenue.

"This indicates that a large portion of economic activity outside these areas remains untaxed," he said. "However, expanding VAT coverage to the grassroots should be done gradually over four to five years to minimise risks and ensure sustainability."

The proposed "token" VAT system has drawn comparisons with the previously scrapped package VAT regime, under which businesses paid a fixed amount based on estimated turnover.

Former NBR member Md Farid Uddin warned that the earlier system was abandoned due to widespread irregularities and collusion between field officials and businesses.

"If similar methods are reintroduced without strong safeguards, the same problems may resurface," he said.

Revenue drastically fell short of target in March, driven by declines in import duties because of the Middle East war and slow economic activities. However, VAT and income tax revenues saw growth in March.

Nine months' data show overall revenues, though marked 11% growth year-on-year, remained about Tk98,000 crore behind the target for the period. This fiscal year's revenue target is Tk6.97 lakh crore and the NBR is set to face even a bigger target for the next year, prompting it to explore all possible ways to generate more revenues.

Rural economy expands, largely untaxed

The latest Economic Census 2024 by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics estimates the number of economic units in the country at 1.17 crore, up from 78 lakh in 2013. Over 99% of those units are cottage, micro and small businesses, with 74% operating in rural areas.

But the expansion of the rural economy is not reflected in the tax scene. According to NBR data, around 8 lakh businesses currently hold BINs, of which just over 5 lakh submit VAT returns. The NBR chairman believes that at least 1 crore businesses should ideally be brought under VAT registration.

Trade licences are issued by city corporations, municipalities, or union councils, but the revenue authority does not have any consolidated data about how much of those businesses are active. Similarly, while Bangladesh's banking sector holds over 17 crore accounts, there is no clear data on how many are business or current accounts.

The lack of data has prompted the NBR to venture on new initiatives to explore the revenue potentials in the grassroots economic and business activities, officials said.

Concerns over blanket enforcement

Business leaders and tax experts have cautioned against a blanket approach to VAT expansion, warning that it could backfire if not implemented carefully.

Abdul Wahed, former director of the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI) and president of the Chapainawabganj Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said making BIN mandatory for all small businesses could discourage them from renewing trade licences.

"If a fixed VAT system is introduced without proper oversight, it could also increase corruption at the field level."

A former NBR member who worked on VAT policy echoed similar concerns, arguing that while expanding the VAT base is necessary, enforcement mechanisms must be realistic.

"Forcing all businesses to obtain VAT registration as a precondition for basic operations like banking or licensing could create unintended consequences," he said.

"Past experience shows that VAT collection has been growing faster than income tax and customs duties. The focus should also remain on strengthening income tax collection."

Job creation in Bangladesh is failing to keep pace with a rapidly expanding workforce, while nearly half of workers call for short-term technical training and more than half of young people report an urgent need for digital skills, according to the latest International Labour Organization report.Diaspora community forum

The findings also show that though 95.2 per cent of workers in Bangladesh rely on informal learning, the absence of its formal recognition left the vast majority of skills uncertified and undervalued.

The ILO on Tuesday launched its dedicated thematic publication, ‘The World of Work Report: Lifelong Learning and Skills for the Future,’ which painted an elaborate picture of the evolving labour market of Bangladesh.

It highlighted a growing imbalance between labour supply and demand, with new data pointing to significant gaps in job creation, skills development, and access to training.

While the country’s workforce continued to expand rapidly, investment in technical, digital, and work-based learning remained limited, raising concerns over long-term employability and economic resilience.

The report identified several priority areas that Bangladesh must address to future-proof its workforce amid structural shifts driven by digitalisation and the global transition towards greener economies.

Though, it noted, lifelong learning is widely recognised as essential, access to such opportunities remains highly unequal and restricted, particularly for vulnerable groups.

A detailed analysis of survey data revealed a substantial unmet demand for training.

Informal learning, primarily through hands-on experience, dominated the skills landscape, with participation reaching 95.2 per cent.

In contrast, only 12 per cent of the working-age population engaged in formal or non-formal education and training in 2025.

The report highlighted stark inequalities in access to training based on education levels.

Among adults with secondary education, 25.7 per cent participated in learning activities, compared with just 3.7 per cent of those without secondary education, it said.

Occupational differences are equally pronounced, with participation rates the highest among professionals at 36.9 per cent and technicians at 33.5 per cent, but falling sharply to only 3.5 per cent among workers in elementary occupations, the report said.

According to the report, formal sector workers are more than three times as likely to engage in structured learning, with participation at 37.2 per cent, compared with just 10.8 per cent among informal workers.

The survey findings also pointed to a clear demand for practical and future-oriented skills.

It mentioned that nearly 48.5 per cent of respondents identified short-term technical training as their most pressing need, reflecting a preference for targeted, job-relevant learning.

Digital literacy has emerged as a critical priority, particularly among younger workers, with more than half of those aged 15 to 24 expressing a need for training in digital and computer skills, it said.

According to the ILo report, non-formal training in Bangladesh at present is largely occupation-specific, accounting for 57 per cent of such programmes, followed by digital skills at 19.2 per cent and personal development at 15.5 per cent.Diaspora community forum

However, the report stressed that focusing solely on technical competencies was insufficient.

