Following a lack of consensus on several conditions during recent talks with the International Monetary Fund in Washington, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury is set to seek Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's guidance on the matter, according to ministry sources.

Sources in the finance ministry said the minister is expected to meet the PM this week, along with members of the delegation who attended the IMF meetings, to brief him on the discussions and decide the next course of action.

Further engagement with the IMF is likely to depend on that guidance.

A senior finance ministry official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Business Standard that the IMF has outlined its position on three major issues that Bangladesh is expected to implement from the next fiscal year: eliminating all forms of tax exemptions, withdrawing government subsidies, and allowing the exchange rate to become fully market-based.

While these conditions featured in negotiations with previous administrations, the IMF is now pressing the BNP government for a concrete implementation plan.

"There is a direct relationship between implementing these measures and an increase in consumer expenses. Therefore, decisions on these issues will have to come from the highest political level of the government," the official said.

"If tax exemptions are removed as per the conditions, the tax burden will fall on consumers, increasing costs and potentially fuelling inflation. Similarly, withdrawing subsidies will raise the prices of goods, further increasing expenses," the official added.

Sources at the NBR said its chairman, Abdur Rahman Khan, who attended the IMF meetings in Washington, held a meeting on Sunday (19 April) with senior officials to review the outcomes and explore ways to reduce tax exemptions and boost revenue collection.

According to the latest data published by the NBR for FY2022-23, the revenue board collected Tk3.25 lakh crore while granting tax exemptions worth approximately Tk2.75 lakh crore – nearly 85% of the total collection.

Meanwhile, in the current fiscal year (FY26), government spending on subsidies, incentives and cash support is estimated at Tk1.12 lakh crore.

Concerns over implementation

Given the prevailing economic landscape, economists argue that the new administration will find it challenging to overhaul all tax exemptions and subsidies, urging the government to adopt a more pragmatic approach.

Mustafizur Rahman, a distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), told TBS that the government needs to strike a balance.

"The government must increase revenue. However, it will be difficult to eliminate all exemptions at once. A realistic decision should be reached through discussions," he said.

"Tax exemptions exist not only in Bangladesh but also in other countries. These exemptions need to be rationalised. If all are removed at the IMF's insistence, it may create distrust among investors who have made investments based on government commitments," he added.

He suggested negotiating a two- to three-year timeline with the IMF. "Failure to reach an understanding with the IMF would send a negative signal. It may become difficult to secure loans from other development partners," Mustafizur added.

An NBR official told TBS that if IMF conditions are implemented, many existing exemptions would no longer be allowed. This could lead to the imposition of VAT on essential services such as agriculture, food, education and healthcare, raising costs for consumers.

Another senior NBR official warned that removing exemptions would bring several key sectors under the tax net, adding that even remittances could potentially be taxed.

Gradual reduction underway

Over the last three years, the NBR has been implementing a phased plan to curb tax exemptions, retaining them only for essential sectors and consumer-facing goods while introducing sunset clauses to ensure other incentives expire within a set timeframe.

In income tax, rates have been increased in sectors such as poultry and fisheries, effectively reducing exemptions.

Tax incentives for local manufacturing of products such as electronics, home appliances, mobile phones and semiconductors are also being gradually phased out, with timelines for full withdrawal outlined in last year's budget.

The standard VAT rate currently stands at 15%, and any lower rate applied to a sector is treated as a tax exemption.

To support export competitiveness, exporters benefit from reduced tax rates. They are exempt from import duties on raw materials and do not pay VAT on locally sourced inputs. Export-oriented firms are subject to a corporate tax rate of 12%, compared with 27% for non-listed companies.

The government raised fuel oil prices Saturday midnight to rein in mounting subsidies. The adjustment has had an immediate knock-on effect on transport fares and commodity prices, reflecting Bangladesh's heavy reliance on diesel-powered logistics.

The key question, however, is whether these cost increases are proportionate to the fuel price hike or significantly inflated. Take freight rates as an example. The cost of hiring a covered van from Dhaka to Chattogram jumped 30-40% to Tk20,000-Tk25,000 on Monday, up from Tk14,000-Tk15,000 on Friday.

Pickup fares from Bogura and Jashore have also risen from Tk12,000 to Tk15,500. This is despite diesel prices rising by around 15% to Tk115 per litre.

A typical truck or covered van consumes roughly 80-100 litres of diesel on the Dhaka-Chattogram route. Even at the higher end, the fuel cost increase would be about Tk1,500 per trip. In practice, however, freight charges have gone up by Tk6,000-Tk10,000.

"There is a shortage of vehicles due to fuel constraints. Those still operating are losing time refuelling, often stopping at multiple filling stations," said Syed Md Bakhtiar, executive president of the Bangladesh Truck and Covered Van Owners' Association.

In Dhaka's wholesale hubs, these inflated overheads have translated into immediate hikes for daily staples, leaving low- and middle-income households to tighten their belts. Egg prices, for instance, have risen by Tk2-Tk2.5 per piece, due to higher transport costs.

But the actual impact of the fuel hike should be no more than 20 paisa per egg, according to Mohammad Halim, a wholesale trader at Moghbazar.

Rice prices have increased by Tk4 to Tk6 per kg over the past week. Miniket rice is now selling at Tk82 to Tk85 per kg, up from Tk78, while Najirshail has risen to Tk88 to Tk94 per kg. Local lentils have increased by Tk10 per kg, now selling at Tk150 to Tk160.

Edible oil and sugar prices have also climbed. Loose soybean oil is selling at Tk170 to Tk175 per litre, while sugar has risen to Tk135 to Tk145 per kg amid supply shortages.

Vegetable prices have climbed across the board, particularly for items sourced from outside Dhaka. Brinjal now sells at Tk100-Tk120 per kg, while most other vegetables, including gourds, beans and leafy varieties, have moved into the Tk70-Tk120 per kg range. Even staple items like tomatoes, carrots, onions and cabbage have edged higher, tightening household budgets.

Spice prices have risen more sharply in comparison, with cardamom seeing the steepest jump, nearly doubling to Tk4,500–Tk6,099 per kg. Cumin, cinnamon, cloves and bay leaf have also recorded steady increases, adding sustained pressure on kitchen costs.

While poultry has remained a relative silver lining – with Sonali chicken at Tk360 to Tk380 and broiler chicken at Tk170 to Tk180 per kg – the fish market has seen a broad increase of Tk40 to Tk50 per kg.

Large tilapia is now selling at Tk300 per kg, rohu at Tk450, and pangash at Tk200, while the prized hilsa is fetching between Tk2,200 and Tk3,000 per kg.

Beyond transport, wholesalers like Khalek Uddin at Moulvibazar say that higher energy prices are driving up cold storage and packaging costs, further narrowing the margins.

At Karwan Bazar, trader Nurul Islam noted that the relentless rise in procurement costs has left merchants with little choice but to pass the buck to consumers, who now face an increasingly difficult battle to manage basic food expenses.

Once upon a time, banks in Bangladesh were regarded as highly reliable financial institutions. Any walk-in customer could open an account at a nearby branch and deposit their money without much concern for risk, as the perceived risk was virtually zero.

Financial Institutions (FIs), however, were considered less trustworthy. Only individuals with personal connections to FI officials or those familiar with their operational framework and oversight by the central bank, Bangladesh Bank, were willing to place funds there—mainly to earn higher returns than banks offered.

Public confidence in FIs deteriorated following the collapse of several institutions over the past decade. Although banks continued operations during this period, the acute liquidity crisis of Farmers Bank Ltd. in 2017 significantly undermined public trust in the banking sector.

This incident compelled people to reconsider the safety of keeping their savings in banks, intensifying concerns over the sector’s credibility and stability. Nevertheless, depositors did not withdraw their money en masse. Many banks, however, have since experienced prolonged financial distress and face substantial challenges in managing operational funds.

The required regulatory measures in 2024–25 constrained fund inflows, slowing deposit growth and, in some cases, increasing withdrawals, leading to a major setback for the sector and further erosion of public confidence.

Numerous factors contribute to vulnerabilities in the banking sector, most of which fall under the broad umbrella of corporate governance failure. Corporate governance encompasses institutional structure, internal systems, policies, implementation mechanisms, oversight processes, internal controls, audit functions, and consistent reporting to Boards and regulators.

While structural frameworks often align with global standards, deficiencies persist in implementation and oversight. Weaknesses in monitoring, execution of responsibilities by management and Boards, and ineffective audit functions—including internal audit—reflect a gap between formal compliance and the competence required for robust governance.

Senior management and boards should ensure strict compliance with policies across all stages of credit and investment operations:

(a) initial screening, including checkpoints such as the coachability of owners, legal compliance, financial performance, and sectoral outlook;

(b) rigorous due diligence covering financial and marketing performance, legal compliance, risk assessment, and management frameworks, concluding with structured investment decisions addressing repayment terms, security coverage, and monitoring as per agreement and covenant clauses;

(c) ongoing monitoring of borrowers’ operations and financial performance, ensuring adherence to agreements;

(d) effective functioning of Internal Control and Compliance Departments and Audit Committees; and

(e) implementation of early alert systems to identify and mitigate emerging risks.

Management must adhere strictly to these policies, while Boards should review implementation through regular reports and provide guidance, exercising oversight without interference, including political influence. Such processes were grossly neglected in vulnerable banks.

In practice, these policies were often only on paper, with many investments pre-decided due to personal connections or political influence (“name-lending”). Investment memos were sometimes based on illegal or non-compliant financial statements, with insufficient knowledge of the legally acceptable requirements under the Companies Act 1994.

Banks failing to comply with rigorous policies accumulated poor-quality loan portfolios and generated misleading reports that obscured asset classifications, creating persistent warning signals. The undue flexibility of Boards and regulators, instead of enforcing early corrective measures, contributed to recurring weaknesses, ultimately bringing banks to the brink of collapse.

All distressed banks should undergo independent compliance audits to identify wrongdoing and strengthen governance.

To restore public trust, they must ensure adequate capitalization, timely depositor repayment, prudent lending, regulatory compliance, transparent reporting, robust risk management, strong internal controls, and accountable, ethical leadership with effective oversight by Boards, audit committees, and regulators.

The writer is a fellow member of ICAB and partner at Basu Banerjee Nath & Co., Chartered Accountants.

The American Apparel and Footwear Association (AAFA), along with several other organisations, has urged the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the US government’s chief trade body, not to impose any new tariffs on countries currently under investigation over production capacity.

In a letter sent to the USTR on April 15, the AAFA warned that additional tariffs on supplying countries could raise costs for American consumers.

Last month, the USTR launched an investigation into 60 economies, including Bangladesh, over alleged failures to address issues related to production capacity and forced labour.

Bangladesh is scheduled to take part in a virtual USTR hearing on the matter on April 29.

The AAFA said in its letter that the US already imposes relatively high tariffs on textiles, apparel, footwear and accessories, even though these products contain significant US value, including intellectual property, raw materials such as leather, and textile inputs like yarns and fabrics.

As a result, textiles, apparel, footwear and travel goods face higher effective tariff rates than most other sectors.

The letter added that this burden disproportionately affects the industry, even though many of these goods are no longer produced in commercial quantities in the US.

It further said that although some countries identified in the investigation may run trade surpluses in certain product categories, these do not necessarily reflect structural excess capacity or practices that distort or restrict US commerce.

The concept of structural excess capacity does not reflect conditions in the US industry, it added.

Instead, the AAFA said, these trade flows are shaped by globally integrated supply chains, where production capacity is developed and used based on business decisions, long-term customer relationships and changing demand patterns.

The association urged the USTR to avoid any action that would further increase tariffs on these goods.

It also said the broad, multi-country investigation appears to be aimed at a pre-determined outcome rather than a focused review of specific practices.

The AAFA added that the investigation may be used to recreate tariff rates and structures that existed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

It also cited Treasury Secretary Bessent, who said, “We will get back to the same tariff level for the countries. It will be just in a less direct and slightly more convoluted manner.”

The association warned that this approach could weaken the government’s ability to properly investigate and address specific foreign trade barriers.

In conclusion, the letter said the industry should not face unintended negative impacts from these investigations. It warned against further tariffs on an already heavily taxed sector, saying such measures would raise costs for American families while doing little to boost domestic production due to existing capacity and investment limits.

BANGLADESH EXPORTS SHOW STRONG GROWTH IN US MARKET

For example, in 2025, clothing exports -- accounting for 86 percent of Bangladesh’s total exports to the US -- rose by 12.36 percent to 266.15 crore square metre equivalents (SME). In value terms, exports increased by 11.75 percent to $8.20 billion compared with 2024, according to the USTR.

Footwear exports from Bangladesh reached 1.78 crore pairs, a rise of 76.43 percent in 2025 compared with 2024. In value terms, footwear exports grew by 52.67 percent to $391.77 million.

Travel goods exports increased by 26.32 percent to 2.15 crore pieces in 2025. Their value also rose by 35.44 percent to $12.37 million, the USTR said.

In another letter, the Forced Labor Working Group (FLWG) of the AAFA, along with 17 other trade organisations, urged the USTR not to impose tariffs linked to forced labour investigations.

They said companies that have invested heavily in compliance systems and are working to eliminate forced labour in supply chains should not be penalised through broad tariff measures that do not distinguish between responsible firms and bad actors.

The letter added that, under Agreements on Reciprocal Trade (ART) and related framework negotiations with the US, several economies -- including some covered by the investigation --have already committed to protecting labour rights and banning imports made with forced labour.

A consistent theme in global oil markets since the US and Israel attacked Iran is that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz will be short-lived, and therefore so will the disruption to the supply of crude and refined products.

That expectation has consistently been reflected in pricing for crude oil futures, which have risen sharply since ​the conflict began on February 28, but are still well short of the highs reached in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

In effect, the paper crude market has believed ‌US President Donald Trump’s slew of social media posts since the bombing started that the conflict will be short, and result in Iran accepting US terms for a peace deal.

The problem is that the reality on the ground doesn’t match the social media claims, and the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed the more severe the energy crisis will become, especially in Asia.

Brent crude futures fell 9.1 percent on April 17 to end at $90.38 a barrel in the wake of Trump’s post that the Strait of Hormuz was fully ​open. But they jumped 6.9 percent in early Asian trade on Monday to $96.59 when it became clear the waterway was still closed.

The latest round of optimism that the Strait of Hormuz would re-open began after a Trump social media post ​on April 17 that the waterway that carried as much as 20 percent of the world’s crude oil and refined product supply prior to the war was “fully open and ready for full passage.”