It said that employers were increasingly seeking ‘rounded’ skill profiles that combined technical expertise with cognitive abilities and socio-emotional skills such as communication, teamwork, and leadership.

Work-based learning, the report said, is a highly effective yet underutilised pathway for skills development, noting that around 72 per cent of respondents who had participated in apprenticeships or internships reported improved job performance as a direct result.

Despite this fact, it added, participation remained extremely low, with 93 per cent of respondents stating that they had not engaged in any work-based training over the past three years.

It further underscored the importance of recognising informal learning, given its near-universal prevalence, warning that without systems to validate skills acquired through experience, many workers, particularly those in the informal economy, remained excluded from better employment opportunities due to a lack of certification.

Drawing on worker surveys, online vacancy analysis, institutional data, and a review of 174 studies, the report warned that insufficient investment in inclusive learning systems could widen inequalities both within and between countries.

Aligning skills development with labour market demand, it argued, is essential to ensure that economic transformation benefits all segments of society.

‘Lifelong learning is the bridge between today’s jobs and tomorrow’s opportunities. It is not only about employability and productivity, but also about supporting decent work, driving true innovation, and building resilient societies,’ said ILO director general Gilbert F Houngbo.

The ILO findings also reflected global trends observed in Bangladesh, including increasing demand from employers for a combination of technical and soft skills.

ILO country director for Bangladesh Max Tuñón said that the report’s findings revealed several global trends that were also observed in Bangladesh, including employers’ demand for workers with a combination of technical and soft skills.

‘For that, we need to address the institutional fragmentation and work more closely with the private sector, to deliver quality training that meets the needs of a rapidly changing labour market,’ he said.

By addressing these gaps and aligning skills development systems with evolving labour market needs, the report recommended, Bangladesh could harness its demographic momentum to generate sustainable and decent employment while enhancing productivity and competitiveness across the economy.

High-speed travel across Dhaka seems no distant dream now as a multifaceted elevated expressway over the crammed capital gets the go-ahead after an updated feasibility study that estimates the cost at Tk 430 billion.
FE

The new government has in principle decided to construct the 39-kilometre Dhaka East-West Elevated Expressway (DEWEE) which is to connect three major national highways, including Dhaka-Chottagram with Dhaka-Aricha and Dhaka-Mawa through Narayanganj district, enabling traffic to pass through at a high speed.

Rail, Road Transport and Bridges and Shipping Minister Shaikh Rabiul Alam shared the BNP government's view on the megaproject at a stakeholder workshop organised Tuesday in the city to roll out the findings of the fresh feasibility study on the DEWEE.

State Minister for Road Transport and Bridges Razib Ahsan was also present as special guest.

The minister terms the project "highly necessary to bring positive transformation in the transport system" but lays importance on proper and timely implementation so the high-cost project does not become a burden on the country's economy. Globaleconomy insights

"The nearly 39-kilometre expressway is expected play role in improving regional connectivity by linking Chattogram, Sylhet, Barishal and Khulna divisions with northern regions without requiring traffic to pass through the main Dhaka city," he adds

The updated feasibility study proposes estimated cost of the DEWEE around Tk 430 billion which, however, suggests change in its original design to develop the elevated corridor with high-speed travel of up to 120km/h.

Civil-work part of the DEWEE project would require Tk 220 billion while Tk 140 billion would be needed for land acquisition and rehabilitation as 84 per cent of 804.61 acres of land along the route will be privately owned.

Bangladesh Bridges Authority (BBA) organised the stakeholder workshop at a city hotel after Infrastructure Investment Facilitation Company (IIFC) submitted the report as the transaction adviser to update previous study report.

After the first FS was completed in 2017, the DEWEE project was approved from the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs to develop the corridor under public- private partnership (PPP). Initiative to conduct the fresh study resumed in December 2024. GeographicReference

While presenting the key features of the DWEEE, BBA Chief Engineer Quazi Ferdous said corridor is proposed to be developed from Hemayetpur in Savar to Langalbandh in Narayanganj via Savar, Keraniganj, Fatullah, Siddhirganj and Bandar upazila.

The minister said, "The BNP is committed to developing various infrastructures necessary for the country without misuse of government funds centering causes like delay in land acquisition and implementation."

Chaired by Bridges Division Secretary Mohammad Abdur Rouf, the workshop was also addressed, among others, by Panel of Experts Prof M Shamim Z Bosunia, Roads and Highways Department Chief Engineer Syed Moinul Hasan and Managing Director of Mass Rapid Transit COmpay Ltd Md Shaugatul Alam.

Representatives from different government agencies and private sectors, including Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, shared their views on the feasibility-study findings, lying importance on integration with the 20-year Updating Revised Strategic Transport Plan.

Professor Mohammad Hadiuzzaman stresses setting a standard of the expressway, including elevated one, and suggests planning the expressway corridor in a way to have link with other expressways. Bangladeshbusiness directory

Other stakeholders point out the scope of limiting the inner and outer ring road as per the URSPT as the corridor is suggested over it.