Trump’s assertion was even backed by elements within the Iranian government, but the optimism proved short-lived as Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps moved to keep the strait closed, given Trump’s decision to maintain a US ​naval blockade of Iranian ports.

There are several questions that the market should be asking about the current situation.

Does this mean that the Strait of Hormuz is now effectively being closed by the United States?

Would it re-open if Trump ended ​the blockade of Iranian ports?

Is there sufficient trust between the warring parties to accept a principle that the strait should be open to all?

Who is really in control in Iran, and are they willing to negotiate with a US administration that has a track record of abandoning agreements?

While these are issues for debate, the only fact that really matters is that the strait isn’t open and the risk of attack is likely to keep it that way for the hundreds of vessels waiting either side of the crucial waterway.

SUPPLY STRESS

In ​the meantime crude oil and refined product supply chains are becoming more stressed, especially in Asia, which was the destination for about 80 percent of all the shipments via the Strait of Hormuz prior to the conflict.

While crude futures have ​largely traded on the daily news flow and an underlying optimism that the conflict will be of a limited duration, physical oil and refined products have reflected a more dire near-term supply situation.

Refined products in the Asian trading hub of Singapore have ‌remained at extreme levels, with jet fuel ending at $204.13 a barrel on April 17, more than double the $93.45 close on February 27, the day before the war started.

Gasoil, the building block for diesel, ended at $145.27 a barrel on April 17, up 59 percent since the conflict started, although down from the record $199.89 hit on March 30.

The problem for Asia is that the worst of the supply crunch is probably still to come, as crude shipments into the region fall sharply.

Asia’s seaborne crude imports are estimated at 20.62 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, down from 22.36 million bpd in March, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler. However, both March and April are well down on the 26.76 million bpd average for the ​three months prior to the attacks on Iran.

The situation ​is especially worrying for countries that are major refining centres and exporters of fuels to the region.

Singapore’s crude imports are forecast at 388,000 bpd in April, down from 715,000 bpd in March and 980,000 bpd in January.

South Korea’s crude imports are estimated at 1.68 million bpd in April, down from 2.24 million bpd in March and 2.74 million bpd in January.

Japan’s April imports are expected to be ​921,000 bpd, a drop from 1.63 million bpd in March and 2.16 million bpd in January.

Only India is bucking the trend, with April imports estimated by Kpler ​at 4.67 million bpd, up from 4.45 million bpd in March, but below January’s 5.15 million bpd.

India has been able to secure Russian oil to help offset the loss of barrels from the Middle East, with 1.64 million bpd arriving in April, up from 1.06 million bpd in February.

Notwithstanding India’s success in sourcing crude from other producers, the problem is that Asia’s supplies are coming under strain and it’s likely that refinery processing rates will have to be cut in coming weeks.

It is when the supply of refined ⁠products becomes more ​constrained that the real economic impact of Trump’s war of choice will be felt.

The question for the paper crude oil market is how ​long can it maintain the hope that the conflict will be over soon, when the reality seems to be heading in the other direction?

Finance authorities are set to seek Prime Minister's guidance as to how far the government can go in complying with the International Monetary Fund conditions to secure hard-term budget-support funds.

Finance Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury will lead his team at the consultation today with Prime Minister Tarek Rahman, officials say, as the IMF lending terms have seemingly outwitted negotiators.

A senior government official who attended last week's Spring Meetings in Washington says the decision has become increasingly complex as the current economic situation leaves little room to fully comply with all the IMF conditions.Global economy analysis

"It is now a political decision rather than an economic one -- whether the government will accept the IMF conditions," the official told The Financial Express.

Key IMF strings binding the release of the next two tranches from a lending package in June 2026 include withdrawal of subsidies, raising the tax-to-GDP ratio to 9.2 per cent, and adopting a market-based exchange rate.

Given the ongoing Middle East conflict, sluggish investment, rising fuel prices, persistent inflation, and a downward trend in exports, the government is unlikely to take any drastic measures in the upcoming budget, the official adds.

"We have found the IMF quite rigid on its conditions this time. It wants the withdrawal of all tax exemptions and the introduction of a single VAT rate, which appears difficult to implement under current circumstances," the official notes.

However, IMF officials have urged the government to undertake reforms early in its tenure to minimize future challenges.

Officials at the National Board of Revenue (NBR) say achieving a tax-to-GDP ratio of 9.2 per cent by FY2026-27 would require an additional Tk 2.0 trillion in revenue collection within the next year.Politics

At a recent coordination council meeting, the government set an NBR revenue target of Tk 6.04 trillion -- an increase by nearly Tk 1.0 trillion from the current fiscal year.

However, the revenue officials fear a revenue shortfall of around Tk 1.0 trillion in the ongoing fiscal year.

Until February, the NBR had collected Tk 2.51 trillion, roughly 50 per cent of the revised target of Tk 5.03 trillion.

Government insiders say the situation has become more complicated as the IMF has taken a firm stance on three key issues that the Ministry of Finance cannot decide on its own.

External financing from multilateral development partners largely depends on IMF assessments and approval. Following the IMF meetings, the NBR chairman held an emergency meeting Sunday to assess the feasibility of complying with the dos.

A senior NBR official has told the FE that achieving the targeted increase in the tax-GDP ratio -- from the current 6.5 per cent to 9.2 per cent -- would require around 50 per cent growth in tax revenue.

"We find these conditions difficult to implement in the current economic environment," the official says.

He adds that scrapping time-bound tax exemptions may not be legally feasible either, while withdrawing subsidies is not practical at a time when the economy is under strain due to the impact of the Mideast conflict.Financial news subscription

"The economy does not have the capacity to absorb a complete withdrawal of tax exemptions at this stage."

However, the IMF has advised the government to implement difficult reforms early in its tenure for long-term economic stability.

"We cannot increase revenue overnight simply by curbing tax evasion or recovering arrears," the NBR official says in clear terms.

The revenue board is currently conducting intensive internal assessments to evaluate the potential impact of implementing the IMF conditions.

Dr Fahmida Khatun, executive director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), suggests the government should prepare a roadmap to implement IMF conditions.

She, however, finds it difficult to implement all conditions by next year, such as withdrawal of all tax exemptions.

"We need IMF funds but the government needs to be cautious as economy is not prepared now to absorb the pressure," she adds.Banking sector news

There are many sectors that need tax benefits and fiscal support to grow, she notes.

Unilever Consumer Care reported that its revenue dropped by 8% in the first quarter of this year.

According to the financial statement for the January-March period of 2026, the health drinks like Horlicks producer posted a revenue of Tk87.44 crore, which was Tk95.40 crore during the same quarter a year ago.

Following the revenue decline, its net profit also dropped by 12% year-on-year to Tk12.11 crore in the first quarter.

At the end of March, its earnings per share stood at Tk6.29, which was Tk7.13 a year ago.

In alignment with the BNP government's election manifesto, the finance ministry will prioritise 12 sectors in the upcoming FY2026-27 budget, including ensuring advanced education and healthcare, job creation, and food and energy security.

The Finance Division has instructed various ministries to submit their budget estimates for the next fiscal year and projections for the following two fiscal years to the finance ministry by 30 April, keeping these priorities in mind.

A circular issued today (20 April) emphasised prioritising human resource development, social protection, women and child development, poverty alleviation, the expansion of creative economic activities, tackling climate change, and bringing dynamism to economic development.

The first budget of the BNP government is likely to be announced on 11 June.

The estimated budget size is Tk9.30 lakh crore, which includes Tk3 lakh crore for development expenditure and Tk6.30 lakh crore for operating expenditure.

Pioneer Insurance PLC posted a 25% year-on-year growth in net profit in the first quarter of 2026, driven largely by a sharp cut in management expenses, even as its premium income declined significantly.

According to the company's financial statements for the January–March period, net profit after tax rose to Tk16.59 crore, up from the same period last year. Earnings per share (EPS) also increased to Tk1.70, compared to Tk1.36 a year earlier.

However, the insurer's premium income dropped by 19% to Tk77.72 crore during the quarter, reflecting a broader slowdown in the general insurance sector.

The profit growth was mainly supported by a 45% reduction in management expenses, which fell to Tk16.37 crore. The decline followed a regulatory move by the Insurance Development and Regulatory Authority (IDRA) to cancel agent commissions for non-life insurers, easing operational costs.

Despite the improved bottom line, the company faced rising claims, which surged by 64% year-on-year to Tk12.11 crore during the quarter.

Commenting on the performance, Syed Shahriyar Ahsan, chief executive officer of Pioneer Insurance, said the industry is currently navigating a challenging environment.

"The cancellation of agent commissions has significantly reduced business volumes that were previously driven by agents," he told The Business Standard.

He added that a slowdown in private sector exports and imports, coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has further impacted the sector.

According to Ahsan, the general insurance industry experienced a combined premium income decline of Tk221 crore in the first two months of 2026, reflecting sluggish economic activity and the absence of agent incentives.

He also raised concerns over pricing practices among smaller insurers, alleging that some companies are undercutting premiums to secure business. "This creates an uneven playing field for companies that maintain standard pricing and transparency," he said, urging regulators to address the issue.

To stabilise the sector, he suggested reintroducing mandatory motor insurance, citing rising road accidents and the need to expand coverage while improving industry transparency.

Despite the quarterly profit growth, investor sentiment remained cautious. Pioneer Insurance shares declined by 1.13% to close at Tk61.30 on the Dhaka Stock Exchange on Monday.

For the year ended 31 December 2025, the company reported an EPS of Tk4.57 and a net asset value per share of Tk46.97. Based on this performance, its board has recommended a 25% cash dividend alongside a 5% stock dividend, subject to regulatory approval.

The company's annual general meeting is scheduled to be held on 4 May through a digital platform.

Shahjibazar Power Co Ltd, a concern of Youth Group, has reported a staggering 138% growth in its consolidated net profit during the first nine months of the 2025-26 fiscal year, driven by higher operational efficiency and strong contributions from its associate companies.

According to the company's price-sensitive disclosure released on Monday following its board meeting, consolidated net profit reached Tk81.53 crore for the July-March period, while the consolidated earnings per share (EPS) surged to Tk4.37 from the previous year's levels.

This growth was supported by a 15% increase in total consolidated revenue, which climbed to Tk1,055 crore.

The company's performance was even more robust in the third quarter alone, spanning January to March, where consolidated net profit skyrocketed by 254% to settle at Tk24.71 crore.

During these three months, consolidated revenue grew by 13% to Tk331.31 crore, yielding an EPS of Tk1.32.

The company attributed this stellar numerical performance primarily to a substantial increase in its plant factor, which rose to 77% during this period compared to just 55% in the corresponding period of the previous year.

Beyond its core operations, Shahjibazar Power benefited significantly from its diversified investment portfolio.

A senior company official noted that the firm's bottom line was bolstered by substantial earnings from its two associate companies – Midland East Power and Midland Power Company.

Additionally, the company's subsidiary, Petromax Refinery Limited, showed a healthy recovery, with its revenue jumping by 6% to Tk721.32 crore during the nine-month period.

The parent company, Shahjibazar Power, also displayed remarkable standalone strength as its revenue grew by 41% to reach Tk333.71 crore.

On Monday, Shahjibazar Power shares ended 2.12% higher at Tk53.10 at the Dhaka Stock Exchange.

Growing political instability and military tensions in the Middle East have started negatively impacting Bangladesh's export trade, and a prolonged crisis could also put significant pressure on vital remittance inflows.Politics

Commerce Minister Khandaker Abdul Muktadir sounds alarm in parliament in a reckoning of how the Mideast mayhem is affecting the country's external trade, remittance and fuel supply.

His statement came during a question-and-answer session in parliament on Monday, with Deputy Speaker Kaiser Kamal in the chair.

Responding to a query from ruling-party MP Shamsur Rahman Shimul Biswas, the minister warns that ongoing tensions involving Iran, Israel, and the United States could cast far-reaching implications on the global economy and trade, with Bangladesh unlikely to remain insulated. "The Middle East is an extremely important market for Bangladesh," he says, noting that countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman are key destinations for Bangladeshi exports, including ready-made garments, pharmaceuticals, frozen foods, and leather goods.

Instability has already driven up fuel prices, leading to higher import costs as well as increased shipping and insurance expenses.

"This is creating challenges such as reduced exports to Middle Eastern markets and rising commodity prices," the trade minister tells the lawmakers. To mitigate the impact, the government is working to reduce logistics costs and expand exports to countries less affected by the conflict.Bangladesh market report

In response to a separate question from SM Jahangir Hossain, another BNP member, the minister highlights Bangladesh's trade imbalance within the South Asian region. He states that Bangladesh runs trade deficits with all SAARC countries save Nepal, Sri Lanka and the Maldives.

The largest deficit is with India, amounting to $7.86 billion. Other deficits include $681 million with Pakistan, $10.71 million with Afghanistan, and $29.77 million with Bhutan.

In contrast, Bangladesh maintains trade surpluses with Nepal, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives.

Answering another question from Abul Kalam, the minister presents export- performance data, noting that export earnings reached US$55.19 billion in the 2024-25 fiscal year.

Meanwhile, in response to a question from independent MP Rumin Farhana, he says the government has taken steps to control inflation by eliminating duties on 110 products and reducing tariffs on 65 others.

Apple shares declined less than 1% in late trading on Monday after the communications hardware firm said its chief executive, Tim Cook, would step down after nearly 15 years at the helm of the world's second most-valuable company. The decision by Cook, 65 years old, to step aside in favour of longtime Apple hardware chief John Ternus took Wall Street by surprise and will raise questions about whether the new chief can maintain the brisk pace set by his predecessor.

Cook will become executive chairman on 1 September as the iPhone maker gears up for industry change spurred by artificial intelligence. He succeeded Apple founder Steve Jobs when he took over and turned the firm into a global brand that churns out hundreds of millions of units annually. He will give way to a company insider known for his focus on design and product.

Apple said of Cook:

"Under Cook's leadership Apple has grown from a market capitalisation of approximately $350 billion to $4 trillion, representing a more than 1,000% increase, and yearly revenue has nearly quadrupled, from $108 billion in fiscal year 2011 to more than $416 billion in fiscal year 2025. ... Apple operates over 500 retail stores and has more than doubled the number of countries in which its customers can visit an Apple Store. During his tenure, Apple has grown by more than 100,000 team members and increased its active installed base to more than 2.5 billion devices."

The decision will guarantee Apple's next quarterly report, due a week from Thursday on 30 April, will be even more closely watched than usual.

Comments:

RICK MECKLER, PARTNER, CHERRY LANE INVESTMENTS, NEW VERNON, NEW JERSEY:

"Tim Cook did an amazing job. And I'm not surprised that the initial reaction is for the stock to be a little bit lower. But he will be executive chairman. I imagine he'll still be part of the larger strategy of the company.

"He has been an incredibly successful CEO coming into a situation that you thought would be hard to replace the person before. I hate to see him leave the CEO spot, as an investor."

ART HOGAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, B. RILEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT, BOSTON:

"He would never leave if the numbers were going to be bad, so I think that that's the important thing. They're about to report numbers, and you know they're going to be good. You know the guidance is going to be positive. And you know we're going to start hearing more about how they are going to use artificial intelligence to improve their products."

"He's been a transformational Apple CEO that's always had a steady hand at the wheel. I think that will be his legacy. He had massive shoes to step into, and he was the right person for the job. That's the way he'll be remembered."

TIM GHRISKEY, SENIOR PORTFOLIO STRATEGIST, INGALLS & SNYDER, NEW YORK:

"The company has done very well. And you know, its stock price, the value of the company, have increased dramatically. A lot of that is being in the right place at the right time, but I think they've made the right moves, and I think they've grown their user base.

"Earnings are upcoming, so he probably wanted to get it out there, so it didn't become an issue in the earnings."

JACOB BOURNE, ANALYST AT EMARKETER, NEW YORK:

"This transition shouldn't come as a shock, as Cook is at retirement age and Ternus has long been rumoured as the successor. Cook staying on as CEO through September before continuing as executive chairman should provide some degree of reassurance to investors even as markets react negatively to the near-term uncertainty.

"Cook successfully steered Apple through multiple periods of turbulence, and handing the reins over during another turbulent moment, which includes supply chain disruptions, tariffs and the AI race, is notable timing, though a fresh CEO also brings the opportunity for fresh solutions. Ternus' hardware engineering background signals that Apple's commitment to consumer hardware isn't going anywhere, even as the company works to close the gap on AI."

The refund system set up to allow companies to recover illegally collected tariffs from ​the US government went live yesterday (20 April) as thousands of companies rushed to file claims.

"So far, so good" - though the system is a little glitchy, said ‌Jay Foreman, CEO of toymaker Basic Fun, which had a team in its "war room" at its headquarters in Boca Raton, Florida, ready to start filing when the system went live at 8am US Eastern time (1300 GMT).

Foreman said the system didn't crash as some had feared it might under the onslaught of attempted submissions, but rather would sometimes not allow an upload and force them to retry. The company has over 500 files it ​needs to upload to the system, although the system permits these to be uploaded in batches.

"However, if you load too many or the system is too busy, it ​will kick them back," Foreman said in an email about how the process was working in the early moments. "We've got over 50% of ⁠our invoices loaded so far. We are hoping in the next few hours to have them all loaded. I'm very happy we got this process started early."

Companies contacted by Reuters in recent ​days expressed concerns about the durability of the new system, created by US Customs and Border Protection in response to a court order that it prepare to return up to $166 billion to importers.

"I'm ​relieved that the portal seems to be functioning properly," said Cassie Abel, CEO of Idaho-based outerwear company Wild Rye. Abel had her customs broker make the submission, which she said cost her $250 for the first phase of the filing.

The US Supreme Court in February struck down the tariffs President Donald Trump pursued under a law meant for use in national emergencies, handing the Republican president a stinging defeat.

In court filings, Customs officials said as ​of 9 April, some 56,497 importers had completed the necessary steps to receive electronic refunds, an amount totalling $127 billion, or more than three-quarters of the total eligible to be refunded. More ​than 330,000 importers paid the tariffs at issue on 53 million shipments of imported goods.

It's a European first for city streets and could lead to more near-autonomous vehicles on the continent.

It is unclear whether getting a refund claim into the portal as soon as possible will impact how quickly it's processed, ‌but many ⁠companies decided not to take the risk of waiting.

A CBP spokesman said on Friday they created a system that will "efficiently process refunds, pursuant to court order, for importers and brokers who paid" the duties.

Long battle over tariffs

Rick Woldenberg, CEO of educational toy maker Learning Resources, said he had heard some users experienced temporary crashes, but he wasn't among them. "I think it was sort of like everyone was lined up to get Taylor Swift tickets - they all hit the button at once," Woldenberg said.

Learning Resources, one of the plaintiffs in the lawsuit that led to the tariffs' undoing, ​is seeking some $10 million in refunds. The company ​has filed about 5,000 entries, and so ⁠far, the vast majority have been accepted.

Woldenberg voiced some frustration at having to file for reimbursement at all, saying: "They have a ruling from the Supreme Court that says they over-collected taxes, so why do I have to tell them to send it back?"

Still, he said he was ​impressed with how smoothly the system has run so far.

"The policies set at the top have nothing to do with the professionals who ​work in CBP, and those ⁠folks have done a good and earnest job," said Woldenberg.

Lynlee Brown, global trade partner at EY, said the firm's clients have largely seen the system accept most submissions without problem but that the first phase of submissions included easier ones that are less complex.

Brown said that once the entries are accepted by the system, they are then sent to a mass-processing phase that is supposed to automate ⁠the payment of ​refunds within 60 to 90 days. "If an origin comes up that looks fishy," she said, "that will probably go ​to a human for review."

This is the latest twist in a drawn-out battle over emergency tariffs collected over the past year as Trump seeks to restructure US trade relations. The constantly shifting tariffs roiled global business as companies rushed to ​move supply chains to avoid them as well as figure out who would ultimately pay the taxes.

Economists have attributed the decline to overall political instability and uncertainty surrounding the elections.

Former World Bank Dhaka office lead economist Zahid Hossain said there was no conducive environment for investment at the time.

“There was uncertainty over the direction of political consensus, making it unrealistic to expect foreign funds to flow into the country. Although the interim government took some initiatives to attract investment, those efforts faced obstacles,” he said.

He added that foreign investors were hesitant as they knew the interim government would not be permanent and there was no clear roadmap regarding the elections.

Reinvested earnings also saw a sharp decline during the period. Bangladesh Bank data showed a 35.31 percent drop, with reinvested earnings standing at $217.4 million at the end of the October–December quarter, compared to $325.75 million a year earlier.

Reinvested earnings refer to profits generated by foreign companies from local operations that are reinvested in the country instead of being repatriated. While this indicates some level of investment activity, overall FDI growth depends largely on new equity investments, which remain weak.

Distinguished Fellow of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) Mustafizur Rahman said foreign firms reduced reinvested earnings considering the overall economic and political environment.

“There was uncertainty over whether elections would take place, which discouraged reinvestment. Although elections were held in February, concerns persisted during that quarter,” he said.

Apart from political factors, economists pointed to several structural challenges hindering FDI inflows, including policy complexities, high business costs, and infrastructural limitations.

Bangladesh also lags behind other South Asian countries in port management, transport, and logistics facilities, as well as cargo and container handling capacity.

Mustafizur Rahman said issues such as the absence of an effective single-window system and high costs of doing business are discouraging foreign investors.

“Even if the political environment improves, investment will not increase unless these structural problems are addressed. The arrival of an elected government alone will not automatically boost FDI, as investors evaluate overall opportunities and conditions,” he added.

A senior Bangladesh Bank official said private sector investment has also declined, indicating that both local and foreign investors are reluctant to undertake new investments.

According to Bangladesh Bank, total foreign investment—including equity, reinvested earnings, and intra-company loans—stood at $363.82 million during the period, down from $494 million in the same quarter of 2024.

All investment-related services in Bangladesh will be brought under a single digital platform called BanglaBiz after 2030, a senior Bida official said yesterday at a memorandum of understanding signing ceremony with five private banks at Bida Bhaban.

Jibon Krishna Saha Roy, director general (investment promotion) of the Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (Bida), said, "We are calling it the Bangladesh Investment Portal. After 2030, there will be no separate portal – only one platform, BanglaBiz."

He said existing one-stop service (OSS) portals will be gradually integrated into the platform.

Bida, in partnership with the Japan International Cooperation Agency (Jica), also unveiled new features of BanglaBiz. The first version was launched on 28 September 2025 as an information portal linking OSS systems of Bida, Beza, Bepza, BHTPA and BSCIC.

Bida executive member Air Commodore Md Shaharul Huda said BanglaBiz is not limited to Bida. "OSS of all investment-related authorities will be connected to this platform. Services already integrated into Bida's OSS will also be transferred soon," he said.

He added that Bida is continuously upgrading the OSS system to ensure faster and more modern services for investors.

The five banks joining the initiative are NCC Bank PLC, One Bank PLC, United Commercial Bank PLC, Shimanto Bank PLC and Al-Arafah Islami Bank PLC.

Under the agreement, investors will be able to open bank accounts online through the OSS portal, including temporary accounts for foreign investors.

Bida said its OSS platform currently offers 142 services and is integrated with 47 agencies. So far, more than 215,000 applications have been processed.

The authority has signed 68 MoUs with service providers and plans to expand OSS coverage to over 150 services across 60 institutions.

It is also working to develop BanglaBiz as a unified digital platform based on a "one-time information" principle for investors.

Amid ongoing domestic and global challenges, businesses have urged the government to ensure that the upcoming national budget for the 2026-27 fiscal year is supportive and growth-oriented rather than “punitive”.

They also called for a reduction in effective tax rates, including turnover tax, and stressed the need for a balanced and pragmatic tax policy to encourage investment and economic expansion.

The demands were made at a pre-budget seminar on private-sector priorities in Dhaka, jointly organised by the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Dhaka (MCCI), and the Economic Reporters’ Forum (ERF).

“In the current global and domestic economic context, we are going through a challenging time,” said Kamran T Rahman, president of MCCI.

High inflation, sluggish investment, elevated interest rates, and pressure on foreign exchange have made doing business difficult, he said, adding that small and medium enterprises are the worst affected.

He said the budget should focus on boosting investment and job creation, urging a further 2.5 percentage point cut in corporate tax for both listed and non-listed companies and the removal of the cash transaction condition.

Rahman also proposed introducing a “Unified Taxpayer Profile” to replace separate tax, VAT, and customs systems, which he said would reduce complexity and harassment.

Golam Mainuddin, chairperson of Apex Footwear Limited, said the tax burden remains disproportionately high on compliant taxpayers.

Habibullah N Karim, senior vice-president of MCCI, said, “This is an opportunity to rethink our taxation paradigm; high rates often discourage compliance.”

“Bangladesh once had such high-income tax rates that no one paid at the top bracket. When rates were reduced, collection increased and it could rise further if rates are lowered again,” he added.

Citing VAT, he noted, “If rates come down from 15 percent, more businesses will comply, and overall collection could increase.”

“There is a huge scope to expand the tax net, but a rent-seeking culture within the tax administration remains a major barrier.”

“Without making the system service-oriented and addressing this culture, even automation will not deliver effective results,” he said.

Malik Mohammed Sayeed, chief executive officer of Square Toiletries Limited, called for retaining tax exemptions on sanitary napkins and diapers.

He also urged a reduction in taxes on imported raw materials to around 10 percent, as key inputs are not locally produced and require large-scale investment.

Asif Ibrahim, former president of the Chittagong Stock Exchange, said, “Investment has stagnated. Without protecting domestic investors, foreign investment will not come.”

He noted that declining private-sector credit growth is a concern, and financial sector reforms are needed.

“We expect the budget to support both domestic and foreign investment through a collaborative approach to drive growth and jobs,” he said.

Former NBR chairman Muhammad Abdul Mazid stressed policy predictability, saying businesses need clarity on tax rates in advance.

ERF President Doulot Akter Mala warned of a potential revenue shortfall of nearly Tk 100,000 crore this fiscal year, cautioning against overly ambitious targets in the next budget.

Business leaders have called for the urgent appointment of a private-sector administrator and swift elections at the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI), warning that prolonged administrative uncertainty is weakening the country’s apex trade body and undermining the interests of the private sector.

They made the call at a meeting with Commerce Minister Khandker Abdul Muqtadir at the commerce ministry today.

The FBCCI has been run by an administrator for the past two years following the political changeover on August 5, 2024.

At today’s event, Mohammad Hatem, president of the BKMEA, stressed the need to appoint an experienced businessperson as administrator of the FBCCI, instead of a government official, so that the concerns of the business community can be addressed more effectively.

He emphasised greater engagement with businesses in policymaking, particularly in the trade and industrial sectors, and highlighted the need to ensure the federation remains active, inclusive, and responsive to all business groups.

Hatem also underscored the urgency of restoring effective leadership through timely elections, warning that prolonged uncertainty is undermining business confidence.

He said the apex trade body must function as a strong and credible representative of the private sector, especially at a time when businesses face multiple domestic and global challenges. Without an elected committee, he noted, the organisation cannot effectively carry out its role in policy advocacy and coordination.

He called for prompt steps to hold elections and restore normal operations, adding that representative leadership would better protect business interests and support economic growth.

Md Zakir Hossain, general secretary of the Bangladesh Supermarket Owners’ Association, also called for the immediate appointment of a new administrator for the FBCCI from within the business community, saying the association has become ineffective under the current setup.

He said the organisation has effectively been left “without guardianship” following consecutive government-appointed administrators. While a previous administrator, Hafizur Rahman, initiated reforms and announced an election schedule, the process was later stalled due to legal challenges from business leaders.

Hossain acknowledged shared responsibility within the business community but warned that prolonged uncertainty is hurting small and medium enterprises the most. “Large businesses can directly approach ministries, but SMEs depend on FBCCI,” he said.

He criticised current administrator Abdur Rahim for limited engagement, calling for a full-time, business-backed administrator. He added that elections should be held quickly, with any rule-related issues addressed either before or after polls by an elected committee.

Abdul Haque, president of the Bangladesh Reconditioned Vehicles Importers and Dealers Association (BARVIDA), also called for the immediate holding of elections at the FBCCI, saying prolonged delays are harming the private sector.

He said the federation has been without an elected committee for nearly two years, calling the situation detrimental to the business environment. “In an economy where around 80 percent is driven by the private sector, the absence of elected leadership in its apex body is unacceptable,” he said.

Haque warned that several policies have been adopted without adequate private-sector input and could have negative impacts. He particularly flagged the long-pending import policy, urging a thorough review.

While acknowledging shared responsibility, he urged the government to appoint a private-sector administrator and hold elections swiftly. Citing the 2006–07 caretaker period as precedent, he said timely action is both possible and necessary.

In response, Commerce Minister Khandker Abdul Muqtadir called for transforming the FBCCI into a truly representative, effective, and non-political body for the business community.

He said the association must play a more proactive role in protecting business interests and conveying concerns to the government, while applying constructive pressure when needed without being politicised.

“We want an FBCCI that genuinely serves as a unified platform for all businesses,” he said, adding that it should provide practical, ground-level input in policymaking.

Muqtadir stressed that competent and dynamic leadership from within the business community is essential to revitalise the organisation. He also reassured leaders of the government’s commitment to a business-friendly environment, noting that a new import policy is in its final stage and that committees will be formed to simplify services across key ministries.

At the meeting, FBCCI Administrator and Additional Secretary (export) Md Abdur Rahim Khan also spoke.

Among the business leaders present were former FBCCI president Mir Nasir Hossain, former BKMEA president SM Fazlul Haque, former FBCCI director Nasreen Fatema Awal, Bangladesh CNG Machineries Importers Association president Zakir Hossain Nayan, former FBCCI director Gias Uddin Chowdhury Khokon, former Rangamati Chamber president Belayet Hossain Bhuiyan, former FBCCI vice-president Nizam Uddin Rajesh, and former director Syed Bakhtiar.

The World Bank-IMF Spring Meetings ended with more questions than answers for Bangladesh. There was no firm signal on the size or timing of external financing, no breakthrough on the stalled IMF programme, and no assurance that the expected $3.2 billion in budget support from the World Bank, ADB, AIIB, and Japan can be mobilised within the government's timeline. At a moment when tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are already unsettling global energy and freight markets, this ambiguity could not have come at a worse time.

Yet the government's post-Meeting narrative has been one of calm continuity. Officials insist the IMF programme is not off the table and that external financing will materialise once routine discussions conclude in the coming months. This confidence, however, sits uneasily alongside the fiscal choices now on the table: a record Tk9.3 trillion budget built on an ambitious revenue target that keeps the deficit deceptively modest as a share of GDP. The implicit message is that adjustment can wait – even as the global environment grows more hostile.

That assumption is increasingly difficult to sustain. Bangladesh sits at the wrong end of every transmission channel emanating from the Strait of Hormuz. Even a partial disruption pushes up oil prices, inflating the import bill and expanding subsidy requirements. Disruptions to Saudi and Qatari urea shipments raise fertilizer costs and threaten agricultural cycles. War-risk premiums on Gulf shipping routes increase freight costs for an import-dependent manufacturing base. Each additional dollar spent on fuel, fertiliser, and freight becomes a direct drawdown on already strained foreign exchange reserves.

Crucially, these pressures are not temporary. Even if the conflict were to de-escalate quickly, the lagged effects on prices, supply chains, and risk premiums are likely to persist for months. This is a shock that compounds over time – and it is arriving just as Bangladesh's policy credibility is beginning to fray.

The deeper problem is that the pressure is no longer one-sided. Bangladesh today finds itself caught between a shock it cannot control and policies it has been slow to adjust. The global environment is tightening from one end; policy inertia is tightening from the other. The result is a narrowing policy space – an economy squeezed from both directions.

This is why the stalled IMF programme matters far beyond its immediate financing value. Without an active IMF programme, Bangladesh loses more than access to disbursements – it loses its credibility anchor. And without that anchor, budget support from other multilaterals becomes harder to unlock, with IMF endorsement now effectively the gatekeeper of macroeconomic confidence. If these flows do not materialise, the consequences are immediate: a wider external financing gap, sharper import compression, rising inflation, and further pressure on reserves.

It is also important to recognise the constraints under which the current government is operating. Barely two months into office, it has been forced to navigate a fragile macroeconomic landscape while confronting a global shock that intensified within days of assuming power. Under such conditions, delays in advancing reforms are understandable.

What is harder to justify, however, is not inertia but reversal. The issue is not that reforms have yet to move forward – it is that some have not yet moved backward. The reintroduction of discretion in petroleum pricing, renewed exchange-rate management despite commitments to a market-based regime, and amendments to the bank resolution framework that reopen the door to previously discredited owners all signal a retreat from earlier reform commitments. Meanwhile, larger structural measures – particularly in tax and financial sector reform – remain stalled.

This mix of reversal and inertia creates a credibility problem at precisely the wrong moment. Backtracking signals unreliability; delays signal a lack of urgency. Together, they raise doubts about the government's willingness to adjust, keeping external financing on hold while the global shock intensifies.

The adjustment path itself is not complicated – but it is politically difficult. It begins with restoring exchange-rate credibility, because without that, reserves cannot be rebuilt and external balances cannot stabilise. It requires aligning interest-rate policy with genuine monetary tightening to contain inflation. It demands a shift in fiscal policy from expansionary optimism to targeted consolidation – anchored in realistic revenue expectations, rationalised subsidies, and prioritised expenditure. And it necessitates moving forward on long-delayed structural reforms, from tax administration and banking sector cleanup to energy pricing, port management, and state-owned enterprise governance.

Ultimately, macroeconomic adjustment is never neutral. When policy delays persist, the burden does not disappear – it shifts. Import compression translates into raw-material shortages for industry. A defended exchange rate erodes export competitiveness while diverting remittances into informal channels. Delayed energy pricing reforms inflate subsidies, crowding out social spending. In the absence of timely policy action, adjustment takes place through even higher inflation, stricter and more chaotic rationing, and slower growth – mechanisms that disproportionately affect those least able to absorb the shock.

Bangladesh is now operating in a dangerously exposed position: caught between a volatile global environment, a stalled IMF programme, and a fiscal stance that assumes the storm will pass. But the world is tightening, not easing. External conditions are becoming less forgiving, not more.

The government may have had limited time – but the direction of travel is already visible.

The war delivered the shock, but the distribution of pain is being decided at home. Without timely and credible reforms, the burden of adjustment will not be shared evenly – it will cascade downward, onto households, workers, and small businesses. That is the real cost of delay: not just macroeconomic strain, but a quieter, more unequal adjustment that unfolds as policy continues to look the other way.

A day after hiking fuel prices, the government has announced a 10-20% increase in diesel, octane and petrol supplies from today to ease the shortages that kept motorists waiting in long queues for hours in Dhaka and elsewhere as of yesterday.

In a notification last night, the Energy Division said the distribution companies under the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) will sell 13,048 tonnes of diesel, 1,422 tonnes of octane and 1,511 tonnes of petrol per day from 20 April. This marks a 10% increase for diesel and petrol, and 20% for octane.

"Considering the present demand for fuel oils, companies under the BPC have been instructed to sell at the increased rates to keep up the supplies at dealers' and consumers' levels," reads the notification.

The government raised the price of octane by Tk20 per litre, petrol by Tk19 and diesel by Tk15, effective from yesterday.

Earlier in parliament yesterday, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Iqbal Hasan Mahmud Tuku blamed panic buying, stockpiling and black market activity for the shortages at filling stations.

He said there is no shortage of fuel in the country, but that an artificial crisis is being created.

Despite a sharp increase in fuel prices aimed at reducing the subsidy burden, motorists across Bangladesh continued to face long queues at filling stations and shortages yesterday, with no sign of an improvement in supply.

Many motorists had expected the price increase to be followed by higher supplies from depots to petrol stations, easing the shortages that have persisted for weeks. Instead, the situation remained largely unchanged.

Drivers and motorcyclists in Dhaka and elsewhere in the country were still waiting for hours at filling stations to obtain fuel.

At some filling stations, motorcyclists who joined queues at midnight on Saturday were only able to buy fuel yesterday afternoon. Even then, some said they had not been allowed to fill their tanks.

Measures taken by the Energy Division to tackle hoarding and black market sales, including appointing tag officers at filling stations, forming monitoring teams at district and upazila level and conducting mobile court operations, have so far failed to improve the situation.

Energy Adviser to the Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB) M Shamsul Alam said the ministry had created a narrative that "fuel reserves are overflowing and that there is insufficient storage space".

"Yet people are standing on the streets for hours without getting fuel. The Energy Division, the BPC, the Competition Commission, the Directorate of National Consumer Rights Protection and the law enforcement agencies are all standing like wooden puppets. There are no words to describe this," he told TBS.

Shamsul Alam said the public could have accepted the difficulties if the government had acknowledged that supply is being disrupted by the Middle East conflict, the dollar shortage and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz.

"Instead, the ministry has created the opposite narrative and is not even admitting there is a fuel shortage. That is proof of the government's serious inefficiency and inability to control the supply chain," he said.

Asked whether fuel supplies would be increased after the price rise, Energy and Mineral Resources Division spokesman Monir Hossain Chowdhury said, "We are often supplying more than the allocated amount. But unless panic buying stops, the situation will not return to normal."

Sajjadul Karim Kabul, president of one faction of the Petrol Pump Owners' Association, said depot supplies had not increased despite the higher prices.

"What is the point of raising fuel prices? The crisis will not end unless supplies increase. If they supplied fuel at full capacity for one week, everything would calm down," he said.

Kabul said officials appear worried that the Strait of Hormuz could be closed again and are therefore reluctant to release more fuel.

"We do not even know whether the government has the fuel. They keep telling the press that reserves are at their highest level in 50 years. If there are reserves, then release the fuel," he said.

Kabul said his 13,500-litre tanker had received only 9,000 litres from the depot and that the same situation had continued for the past three days.

The government's position also drew criticism in parliament.

Rumin Farhana, member of parliament for Brahmanbaria-2, accused the government of misleading the public.

Speaking on a point of order yesterday, she said: "The government keeps saying there is no fuel shortage, but the reality is completely different. There are queues stretching for three kilometres. Drivers are waiting until midnight and still not getting fuel. If there is no crisis, why are there such long queues? Why has the government increased fuel prices?"

Fahmida Khatun, executive director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue, told this newspaper that the price increase had been necessary because the government could no longer bear the cost of rising international fuel prices caused by supply disruptions.

"Consumers now want access to fuel without difficulty. The government must ensure adequate supply in order to normalise the situation," she said.

Countrywide paralysis

The shortage is not confined to the capital, according to TBS correspondents. Reports from Savar suggest that 75% of filling stations lacked octane and petrol by Sunday morning. Local officials claimed that while 68% of pumps had diesel, the concentrated demand on a few functional stations created a sense of panic.

The crisis has also hit the transport sector in Bogura, where goods-carrying trucks are unable to secure sufficient diesel, and in Barisal and Brahmanbaria, where pump owners report receiving no clear timeline from depots regarding when normal supply will resume.

At some stations, such as the SI Chowdhury Filling Station in Savar, managers reported receiving only one-third of their usual weekly octane allocation.

Economist Rehman Sobhan today (19 April) said Bangladesh's loan defaulters have become embedded in the political system and are now creating barriers to financial and institutional reforms.

"Loan defaulters have become part of the political structure. They themselves are obstructing reforms. So the problem is no longer person-specific, it is structural," he said on the final day of the three-day 9th South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (Sanem) Annual Economists' Conference in Dhaka.

"Reform is not merely about passing laws, but a continuous process requiring implementation, enforcement and measurable outcomes," he added at the session titled "Romancing the Reform: The Bangladesh Story", held in Dhaka today.

Sobhan said many reform efforts fail because governments do not follow through after legislation. "The first step of reform is enacting laws, followed by building the necessary administrative framework, ensuring proper enforcement and finally evaluating results."

The session was moderated by Sanem Executive Director Selim Raihan. The keynote paper was presented by CPD Distinguished Fellow Debapriya Bhattacharya, while former Finance Secretary and former Comptroller and Auditor General Mohammad Muslim Chowdhury served as designated discussant.

Debapriya said Bangladesh has pursued multiple reforms since independence but progress has been slowed by what he termed a "kleptocratic legacy" of corruption, misuse of public resources, weakened institutions and collusion among political, bureaucratic and business elites.

He said reforms often fail due to weak political ownership, poor implementation capacity, vested interests, lack of consultation, corruption, financing constraints and weak accountability.

Referring to the interim government, he said despite strong rhetoric, it failed to establish a coherent reform framework, lacked an integrated economic vision and did not create a real-time system for citizens to monitor progress.

Banking sector at center of crisis

Debapriya said the banking sector has become one of the clearest examples of how reform plans are derailed during implementation. He said rising non-performing loans (NPLs) are weighing heavily on the economy, while repeated attempts to restructure weak banks have been blocked by political resistance.

"The government has finally disclosed the names of major defaulters. But the real question is what to do with banks that have effectively collapsed," he said.

He also criticised amendments to the Bank Resolution Act, saying the changes created an opportunity for former owners of failed banks to regain influence by injecting a relatively small amount of money.

"This is seen as the comeback of oligarchs in a new form, with political patronage," he said, warning that such policy reversals send the wrong signal when depositors and investors need confidence.

He also criticised overlapping administrative control in the sector, saying governance reforms have been delayed for too long. "Good intentions are not enough. If banking reforms are delayed again, the cost to the economy will be much higher," he warned.

However, he welcomed promises of greater central bank autonomy, stronger supervision, action against defaulters and depositor protection, but questioned whether those commitments would be implemented.

Reform needs political commitment

Rehman Sobhan said political parties make major reform promises during elections, but it remains unclear whether they have the leadership or commitment to deliver them.

He said past reforms succeeded only when they had strong public support, citing the Six-Point Movement as an example of a widely backed reform agenda.

He added that such mobilisation is now weak, with parties failing to effectively communicate manifestos to voters. "In many cases, even party members do not properly know their own manifesto," he said.

Questioning the policy debate culture, Sobhan asked how many commentators have direct government experience, arguing that reform cannot be fully understood without working inside the state. "Without that experience, it is hard to know who supports reform, who resists it, and why it fails," he said.

Recalling his time at the Planning Commission, he said passing reform laws was not the main challenge.

Using police reform as an example, he said success should be measured by outcomes in practice. If accountability mechanisms are introduced, their effectiveness must be tested over time by citizens and journalists, he said. "That would be the real test of reform," he added.

Sobhan said many reform proposals promoted by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are not new, but have been discussed for decades under successive governments.

According to him, governments often show limited progress to unlock loan disbursements, while development partners also have an interest in showing money has been spent.

"What actually happens in the long run is rarely examined," he said.

Need for performance budgeting

Sobhan said he has repeatedly proposed performance-based budgeting to show citizens what outcomes are achieved through public spending. "At present, we only see expenditure figures, with little analysis of results," he said.

Referring to health and education, he said allocations are often underutilised even as complaints persist over inadequate budgets. "If allocated money is not spent properly, where is the real problem?" he asked.

Citing India, Sobhan said major reforms such as the right to food, education and work were driven by strong citizen movements. In Bangladesh, he said civil society remains fragmented and unable to build unified pressure for large-scale reform.

He described the democratic process as the ultimate test of reform, calling for free, fair and inclusive elections. "A government becomes truly accountable when it accepts the people's verdict."